The late winter may soon be departed. A hot summer is sneaking around the corner. The monsoon may thankfully be normal.
Feels like March
Temperatures in many parts of the country are already above normal. The trend of rising temperatures across the country is making the weather feel like March.
Awfully hot weather is being felt in parts of Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and parts of Andhra Pradesh. While weather in north India is seesawing, strong north-westerly winds have been keeping the region blusterous.
Rain relief, short lived though
Kolkata received a record 39 mm of rainfall on Wednesday, surpassing the February cumulative of 30 mm in day. The downpour had a cooling effect on this part of West Bengal and adjoining Odisha with temperatures dropping by two to four degrees Celsius.
The trough (confluence of opposing winds, associated with thundershowers) behind the rainfall is likely to dissipate by day after. The temperatures will soon rebound to their erstwhile scorching levels.
Above normal summer
Seasonal outlook of temperatures for the months preceding monsoon (March-April-May) are well above the climatological (long period) averages as per International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) and Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC).
Even as both foreign agencies predict a warmer than normal summer in India, the state forecaster, India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced that it will introduce summer forecasts this year onwards. The forecasts will appear by mid-March.
Normal monsoon
The El Niño that has been in its severest phase in years is likely to turn neutral at last. As the surface temperatures of the waters of central and east-central Pacific crawls back to near average, the Indian monsoon is likely to be normal in 2016.
More objective forecasts for the monsoon will however be available by April. The current El Niño is to blame for deficient rainfall and a skewed winter in the country.
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