A report by Prahar, a not-for-profit organisation focused on public interest issues, has raised concerns over a rising threat to India’s growth as a global power. The report, titled *The Invisible Hand*, highlights a coordinated effort by adversaries both inside and outside India’s borders to destabilise the country’s progress, with cyberattacks emerging as a significant and rapidly escalating threat.
According to global data, cyberattacks rose by 76 per cent in the first quarter of 2024, with India among the most affected nations. In 2023, India ranked third globally in cyber incidents, experiencing over 79 million attacks—a 15 per cent increase from the previous year. The pace has only intensified in 2024, with more than 500 million incidents blocked in just the first quarter. By April 2024, cybercriminals had extracted over Rs 1,750 crore from Indians, who reported 740,000 complaints to the National Cybercrime Reporting Portal.
A stark prediction by Prahar suggests that without intervention, India could face close to 1 trillion cyberattacks annually by 2033, reaching a staggering 17 trillion by 2047. Such projections call for a robust, nationwide cyber defence system, as cyberattacks have now become one of the primary threats to India’s security, especially through the targeting of critical infrastructure and manipulation of citizens via illegal betting apps.
Emerging Threats: Internal And External
Retired Joint Secretary of the Indian government, Bhargav Mitra, voiced concern over the challenges India faces. “India’s growth story is accompanied by efforts, both at internal and external levels, to dent, damage, degrade, and dismantle the precincts of India’s core strengths. This trend has gathered momentum in the last several years. The targets are carefully selected, comprising India’s soft underbelly, such as economic, social, religious, and cultural ethos,” he said. Citing recent political instability in Bangladesh, Mitra suggested it serves as a cautionary example of how determined adversaries can create security issues for India.
Abhay Mishra, National Convenor and President of Prahar, warned of two distinct types of cyberattacks: traditional hackers seeking financial gain, and more insidious actors manipulating citizens into anti-national activities. He raised concerns about illegal betting apps, where vulnerable individuals are recruited for disruptive purposes, a strategy seen in neighbouring Bangladesh. “India’s security agencies must thoroughly investigate the prevalence of such possibilities,” Mishra urged.
Illegal online gambling, often controlled by foreign-owned, unregulated platforms, has proliferated in recent years. Estimated losses by Indian gamblers on these platforms could surpass Rs 1 lakh crore (approximately USD 12 billion). Meanwhile, transactions on illegal offshore betting apps could amount to Rs 2 lakh crore (around USD 24 billion) annually. Google searches for illegal gambling sites are 5 to 15 times higher than those for legal domestic platforms, with an annual growth of over 1,100 per cent in search volume.
Cyber Defence As National Defence
The report argues for a balanced approach to regulating online platforms, warning that outright bans can backfire, leading to black markets and underground networks. Anuj Agarwal, a techno-legal expert and Member of the Supreme Court Bar Association, advocated for societal responsibility to deter youth from engaging with illegal platforms. “Limiting legal domestic online platforms with outright bans or unwarranted restrictions only drives users deeper into the shadows, where they are more vulnerable to exploitation by the offshore platforms,” Agarwal explained. He suggested that a “risk minimisation” approach could be more effective, incorporating voluntary and mandatory user limits, self-exclusion tools, and user monitoring.
Retired IPS officer Muktesh Chander, an expert in cybercrime investigation, addressed the increasing role of cyberwarfare, which he described as “the fifth domain” of warfare. “A situation has arisen where not only individual hackers or disgruntled people, but also state-sponsored actors and states themselves are engaging in activities that sabotage important parameters of the economy,” Chander said, referencing recent cyber conflicts between Ukraine and Russia. He emphasised the need for a proactive stance in cyber defence, adding, “If a nation feels threatened in cyberspace, it has the right to self-defence measures, including attacks in cyberspace. NATO follows this principle.”
Blueprint For Cybersecurity
The report calls for a five-year national cybersecurity strategy and proposes consolidating all IT-related infrastructure under a single ministry for a coordinated approach. Prahar’s recommendations include developing a specialised cybersecurity workforce capable of both defence and offence.
Snehil Dhall, criminologist and founder of Crimophobia, highlighted the need for an expanded focus on cyber and space security. He pointed out the vulnerability of national infrastructure, such as satellites, to cyber threats and called for organisations like ISRO to be involved in developing space security measures. “Today, the reactive part of cybersecurity measures is on display in India while the proactive part of cybersecurity measures is missing,” Dhall noted. He advocated for “surgical strikes” on entities threatening national security, urging a shift from defensive to offensive strategies.
To address these complex challenges, Prahar’s report recommends a blend of community involvement, modernised legal frameworks, and the cultivation of a resilient cyber workforce. By building a comprehensive and adaptable cybersecurity framework that balances digital freedoms with safety, India can protect itself against the growing threats of the digital age, ensuring its rise on the global stage remains secure.
