Post By-Polls Politics; A Struggle In Vain

The results of UP and Bihar by-polls has enough reasons to provide impetus to the on-going ‘solidarity-exercise’ by non-BJP forces across the country, but it augurs well for BJP as well in view of general elections in 2019. If it is to the credit of the strategic alliance between Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party in UP that the BJP had to eat humble pie in the by-polls and consequent impact on other non-BJP parties to renew their alliances against the BJP too, it has given enough reasons for the BJP to rectify its strategies for the final round in 2019.

With its resounding success at the recent polls in the North-eastern States, the BJP had sounded a virtual death knell to its adversaries and was set to take on opponents in other States and at the Centre as well in the ensuing elections. But, the recent debacles suffered by the party have admittedly granted a fresh lease of life to the ruling Trinamool Congress in West Bengal in particular. The party’s landslide victory in the Tripura Assembly elections -- dislodging the 25-year old rule of the CPM -- had collateral impact on West Bengal politics too. The party not only routed the TMC in the Tripura elections, it made a dent in the bastion of the TMC that holds on to power in West Bengal in the garb of its anti-left stir.

In the light of the fact that the TMC did not allow the CPM to regain power in West Bengal in the last two consecutive assembly elections, the party often dubs itself as the sole force to keep West Bengal sheltered from the decades-old CPM misrule. The TMC is said to be afraid of losing its pro-public-anti-CPM image if the BJP swayed away the masses in the State in the backdrop of its performance in Tripura. Earlier, the BJP had also dealt a major blow to the TMC in Manipur where the latter was the main opposition party with eight seats till the Assembly elections in 2017. The BJP came to power in Manipur while the TMC was reduced to one seat in 2017 Assembly elections.

With the setback in the recent by-polls, however, the BJP and its adversaries as well have been left with no option except to mull ways to salvage their respective strongholds. If anti-BJP forces aim to cash-in on the situation and put up a joint front against the NDA juggernaut, the BJP has the options to revisit its strategies ahead of 2019 elections. In a counter-offensive measure against the possible threat of reprisal from the opposition unity in the 2019 elections, the BJP high command is said to have tentatively identified lapses on the part of its state leadership. Expressing anguish over its humiliating defeat in the Gorakhpur constituency in particular, the party high command is said to be contemplating a major decision to effect changes in its setup in Uttar Pradesh.

If strategists privy to the BJP high command are to be believed, it is the political intrigue by none other than Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh, Yogi Aditya Nath that brought about the debacle. Yogi Aditya Nath belongs to the Gorakhnath Math and unlike his predecessors, have never allowed his fellow members in the Math to achieve what the stature he has in politics.

          His utmost desire to hold on to simultaneous power at Gorakhnath Math by proxy and in the State as a whole is said to be the ulterior reasons behind the BJP’s major loss of face in the Gorakhpur Lok Sabha by-polls. Consequently, unlike on earlier occasions, neither did he propose to field a candidate from the Math for the Gorakhpur seat that he held for 29 years and vacated only to become CM in 2017, nor did he take the Math into confidence to decide on a candidate from a community that did not have dominance in the area. In a nutshell, the mutual distrust between Yogi and his fellow pontiffs at the Math cost dearly to the BJP in UP.

The Gorakhnath Math is situated in the Gorakhpur Lok Sabha Constituency and successive priests of the shrine have been holding the seat since 1967. Notwithstanding, in the recent by-polls at the Math booth, the BJP got merely 43 votes. The Gorakhnath Math has an ‘extra-religious’ role instead and has been deciding the political fate of the area for the past about a century.

As per details available in different archives, Mahant Digvijay Nath of the shrine joined the Congress in 1921 and was arrested for taking an "active part" in the Chauri Chaura incident that led to a halt on Gandhi's non-cooperation movement. He subsequently joined the Hindu Mahasabha in 1937 and soon became the head of the party's unit in United Provinces. He strongly opposed Gandhi's non-violent movement. Shortly after independence, he was arrested for inflaming passions against Gandhi. Mahant was imprisoned for nine months in connection with Gandhi’s assassination,

After his release from jail, he spearheaded the Ram Janmabhoomi movement in 1949, organising a 9-day long recitation of Ramcharit Manas, at the end of which the idols of Rama and Sita were placed inside the Babri Masjid. The Babri Masjid was locked down as a result, but it led to Digvijay Nath's elevation in the Hindu Mahasabha. He was appointed as the General Secretary at the national level and won the Lok Sabha seat of Gorakhpur in 1967.

Subsequently, his successor, Mahant Avaidyanath was elected as an MLA from Maniram as an independent in 1962, 1967, 1969, 1974 and 1977. He was also a Lok Sabha MP from Gorakhpur in 1970 and 1989. When the Sangh Parivar launched its own Ram Janmbhoomi movement, he joined the Bhartiya Janata Party and won the Lok Sabha seat from Gorakhpur on a BJP ticket in 1991 and 1996.

In a sequel to the political role played by the Math’s priests, Yogi Adityanath has been active in the BJP and played a key role in mobilising pro-Hindutva forces in the region. He founded the Hindu Yuva Vahini (Hindu Youth Force) that was alleged to be involved in communal activities including the Mau riots in October 2005 and the Gorakhpur riots in January 2007. Adityanath became a Lok Sabha MP from Gorakhpur in 1998 and continued to hold the seat until he was made Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh in March, 2017.

To top it all, both the BJP-led NDA combine and opposition parties under the UPA fold as well are, however, in quandary to deal with the situation amidst the trial of strength among their respective outfits. The BJP is struggling to restore order in its UP set-up by working out an amicable solution between the lunatic fringe associated with the Gorakhnath Math and Yogi Adityanath while different opposition parties that are aspiring for a grand alliance are, on the other hand, saddled with the problem of their respective issues and diktats.

However, in the course of exercising corrective measures, the BJP has to either stand by the Math -- that is riddled in controversy for Mahant Digvijay Nath’s involvement in the assassination of the father of the nation, Mahatma Gandhi, but as a radical outfit to counter secular forces in the State -- or dispense with Yogi who is purported to be the ‘Hindu face’ of the party. On the other hand, the TMC -- that has often been dictating its terms by holding on to power in West Bengal and having 34 MPs in Lok Sabha and 10 MPs in Rajya Sabha -- appears to have been left with no option except to succumb to ‘Coalition Rules’ set by others to survive the threat of the escalating influence of the BJP in West Bengal.