Monsoon Outlook Remains Favourable Despite Early Snags

The monsoon is just around the corner and the financial markets are upbeat with an improved outlook of the monsoon by Skymet, a private weather forecaster. The IMD, staying with tradition, is likely to issue an update of its earlier forecast in the first of June as a part of its second stage forecast.

Skymet has upgraded its forecast from 105 per cent to 109 per cent but the IMD is unlikely to change its monsoon prediction much from its previous prediction of 106 per cent with a model error of ± 5 per cent. The error range of 5 per cent will cover even a borderline 'above normal' monsoon. A monsoon is said to be above normal if rainfall is 110 per cent or more of the seasonal average, better known as the long period average or LPA.

The onset of the monsoon has turned into a contest in subversion as well. Skymet maintains an early onset between May 28 and 30. IMD disagrees with a delayed onset prediction of around June 7. The rain gods will decisively bestow the country with a winner by next week.

The monsoon is not going to make a tumultuous arrival either and prove to be killjoy for all the euphoria built around the monsoon's performance. Both IMD and Skymet have promulgated that the monsoon will witness a sluggish start in June. The monsoon will gain momentum in the second half of June or towards the end. Will the financial markets appreciate this and not capsize is something to be seen as the monsoon unfolds.

There will be however no drought this year. While it can be ruled out as a possibility due to the favourable monsoon forecasts, the IMD has expunged the word 'drought' from its vocabulary. Based on the recommendations of a committee formed to scrutinize the old terminologies, IMD has formally done away with the word 'drought' early this year.

The scenario of faltering monsoon would be described by a 'deficient year' for a deficit of more than 10 per cent with 20-40 per cent of the area in the country under drought conditions. The predicament will be called a 'large deficient year' if the deficit remains more than 10% and drought conditions spread to more than 40 per cent of the nation.

The IMD will refrain from calling any year as drought and the encumbrance will lie with the state governments to declare a drought. Satirically enough, the new terminology will ensure that India as country will not witness another drought even though many of its states may face severe droughts.