Jharkhand RS Polls: Horse-Trading On The Anvil?

The largest opposition party in the Jharkhand Assembly, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha is believed to have already conceded its defeat to Congress for the ensuing Rajya Sabha elections in the State. Even as the JMM has 17 MLAs in the State Assembly, the party succumbed to diktat by the Congress high command while negotiating to field a common candidate in the RS polls.

What transpired in the secret parley between Congress President Rahul Gandhi and Executive President of JMM, Hemant Soren, on Tuesday at the former’s residence in New Delhi, points to the political compulsions of the JMM and virtual subjugate to the Congress. In view of foregone conclusion of the RS polls for want of substantial numerical strength in the house and that of conflict of interests within the party over the choice of the candidate, Hemant Soren is supposed to have struck a strategic deal with the Congress. As per the deal, in return for the support to the Congress, the party would stand by the JMM in the latter’s struggle to salvage its stronghold against the BJP’s juggernaut in the State while contesting the ensuing Lok Sabha elections. The JMM is meant to play merely second fiddle in the RS elections.

If sources privy to the Congress high command are to be believed, Rahul Gandhi was articulate enough to get his views across that the Congress would support the JMM in the ensuing Parliament and Assembly elections in the State if the latter supported its candidate in the Rajya Sabha elections. The Congress President is said to have also cited the consensus that was accorded to the JMM for the Rajya Sabha elections in 2016. The JMM had agreed upon the proposal to support the Congress candidate in the RS elections in 2018 if the latter supported it in the 2016 RS polls, the Congress leadership reminded. Consequently, the Congress had supported JMM candidate and younger brother of Hemant Soren, Basant Soren, though he lost the election to BJP candidate Mahesh Poddar in 2016 RS elections.

Incidentally, the Congress has only seven MLAs and as per the strength of the house, each candidate requires at least 27 votes. Notably, the strength of the house has been reduced from 81 to 80 with the disqualification of JMM MLA Yogendra Mahato in connection with his conviction from a local court.

Even with the support of the JMM, the Congress may, however, be able to fetch 24 votes only. In the garb of anti-BJP solidarity, the Congress aims to muster support of 2 more MLAs of the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha. The JVM has been carrying out a virtual war against the BJP for defection of its 6 MLAs to the latter’s fold. Even so, the Congress would remain short of one MLA to reach the magic number of 27 in the RS polls. Incidentally, there are 6 Independent MLAs and the Congress is believed to be eyeing them to ensure its victory.

Sources claim that Congress is likely to field the party’s senior leader, Abhishek Manu Singhvi from Jharkhand. Singhvi is the RS member from Rajasthan at present and his term is expiring on April 13. Incidentally, Jharkhand has set a history in sending a number of outsiders to the Rajya Sabha – notwithstanding the controversy for compromising with its impeccable credentials by allowing the illegitimate practice of horse trading.

Notably, RS aspirants from different States of the country have preferred to try their luck from Jharkhand and they have often achieved success by luring away MLAs from smaller political parties. Consequently, barring the 2014 RS elections, the last three biennial RS polls in 2010, 2012 and 2016 in the State came under a cloud for the alleged abuse of money power and horse-trading and are being probed by investigating agencies at the behest of the Election Commission and Jharkhand High Court as well.

If the Congress party has resolved to put the fate of its senior leader Singhvi at stake knowing well the fluid situation, the possible threat of horse-trading cannot be ruled out once again in the State. Although the ruling BJP-AJSU alliance has a numerical strength of 47 in the house and it is all set to bag one of the two seats to be polled, it is contemplating decision to field a candidate for the second seat as well. As the alliance requires seven more votes to achieve the magic number of 27 with its remaining 20 votes for the second seat, the six independent MLAs are potent enough to cater to the need.

The 6 independent MLAs are believed to be game changers for the second RS seat from the State and moves are on to lure them away by both the contesting team of political parties. Incidentally, both the BJP and Congress have preferred to withhold the decision to declare the official candidates so far. Even in the BJP’s Parliamentary Board meeting that was held on Wednesday to decide candidates for RS elections in different States, the decision on the name of the party’s candidates for Jharkhand was kept on hold. Sources claim that the BJP high command wished to bag both the seats and was contemplating negotiations with the disgruntled faction of the JMM too.

The BJP Parliamentary Board was to meet on Friday again to decide candidates for the rest of the RS seats in the different States including Jharkhand but it was deferred as party President Amit Shah was said to be preoccupied elsewhere. Meanwhile, Jharkhand Chief Minister Raghubar Das discussed the matter with Shah on the sidelines of the oath-taking ceremony of newly elected Chief Minister of Tripura, Biplab Deb on Friday.

On the other hand, the decision to support a common candidate from the Congress fold is hardly acceptable to a faction of the JMM MLAs and has stirred up a hornets’ nest. Even JMM President and former Chief Minister, Sibu Soren has expressed displeasure over the Congress-JMM deal. Coming out with a public statement, he was sceptical about the credentials of the Congress and sought a written assurance from the Congress high command that the latter would support the JMM in the Lok Sabha elections. Consequently, Hemant Soren has been left with no option except to endorse the demand by his father. However, the issue was resolved on Friday during the meeting between Congress in-charge of Jharkhand, R.P.N. Singh and Sibu Soren at the latter’s residence.

To top it all, there is enough reason to presume that the ploy to capture the second seat could vitiate the electioneering in the State again.