Geopolitical Resilience For Indian Companies
It's in crisis that inventiveness is born, as well as discoveries made and great strategies arise. He who overcomes crisis, overcomes himself, without getting overcome.
Albert Einstein
There have been turbulent occurrences recently that have had an impact on the entire world. Among these international events is the ongoing war in Ukraine, which has lasted for two years; the Israeli-Hamas conflict is becoming more and more intense; and the US-China trade war. All of these things have increased volatility, which emphasises how important it is for leaders to recognise and respond to political and geopolitical dangers. This is especially crucial for the private sector that engages in international trade and investment.
Global functioning and stability assumptions are now frequently put to the test by both predicted and unanticipated events that can happen quickly. More importantly, geopolitics is a component of global risk and a channel of contagion that can turn a liquidity or sovereign crisis into a systemic breakdown of the global order.
Converting geopolitical data into useful consequences for businesses and decision-makers is a crucial task. Company executives may get unduly obsessed with their daily operations and, as a result, fail to approach their assessments with anticipation. Neither the Israel-Hamas wars nor the war in Ukraine occurred overnight. We were unaware of how disputes were developing, which caught us off guard.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine began when Ukraine decided to join NATO in 1991. Russia perceived this as an effort by the adversarial NATO military alliance to encircle Russian borders. once gaining independence, Ukraine had previously declared its neutrality and non-alignment with military blocs. However, once pro-Western Zelensky became president and indicated interest in joining NATO, the country faced criticism from Russia.
The desire for Palestine's statehood, which dates back at least 75 years, is at the centre of the conflict between Israel and Palestine. The notion that Israel seeks to force Palestinians from their homes so that Jewish settlers can occupy their land is the direct root of the current conflict. Furthermore, Hamas realised that key Arab countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were shifting in favour of Israel, which would hurt their cause. Thus, it was merely a question of time until Hamas orchestrated an event to garner global attention once again for their cause. The turning point was the destruction of the Al Aqsa Mosque. But now that the fighting has spread to Lebanon and Yemen, the already complicated situation has become more challenging.
Brexit is the result of Britain's recent rebellion against the EU's overbearing bureaucracy. These days, a growing number of members—Poland, Hungary, and Italy, in particular—openly disagree with EU policies in light of their national interests. These occurrences may eventually lead to a crisis that affects international corporate interests.
These incidents demonstrate that most events proceed slowly, sometimes taking years to reach the flashpoint. However, if an organisation sets up procedures, trains senior management to monitor these developments, and raises awareness of them, they can monitor these developments, conduct scenario analysis, and maintain backup plans, including C and B, in case something goes wrong.
It implies that companies need to reset their processes and competencies to make sure that:
Certainly, possessing the ability to anticipate trends, navigate through crises, and manage unforeseen external factors is now an essential skill in the realm of international business.
Though they can be learned, these talents are not taught (at least not in India). It would be helpful if the business schools included this topic in their MBA curriculum and also conducted short-term executive training programmes with the assistance of foreign affairs professionals, given that we are currently functioning in the fast-moving, uncertain VUCA environment.
Undoubtedly, being able to identify trends, handle unanticipated external influences, and manoeuvre through crises is now a crucial skill in the world of international business.
Suhayl Abidi is an MBA from FMS Delhi and Information Management from Leeds Polytechnic, UK. He is a consultant with Centre for VUCA Studies, Amity University & a practitioner in Organisational Learning and Knowledge Management with 27+ years of corporate experience including Reliance Industries, Essar and Piramal Group. He has co-authored two books “The VUCA Company”, “The VUCA Learner” and several articles.
Dr. Manoj Joshi is a Fellow Institution of Engineers, Professor of Strategy, Director, Centre for VUCA Studies, Amity University, with 30+ years of experience in industry & research. He has authored 60+ articles, co-authored three books “The VUCA Company”, “The VUCA Learner”, “Technology Business Incubators” and is also on the Editorial Board of several international refereed Journals.
Dr. Ashok Kumar is Ph.D with professional qualifications in Business Management & Demography with advanced training in Management at Ashorne Hill College of Management, UK and has authored books and papers. He is a consultant with Centre for VUCA Studies, Amity University and has 47 years of experience as Professor of IIM Indore, Professor at Amity University and GM in SAIL
