Explained: Why Apple's iPhone 16 Is Set For A Bumper Launch In India

Apple's iPhone 16 line is poised for a blockbuster launch, with availability in stores just a week away on September 20. The phones will go on pre-order later today. Apple introduced the iPhone 16 earlier this week at an event at its Cupertino campus in the Steve Jobs Theatre, with starting prices ranging from Rs 79,900 for the iPhone 16 to Rs 184,900 for the premium iPhone 16 Pro Max.

Apple has reduced the prices of the “Pro” models by up to Rs 15,000 in India following recent budget concessions offered to smartphone makers importing parts into the country, with Apple being the primary beneficiary. Additionally, this marks the first time Apple will manufacture its entire iPhone series portfolio in India, including the Pro models, after starting production of the iPhone 15 entry-level models in 2023. This decision allowed for simultaneous launches in the Indian and US markets for the first time. Apple has seen consistent revenue growth in India for nine consecutive quarters, and analysts have informed BW Businessworld that Apple is likely to experience its best-ever iPhone launch in the country.

Apple's focus on generative AI with the introduction of Apple Intelligence, along with the reduction in prices for older iPhone models, is expected to be a significant factor contributing to a potential boost in iPhone sales, which could reach record levels.

“After the launch of new iPhone models by Apple in September, we typically see a price drop for older generation models. Therefore, this year, the iPhone 15 and 13 are expected to perform well during the upcoming festival buying season. Among the iPhone 16 series, the iPhone 16 is likely to do particularly well, and the iPhone Pro should also benefit from the decrease in launch prices (due to the reduction in customs duty on Completely Built Units (CBU) smartphones by the government). We estimate that the iPhone 16 series may achieve around 1 million units in shipments from now until December 24,” stated Navkendra Singh, Associate Vice President at IDC India.

Counterpoint Research anticipates that Apple could see a 22 percent year-over-year increase in overall iPhone unit sales in Q4 of 2024. They add that Apple's profitability is expected to improve as the average selling price of iPhone models rises, with more consumers opting for the higher-priced models.

“We estimate a 22 percent year-over-year increase in shipments for Apple's overall iPhone unit sales in Q4 2024. The iPhone 16 series is also expected to contribute significantly to this increase compared to the iPhone 15 series' performance last year. Overall, the average selling price for Apple is rising, which should result in a noticeable bump in Apple iPhone revenues this holiday season as users upgrade to newer and higher-capacity models," said Neil Shah, Vice President and Co-Founder of Counterpoint Research.

CyberMedia Research indicates that annual shipments could grow by 30 percent, although this includes heightened demand for older models that have now become more affordable.

“CMR's market insights indicate that more consumers are prioritizing the latest iPhones, reversing the historical trend of opting for older generations. CMR estimates suggest a strong 30 percent year-over-year growth in shipments compared to the iPhone 15 generation during the launch quarter. This growth trajectory positions Apple to potentially capture up to 8 percent of the hyper-competitive Indian smartphone market by the end of 2024,” said Prabhu Ram, Vice President of the Industry Research Group at CyberMedia Research.

Apple's overall market share in the Indian smartphone market is expected to grow significantly, potentially rising from 6.5 percent to 8-8.5 percent, according to the latest IDC smartphone tracker, which is currently dominated by brands like Xiaomi, Vivo, and Samsung. During this period, Apple could achieve a dominant position in the premium segment of the market, which may grow to as much as 86 percent.

“Considering that we expect growth in sales in the luxury segment (priced above Rs 50,000) and that the prices of the iPhone 16 series are lower than those of its predecessor series at launch, this should help Apple add another 1.5-2 percent to its sales for the calendar year 2024. Overall, Apple is expected to capture 8-8.5 percent of the total smartphone sales by volume in India for 2024. Notably, in the luxury segment, Apple's market share could reach as high as 86 percent, with Samsung being the other major stakeholder. Remaining notable players will include OnePlus and Google,” stated Faisal Kawoosa, Founder and Chief Analyst at TechARC.

BW Businessworld attended Apple’s “Glowtime” event at its Cupertino campus, where the company unveiled updates to the cameras, AI features, performance, and battery life of the iPhones. Additionally, minor design tweaks were made, while new hardware controls were introduced. The iPhone 16 Pro models boast a range of new features, including the powerful A18 and A18 Pro processors, a dedicated camera control hardware button, upgraded cameras in both models, enhanced battery life, and larger screens (Pro and Pro Max only). Additionally, the models come equipped with studio microphones, facilitating new professional workflows.