Climate Change Exposes 85% of Indian Districts to Extreme Weather Events: Report
According to the study, extreme weather occurrences have surged fourfold in recent decades, with the last ten years alone seeing a fivefold rise
Over 85 per cent of Indian districts are now vulnerable to extreme climate events such as cyclones, floods, droughts, and heatwaves. Alarmingly, 45 per cent of these districts are witnessing a shift in weather patterns, with traditionally flood-prone areas becoming drought-affected and vice versa, a new study by IPE Global and ESRI India revealed.
The report, which was presented at the Climate Technology Summit’s plenary session on "Leveraging GIS Technology to Mitigate Climate Risks," highlights a sharp increase in the frequency and intensity of these events. According to the study, extreme weather occurrences have surged fourfold in recent decades, with the last ten years alone seeing a fivefold rise. The analysis is based on a comprehensive 50-year assessment from 197ṣ3 to 2023, using spatial and temporal modelling to explore the changing climate patterns across India.
Rising Climate Extremes
“The landscape of climate risks in Indian districts is rapidly evolving,” said Abinash Mohanty, Head of Climate Change and Sustainability Practice at IPE Global and the author of the study. He added, “The rise in extreme events has left nine out of ten Indians exposed to climate disasters, largely driven by a 0.6°C increase in global temperatures over the past century. Our study suggests that by 2036, over 1.47 billion Indians will be exposed to severe climate risks.”
The report also points to alarming examples of climate events in India, including landslides triggered by erratic rainfall in Kerala, floods in Gujarat, and the disappearance of snow cover on Om Parvat. These incidents highlight the increasing unpredictability and severity of extreme weather in the country.
Shifting Patterns and Vulnerabilities
The study identifies certain regions as particularly vulnerable to climate extremes. Over 60 per cent of districts in states like Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, and Assam are already experiencing multiple climate events. Eastern India is most prone to extreme flooding, closely followed by the northeastern and southern zones. The frequency of flood events has increased fourfold in these areas, driven by factors like greenhouse gas emissions, unplanned land use, and other unsustainable activities.
There has also been a twofold increase in drought events, particularly in agricultural areas, while cyclone occurrences have risen fourfold. Mohanty emphasised the importance of addressing these trends, calling for hyper-local risk assessments and the establishment of climate-risk observatories to help mitigate the impacts.
Swapping Trends in Climate Risks
A significant finding of the report is the "swapping trend" seen in 45 per cent of districts, where areas once prone to floods are now facing drought conditions, and vice versa. Districts such as Srikakulam, Guntur, and Kurnool in southern India, along with several others in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, have shifted from flood-prone to drought-prone. At the same time, regions like Rajkot, Ajmer, and Aurangabad have experienced both floods and droughts in recent years.
These shifts are linked to local climate change drivers, including deforestation and the destruction of wetlands. Districts that have been identified as climate hotspots have undergone a 65 per cent change in land use over the past few decades.
Action Required
Ashwajit Singh, Founder and Managing Director of IPE Global, stressed the urgency of climate adaptation. “While India's per capita CO2 emissions are just one-third of the global average, the country bears the brunt of climate change,” he said. Singh pointed out that India experienced an 8 per cent GDP loss in 2022 due to climate impacts, along with a 7.5 per cent decrease in cumulative capital wealth.
“To meet our climate goals, we need to shift focus from mitigation to adaptation. Our current underfunding of climate resilience risks long-term sustainability,” Singh added, emphasising the need for partnerships, innovation, and community empowerment to make India climate-resilient.
The study recommends the establishment of a Climate Risk Observatory (CRO) to help decision-makers at various levels assess and respond to climate risks. It also calls for the creation of an Infrastructure Climate Fund (ICF) to support long-term investment in climate-resilient infrastructure.
The findings from the study highlight the urgent need for a more localised approach to climate risk management. With extreme weather events increasing in frequency and severity, India must prioritise resilience-building strategies to safeguard its economy and infrastructure.
