BJP under PM Modi likely to get over 230 seats in 2019: Lord Meghnad Desai

On PM Modi’s chances in 2019 general elections
The chances are very high. BJP is likely to garner over 230 seats. Perhaps more. Now with the whole situation being changed, with the counter-terrorist attack it is very difficult to know what effect that would have. I think it will be 230 if not more. I would say 230 before the Pulwama attack. So I don’t know what will happen (now). It (surgical strikes) will help him.

On the overall political and geopolitical situation in India and the subcontinent
The geopolitical situation after the counter-attack on 26 February will help Modi. While this situation may continue for a little bit longer, it is a very strong reaction. He has not attacked, just attacked the terrorist camp. And India can get away with saying it is not a military act, it is a counter-terrorist act, which is what they are saying. I think that is a very clever way of showing that you can retaliate but not get into a general war. Of course, we don’t know what Pakistan is doing. But I think so far so good.

On the economy under PM Modi
PM Modi has produced five years of 7 per cent growth on an average. Five consecutive years of more than steady growth rate has been very rare. There was a very good growth rate from 2004 to 2008. But after that, it was up and down and inflation went up very much. Whereas, under the Modi government, inflation has been coming down. Right now, (it) is very very low. So that I think is a plus.

On PM Modi as a leader
He is a very good leader and I rate him very highly.  (He is) one of the best PMs that we have had. I don’t particularly like Indira Gandhi. Modi goes out and leads everything. He wants to go the whole hog and launch things and finish them off. Things like electrification under Rajiv Gandhi (Grameen) Vidyutikaran Yojana had remained unfinished (under the previous government). Modi has come and finished that. He initiated the drive for rural housing, toilets. For me, it is health and rural reforms that are more important of his achievements. I really very much appreciate what he has done on health and on cleanliness.

On $5-trillion and $10-trillion economy that India aspires to be
Well, I don’t take all these targets very seriously. Because they are based on compound rate of growth. If you keep on growing at such and such per cent, such and such will happen. I think in essence if India can maintain 7 per cent growth on average for another 10 years, it can double income in 10 years. I think if India is a $2-trillion (economy) now, it could get to $4 trillion in another 10 years very easily and above $4 trillion in nominal terms. But the growth rate has to be maintained.