<p><em><strong>Sutanu Guru</strong> wonders what exactly India can do with troubled and troublesome Pakistan</em><br><br>The acronym PPP means many things to many people. For those talking about large industrial and infrastructure projects, PPP means public private partnerships (though some would prefer to call it private plunder of public!). For new age economists, PPP actually means purchasing power parity. For idealistic Indians unwilling to let the stark reality of hostility and terror stop them standing on candle lit vigils on the Wagah border, PPP stands for the fervently desired Pakistan peace problem. But for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his team of geopolitical, foreign policy and security advisors, the best full form for the acronym PPP would Pakistan, a Permanent Problem. Chest thumping nationalists are already doing what they excel at after Modi held a one hour bilateral meeting with Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaj Sharif in Russia: they were thumping their chests. The joint statement issued after the “dialogue” had no mention of Kashmir. That, for our nationalists was yet another grand victory for Modi.<br><br>People who still dream of restoring the “Akhand Bharat” can afford to nurse and nurture such delusions. Not ordinary Indians; and definitely not policy makers. There mere fact that no public mention was made of Kashmir is neither here, nor there. In a day or two, Pakistan is capable of doing mischief that would bring Kashmir squarely back in focus. Let’s face it: if the core issue that India has with Pakistan is terrorism, Kashmir has been a core issue for Pakistan since 1947. After all, it has fought three wars with India over Kashmir. Calling Pakistan irrational for wanting to gobble up Kashmir is not going to help. In the long run, for any kind of peace and trust to prevail, and for the two nations to behave like ordinary neighbors, both the Kashmir and the terror issue have to be resolved.<br><br>This is where the Permanent Problem called Pakistan crops up. Nawaj Sharif might have shaken hands with Modi and nice words were aired subsequently. But the fact is that Sharif cannot take “any” decision related to India without the tacit, or explicit approval of the Pakistani military establishment. There are absolutely no signs yet that the Pakistani military establishment has come to the conclusion that its policy of inflicting a thousand bleeding cuts on India is not working and in fact becoming counterproductive. When close to 150 school children were massacred last December in Peshawar, many optimists felt the Pakistani military would finally accept the reality that it can no longer afford to distinguish between good terrorists (who target India) and bad terrorists (who target Pakistan). There is ample evidence to suggest that the good and bad terrorists are now allies and that Pakistani citizens are facing brunt of this Islamist fantasy that has spiraled out of control. But are the generals convinced yet? Not by a long shot. They still seem to think that the likes of Hafeez Saeed and LeT are useful weapons to keep India in a state of apprehension, if not terror.<br><br>This will become even more glaring as the gap between India and Pakistan widens. Unless things go very wrong in the future, the Pakistani economy would be puny in comparison with the Indian economy by 2025. There is simply no way Pakistan would be able to match Indian expenditure and investment on defense, even f it continues to receive generous aid from “allies” like China and the United States. Quite simply, India would be way out of the league of Pakistan in the next decade. The only “military” threat that Pakistan can pose is nuclear weapons. But would a future leadership of Pakistan be so mad as to invite complete self annihilation by launching nukes on India? That leaves terrorism as the only strategic weapon that Pakistan can continue to use: in Kashmir, and elsewhere in India. Short of fighting a war that could potentially cripple the Indian economy, what else can India do? Waiting for powers like America to help is stupid; as long as their “homelands” are not directly threatened by Pakistani terrorism and terrorists, America, China, Germany et al will only “urge peaceful dialogue” and maybe diplomatically spank Pakistan once in a while. Quite simply, there still is no incentive for the Pakistani military to stop using terrorism as an instrument of foreign policy with India.<br><br>There really are no easy options for India. That’s why this author thinks India could face a Permanent Pakistan Problem.</p>
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