Will We Have Adequate Power To Charge EVs?
Over the last decade, the magnetic allure for electric vehicles (EVs) has strengthened. The Tesla Model Y, an EV that will soon be on the roads, is expected to become “the world’s best-selling car.”
Take a deep breath: An EV is about to become the world’s highest-selling car. History will record this as a turning point in civilisation. It will be a victory for modern technology and a major shot in the arm for efforts to reign in carbon emissions.
Unfortunately, every silver lining has a dark cloud. As we turn the corner in human mobility and “green light” the future, it makes sense to pause and explore the dark road ahead that EVs could chart for us. I am no pessimist, but looking ahead may help avoid the roadblocks to progress.
However, before we look over the horizon, more sensational news is on the cards. The list of the World’s Top 20 EVs has 17 Chinese cars, as opposed to only two until two years ago.
A recent report in CleanTechnica points out a fascinating aspect of the top 20 list. CleanTechnica says that the three non-Chinese cars on the list (Tesla Model Y, Tesla Model 3, and the Volkswagen ID.4) “can be considered honorary Chinese EVs, as a large share of their production occurs in China.” Without a doubt, China is well set to ride the EV wave.
Not surprisingly, South China’s Shenzhen city, last July, became the first in the world to make self-driven cars legal. China is already sliding into the fast lane to commercialize autonomous vehicles.
You may have guessed what comes next— among the top platforms used for autonomous vehicles is the BYD Qui (pronounced ‘Chin”), which is also number one on the list of the world’s top 20 EVs.
China will marry the world’s most popular EV with autonomous technology, perhaps creating an advantage that will be difficult to beat. What do the two pieces of headline-making news— the surge in EV sales and China’s lead in the industry— mean for us?
Before trying to arrive at some logical conclusions about the future of EVs, a slight diversion is in place. The history of EVs is deeply interwoven with gasoline-powered cars. Thomas Edison encouraged Henry Ford to produce affordable EVs (they were neighbours in Detroit).
Edison may have done this in a shrewd bid to create a bigger market for his nickel-iron batteries! So EVs are not new news. Only China’s lead in the industry is.
The first EVs were on the road as early as the 1890s. Within the next decade, one in three cars in the US was an EV. Then, Henry Ford’s Model T arrived in 1908, and the cost benefits of assembly line mass production killed the EV.
A full hundred years later, EVs are back to save the world from the unrelenting effects of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The transportation industry contributes approximately 27 per cent of the total US GHG, making it the largest contributor to GHG emissions in the US. When EVs take those fossil-fuel-powered vehicles off the road, it will be a game changer in the fight against climate change.
This background information prepares us to analyse history, current developments, and the future. We know there is a massive surge in the global demand for electricity. The 6 per cent rise in demand in 2021 was the largest ever in absolute terms. The spike was so huge that last year China and India were on the brink of a power crisis.
Coal shortages were resulting in massive power disruptions in both countries. Worldwide, coal-fired power generation grew by 9 per cent, resulting in a 7 per cent growth in coal-related emissions. This is ironic.
Emissions from electricity generation need to decline by 55 per cent to meet net zero emission goals by 2050. As a fallback for power production, natural gas also does not look encouraging, with Russia cutting back supplies to Europe. Power from renewable sources grew just 6 per cent in 2021 over the previous year, but not enough to look promising.
Besides, renewable energy sources are not a solution for many geos where wind, solar, geothermal, and ocean energy are unpredictable or inaccessible.
So, how will we increase the production of power required to charge all those EVs coming onto our roads? EVs will present a new challenge to power grids. An EV requires about 30 kilowatt-hours to travel 160 km. This is the average electricity an average American home uses every day.
By 2050, the number of EVs on the road will suck up so much energy that the US must boost production by 38 per cent.
India aims to have 30 per cent EV sales penetration by 2030. That is about 79 million EVs on the road, hungry for power. Informed calculations suggest an urgent need for green power generation if EV consumption requirements are to be met.
India needs to generate about 50 MW of electricity per day from renewable energy for every 1 million EVs, each requiring an average of 30 kilowatt-hours. India can harvest solar energy. But the capital requirements for solar power are enormous. Besides, solar plants need space.
We are headed for a massive roadblock for EVs if we do not do something about power generation. Could “energy anxiety” supersede “range anxiety” for EV owners?
China is thinking through that question. It has built batteries for EVs that give cars a range of 1,000 km on a single charge. That is one problem— range anxiety— taken care of. It is also leading with the production of EV batteries. The country’s Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) provides 30 per cent of the world’s EV batteries.
The number of Chinese lithium-battery startups going public is on the rise. These companies are busy innovating, and investing in EV battery stocks is becoming as attractive, if not more, than investing in EV stocks.
However, do you see China smartly using a bit of history in the emerging picture? The difference between the 1890s, when EVs first appeared, and now is that China is becoming both the Henry Ford of EVs and the Edison of batteries.
There remains the question of building capacity for power generation to meet EV demand. It is a tricky question, but chances are, given the political developments and the variable nature of renewables, we may see an acceleration in the development of small modular reactor (SMR) technology.
This August saw a stunning headline: The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission certified the design for a brand-new SMR from NuScale, a nuclear power startup. These SMRs are tiny, cheap and modular.
They can be easily shipped and assembled where required, each providing enough energy to power 60,000 homes. NuScale is not alone. Radiant Nuclear is also racing to provide an emission-free SMR.
Toshiba is developing very small advanced nuclear reactors. And yes, in 2016, China began building SMRs of its own. Keep a close watch on the race to get SMRs certified and shipped. They spell who will dominate and drive the EV industry.
