Many years ago, when Narendra Modi was not even considered to be a serious claimant to be the BJP's prime ministerial candidate, best selling author Chetan Bhagat had written a controversial column in
The Times of India. In that column, me had ordered aloud if Rahul Gandhi would be the Bahadur Shah Zaffar of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty. Pundits, intellectuals and Congress sycophants in mainstream media had mocked Bhagat. He still gets mocked by intellectuals. But even as the Election Commission is yet to notify results of the assembly elections in Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry, it looks like Chetan Bhagat must be chuckling even as intellectuals struggle to describe the Congress journey to the edge of the precipice. The question that has been asked often since 2014 has to be asked yet again in the aftermath of the assembly election results: Can the Congress survive as a viable national party and rival to the BJP?
Look at a hypothetical scenario in the not too distant mid 2018. By then, a verdict on the performance of the Modi regime would have been formed in kinds of most voters for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Rahul Gandhi is busy with his strategists and advisors (Will Prashant Kishor still be around?). For all we know, Modi might lose in 2019. But this commentary is not about Modi and the Congress. This is about the on going collapse of the Congress, a party that once dominated Indian politics like a Colossus. As Rahul Gandhi prepares to take on Modi, he is pondering over the loss of Karnataka in the 2018 assembly elections to the BJP. There is a distinct possibility that when Rahul, his band of advisors and media personalities who are still analysing yet another “evolution” of Rahul as a pan Indian leader, look at the political map of India, they would find that the Congress rules in not a single state except some in the north east.
Today, the Congress has lost Assam and Kerala. Since 2014, it has lost badly in Jammu & Kashmir, Haryana, Jharkhand and Maharashtra. It survives in Bihar on the crumbs thrown by Lalu Yadav and Nitish Kumar. Which other states will go for assembly elections between today and mid 2018? They are Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat and Karnataka. Of these, the only state where the Congress has any hope whatsoever of coming to power is Punjab. But virtually every pollster and analyst suggests that there is a wave in Punjab that would sweep AAP to power. It has no hope in Uttar Pradesh. It has an insignificant, outside chance of upsetting the BJP in Gujarat in 2017. It will almost certainly lose Himachal and Uttarakhand. And there are clear indications that the BJP is gearing up to storm back to power in Karnataka in 2018.
Clearly, “Congress Mukt Bharat” will no no longer be a slogan but might become reality by 2018. How will the Congress hope or plan to step back from that abyss? The biggest challenge Rahul Gandhi and his strategists will face is funds. With not a single state under its belt, how in hell would the Congress amass a formidable war chest needed to fight Lok Sabha elections? You already here whispers of how Congress already seems to struggle to “raise” funds. By 2018, the struggle could become life threatening. Even in 2003, when not many gave Sonia Gandhi any hope of upsetting the Atal Bihari Vajpayee led NDA, vast swathes of India were ruled by the Congress. Even in 2013, when objective analysts were sensing a Modi wave, the Congress was ruling “resource rich” states like Karnataka, undivided Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Haryana. The oft forgotten fact about Indian elections is: you need literally truck loads of cash.
Of course, only the naïve and prejudiced will pronounce with certainty that the end of the Congress as we know is over. But then, neither will nostalgia and find hopes that Modi will stumble badly in the next three years help Congress re emerge as a viable national political party. In 1984, Atal Bihari Vajpayee was shell shocked after Madhav Rao Scindiainflicted a humiliating defeat on him. The BJP managed to win just 2 out of 543 Lok Sabha seats. And yet, Vajpayee became Prime Minister within 12 years. Congress supporters must be hoping for a miracle like that to unfold in the future. But does Rahul Gandhi have the stamina,the ability and the willingness to fight the long and lonely fight? This author doesn't think so.
