US-India Relations Are Not Subject To Temporary Disarray
Nikki Haley's task was cut out in India. A rising star in Trump's cabinet is the United States Permanent Representative to the United Nations, and, has served as first female governor of South Carolina and doing so, she becomes the second Indian-American to hold the title after fellow Republican Bobby Jindal.
But her visit also comes when the tension is on the rise for many of the president Trump's economic reparation was directed to India as well.
The US abruptly postponed '2+2 dialogue' between the defence minister and foreign minister of both countries that had been scheduled on 6 July. Before, a trade tariff wars were unleashed as the US had invoked Section 232 (b) of the US Trade Expansion Act of 1962 to impose 25 per cent duties on steel and aluminium from India.
And, India had taken the issue to the World Trade Organisation (WTO). Besides, the US is also pointing at India against the export subsidy program.
The foreign policy of the US has never been so full of dubiety with the heady mix of geo-economic overlapping in dissonance. And, the skeptics are in haste to write down the optimism that had all the finer nuances of strategic partnerships between India and U.S. Is that so? Foreign policymaking always demands change and adapt to take on the headwinds.
During a session organized at Observer Research Foundation (ORF) in New Delhi, Nikki Haley began her speech by calling Iran a "threat" and asked India to refrain from buying oil from Iran. She emphasised the same thing during a meeting with PM Narendra Modi as well. In May, the US has withdrawn from the Iran nuclear deal under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which was an agreement between Iran and what's called the P5+1 (the US, Britain, France, Russia, China, and Germany). "You must align your interest with the US," she said in a direct message to India. That puts the Indian foreign policies in the web of difficult circumstances.
India-US bilateral strengths
Whether we are aligned or non-aligned that fact remains that the US is India's growing trade partners and that should be the direction in the ambiguity of rhetoric. Economics is the levellers in the mess of rhetoric.
Total bilateral trade (goods and services) between India and the US increased at a CAGR of 11.4 per cent at $126.1 billion in 2017 from $20 billion in 2000.
In this period, the growth in bilateral trade was accelerated by services trade, which grew at a CAGR of 13.5 per cent. Goods trade grew at a CAGR of 10.2 per cent. During the year 2017, goods trade contributed 59 per cent and trade in services contributed 41 per cent of the total India-US bilateral trade of $126.1 billion.
Bilateral trade in goods has increased to $77.3 billion in 2017 (CAGR of 10.3 per cent), from a $ 14 billion in 2000, making the US second largest trading partner. Out of this, India exported $48.6 billion to the US and imported $25.7 billion from the US.
The US is the sixth largest source of foreign direct investment in India. The cumulative FDI inflows from the US during April 2000 to December 2017 amounted $22.06 billion constituting 6 per cent of the total FDI inflows in India.
The Indo-Pacific in 'Asia Nexus'
What Obama could not name it, Trump called it- Indo-Pacific from the Asia-Pacific. Though the terminology goes back to 2007 as Japanese PM Shinzo Abe lauded the "Indo-pacific" in the Indian Parliament, PM Modi enshrined it during the Shangri-La Dialogue. It is touted as a symbolic move by skeptics. But, why would India not welcome the symbolism that puts the vast region firmly attached to India-and forever? In 2016, the US also declared India as a "major defence" partners and signing off a Logistics Exchange Agreement that opens a greater India-US military operation and exercise in the Indo-Pacific region. "He (Modi) made a really good point there about the dangers of accepting loans that are too good to be true, and being forced into another agenda," James Mattis, US defence secretary told to the media person at Shangri-La Dialogue.
In 2017, the US National Security Strategy document sights the "emergence of India as a leading global power besides marking on the 'strategic' defence partner. The US is already India's number two defence partner. President Trump's rhetoric on India should not be cast in the shape of diminishing role but a hyperbole of collective barbs which he unleashed on his allies as well.
Despite being in the 'Asia Nexus', which is a step closer to assimilate India in the circle, India- US relations are treading on caution. However, it is a phase that definitely requires a stopgap moment for India in the light of US-Russia conflicts, which have escalated to a monstrous proportion.
The Countering America's Adversaries through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) law that sanctions countries dealing with Washington's adversaries has another dimension for India. Russia's advance system S-400 Triumf deal is stuck. The US wants India to re-look at all the major defence deals with Russia. But, it is also understood by many in the US that India's critical military platforms are still heavily dependent on Russia. Plus, India does not come under any framework of 'security guarantee' by the US as it is already in a deed with South Korea and Japan. This gives space for India to procure defence systems from Russia and others.
A temporary Disarray
Nikki Haley's constant reminder that the US has begun to look at India with possibilities immense that will unfold. Even though, it is unlikely that India will gain any significant waiver at this juncture - if any - it could get a waiver to the continuum of Chabahar Port, which holds much significance for India's strategic security plan.
Recent tariff trade wars are aimed at China than India.
With China, the total estimated tariff hikes if implemented, are in tune of $900 billion. With India, It will be a total of $250 million. Along, talks are continuing to resolve as US trade Representatives Mark Linscott was in Delhi and '2+2 Dialogue' is being rescheduled. Nikki Haley's visit does include India under the strategic goals and defence cooperation is certainly on the radar. The temporary disarray is not verbose if you look at India's self-conflicting foreign policy's paradigm in the decades gone by.
It has been the long practice of our euphemism of non-alignment of India's foreign policy and thwarted the US for long to recognize India- beyond the acceptance of "democratic principles". India's heavy tilt towards Russia did not work when China charged on India in 1962. Russia is now greatly in tango with China. It has supplied military helicopters to Pakistan; the Moscow-Islamabad security partnership has become a salient feature of South Asia's geopolitical environment. Russia is more than willing to sell Su-35 fighter jets and T-90 tanks to Pakistan. Doklam crisis burst open the alarm that China set in for India. Russia was muted on the issue. It was the fallacy of the staccato that we intended to embrace non- alignment that led India at the door of the US. It is in the context, India's interest lies in the broadening relationships that seek a little more time to clear the wind and nurture the next generation of partnerships.
Further, the US is not a party to China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). India shall look for the camaraderie, even that is in principle, but vital enough to create an alternative position?
"In a globalized world, there are many belts and many roads, and no one nation should put itself into a position of dictating 'one belt, one road," US defence secretary James Mattis told members of the Senate Armed Services Committee during a Congressional hearing.
A quadrilateral initiative -QUAD led by US, Australia, Japan and India do imagine an alternative position against BRI. Though, the modalities are still at the nascent stage and framework is still clumsy. For India, it is not an alternative, it is a reality. In the grandeur of Russian's alliances for the fight against the west, China occupies the first position as a trading and ideological partners while not denying the tradition of alignment with India.
Political observer seldom fails to understand the surge in the strength of partnerships between India and the US. For them, the hangover of the cold era still overwhelms them. Nikki Haley's visit speaks clear and loud that the US inches closer to India. "Both countries are aware of what is at stake. A resolution of trade issues are well within the reach," said Mukesh Aghi, president of the US -India Strategic Partnership Forum (USISPF) summing up the essence of greater India-US relations.
