Trump’s Re-Election: A Game Changer For Indian Industries From IT To Real Estate

The re-election of Donald Trump as US President is projected to have far-reaching impacts on Indian industries, from real estate to defence and technology. Trump's pro-business stance and America-first policies could bring a mix of challenges and opportunities for India across sectors.

Industry insiders share their views on how various Indian sectors might be affected with this big win.

Geopolitical Impact And Economic Stability
Mukesh Singh, Chairman, Indo-American Chamber of Commerce UP, views Trump’s win as a potential stabiliser for global trade dynamics. Singh notes, “It’s going to be good for India in geopolitics and stabilising global trade, right now it’s too volatile as far as trade is concerned. Trump’s win will bring global economic stability.” He foresees a realignment in global alliances, predicting an axis forming between China, Russia, and North Korea, while nations like the UK, France, Germany, and Israel could become primary players in global trade and political dynamics. This, according to Singh, might indirectly benefit India by opening doors for enhanced collaboration and positioning India as a supplier of talent and products.

IT & Pharmaceutical Sectors
Palka Arora Chopra, Director at Master Capital Services, suggests that Trump’s "America First" and tighter immigration policies could challenge Indian IT and pharmaceutical firms, given their reliance on U.S. markets. "If Trump further limits H-1B visas, Indian IT firms may potentially experience headwinds like increased costs and operational challenges, affecting their U.S. growth prospects,” says Chopra. Additionally, heightened scrutiny of Indian pharma companies could alter consumer preferences. However, she acknowledges a silver lining for Indian IT, as a stronger dollar might bolster revenue. “Overall, Trump’s policies may create headwinds for IT and Pharma in the near term but might also be beneficial in the longer term,” she concludes.

Manufacturing, Energy, and Defense
Swapnil Aggarwal, Director, VSRK Capital, believes Indian manufacturing, energy, and defence sectors stand to gain from a Trump-led administration. "High tariffs on Chinese products would boost Indian manufacturers in U.S. markets, helping export-oriented industries like auto parts, solar equipment, and chemicals," says Aggarwal. He also foresees growth for Indian defence companies, as the U.S. may lean on India as a strategic partner in Asia, particularly in the defence sector. Trump's pro-fossil fuel policies might benefit Indian oil and gas companies, offering potential growth for mutual funds that concentrate on these sectors.

Real Estate and Luxury Development
Abhishek Raj, Founder & CEO of Jenika Ventures, predicts a positive impact on the luxury and commercial real estate markets in India. "Trump’s pro-business policies and tax reforms could encourage more foreign direct investment into India’s high-end real estate market," Raj explains, highlighting potential growth in cities like Mumbai, Delhi, and Bengaluru. Trump's brand in luxury real estate could enhance interest among affluent buyers and investors, strengthening India’s luxury property market.

Vijay Kamboj, Founder of Bric-X Infra, echoes this sentiment, emphasising the influence of developments like Trump Tower in Gurgaon. He says, "Trump Tower 2 in Gurgaon, a collaboration with M3M Group, symbolises the demand for ultra-luxury residences in India." Kamboj adds that Trump’s brand recognition could stimulate further interest in high-end projects, particularly in major urban centres.

Defence, Energy, and Emerging Industries
Raj Patel, CMO of MintCFD, anticipates increased demand in India's defence sector due to Trump’s military-focused policies. "India could benefit from U.S. government spending on defence initiatives, which may open up growth opportunities for Indian companies in intelligence, cybersecurity, and homeland security," notes Patel. In the energy sector, Trump's deregulation could support fossil fuel production, indirectly benefiting Indian oil and gas companies reliant on affordable imports.

Financial and Cryptocurrency Markets
Patel further speculates that Trump’s business-friendly stance could drive growth in private sectors like finance and cryptocurrency. Trump’s deregulation could benefit major financial institutions, potentially leading to greater lending and profits. Additionally, his favourable view on cryptocurrencies might foster a regulatory environment that supports growth in digital assets, potentially benefiting Indian investors interested in crypto markets.

Luxury Real Estate and Brand Positioning
Raj and Kamboj agree that the brand value associated with Trump could attract high-net-worth investors into India’s real estate. Trump's pro-business policies might enhance the appeal of luxury properties, particularly in urban markets where demand for premium developments is high.

While Trump’s protectionist policies may introduce headwinds for sectors like IT and pharma, his pro-business stance could drive growth in manufacturing, real estate, and defence. These diverse impacts reflect the nuanced and multifaceted outcomes of a Trump re-election for India’s economy and international trade relations.