By all converging accounts, the last general elections had burnt close on Rs 80,000 crore, or $12 billion. (Over a five year period, with many state and city elections included, the figure goes up to 200,000 crore). According to the World Bank, this is well over the GDP of any of the bottom 30 countries in the world.
This is not hallucination, because we see many secondary indicators of where this money finally lands up. Stock markets typically pick up in election years (check the trends). Real estate will see very large movements. Media and advertising agency bosses are smiling from ear to ear.
Yes, we know that parties collect the moolah to shout about themselves. But the bigger question is who they direct this at. If you think the parties are directionless, unprofessional and extravagant, think again.
To get a sense of how sharply focused they are, sample this: when the government changed in Karnataka two years ago, the newly elected chief minister with his characteristic candour tells us on television: “Be realistic, we (the Congress) did not win this election, the BJP lost it.” The reality is that when the BJP strongman in Karnataka was expelled from the party, he started his own outfit called the Karnataka Janata Paksha. The entire Lingayat community from which he hails voted en masse for the fledgling unit, split the BJP vote, and handed over Karnataka to a gleeful Congress.
Is this exceptional? You and I know it isn’t. Identity or vote bank politics is as old as democracy itself. We would be kidding ourselves if we claimed that even evolved democracies are free of it. However, what really worries about Indian politics is that substantive issues will generally play second fiddle to this phenomenon.
Bihar and UP are classic examples of large states that have suffered decades of underperformance as vote bank democracies. And we would love to place this failing at the doorstep of the politician. This is way off the mark. You might blame these folk for many things, but poor strategy is not one of them. When Mayawati realised that the increasingly vocal numbers of non SCs and BCs could queer her pitch, she immediately spoke of the poor Brahmins in her state who cannot be neglected. With one stroke she appropriated every “non scheduled” economically deprived voter into her bank.
While politicians might be masters at exploiting this trait, it is us, the voter, who creates this opportunity. And if we are under the illusion that this is a rural, uneducated phenomenon, think again. Last week, I went across to my professionally qualified, world travelled neighbour to return a novel. She complained to me about her tenants “from another community” who were really difficult to deal with. We know this is not isolated.
The idea itself is simple and single minded in its genius. Mass insecurity is endemic. But it exists in large well defined community pockets. Identify it, magnify it and appropriate it. You have a substantial vote bank on your hands.
But where does this Rs 200,000 crore get spent. For the better part, to keep the vote bank together and in your favour. In advertising parlance, investing on your core customer. However, a small part is spent on voting day for sales promotions. This is to meet number targets.
Where does so much of money get raised in a country like this. Most of it is “promissory” notes. That is, essentially monetising the promises that politicians make against vote bank payoffs.
Claus Moser, celebrated British social scientist and bureaucrat captures it succinctly. “Education,” he quipped, “is very expensive. But then, so is ignorance.”
The author is president and CKO, EQUiTOR Value Advisory
(This story was published in BW | Businessworld Issue Dated 19-10-2015)
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The author is president and CKO, EQUiTOR Value Advisory
