The Chinese Covid Riddle – A Scam Or Poor Management?
“Normal led to this”. This is what Ed Young, a science journalist, wrote for the August issue of the Atlantic. Imagine that you are in the middle of the ocean, in a small boat, far away from the shore. It is a quiet, peaceful day and the ocean waves and the wind are your comrades, calm and pleasant. Then, within the blink of an eye, a massive storm capsizes your boat and soon after tosses you into the sea. You somehow try to remain calm and composed, amidst the pandemonium. You manage to find the boat’s life raft, which is still floating, which quite likely is your only way to survive. After stabilising a bit and catching your breath, you become cognizant of the fact that this raft is saving your life at that very moment and is the only reason you’re alive. However, you also realise that the raft is not a long-term solution and that you need to get back to land as soon as possible. In the real world, this ‘storm’ is the Covid-19 pandemic, the ‘life raft’ is a conflate of the preventive measures we have taken to reduce the spread of the virus, and the ‘land’ is the end of the pandemic.
To all those who thought that the pandemic is over, let me tell you, it’s really not. The pandemic is like one of your nosy neighbours, who keeps interfering with your life and day-to-day work. Articles related to the rise of Covid-19 cases in China started surfacing in the news in earlymid-December 2022. I recently saw an Instagram post which said that such happenings are a ‘scam’ and merely Chinese propaganda, because all of this was happening after the FIFA World Cup. No one said a thing when there were massive crowds in stadiums, theatres and restaurants, watching the match. Is this actually true? Well, not really. This can be ascertained by reviewing the statistics and timeline of events.
To stymie the initial spread of the virus, Xi Jinping’s Government implemented a draconian “zero-covid” policy in the nation, which included isolation of asymptomatic as well as symptomatic covid-positive patients and prevention of transmission by quarantines, mass testing and prolonged lockdowns. It was conspicuous through Chinese social media where people posted a plethora of stories- being informed on their phones that their green health code has become red or amber, restricting access to public spaces or even a mandatory stay at an official quarantine centre. This would happen even if they travelled through a district with a minute number of covid cases.
Although this policy may have initially been successful in containing the spread, the civilians now started getting frustrated. China was swept with anti-government protests, with some protests going as far as demanding the resignation of Xi Jinping. In October, there was an outbreak of Covid-19 in a factory run by Foxconn, an iPhone manufacturing company, in the economically burgeoning city of Zhangzhou, China. The plant went under lockdown with many fleeing away. This called for the recruitment of workers in the factory. The newly recruited workers were promised bonuses and better pay. However, these conditions were not met and the workers accused Foxconn of underpaying them and not isolating Covid-infected workers. This, in turn, triggered a chain of violent protests.
Next in line were the Guangzhou protests. In mid-November, particularly 15 November 2022, residents of Guangzhou, a city in southern China, tore down Covid barriers and unanimously protested against the strict lockdown implemented after the detection of an increase in Covid-19 cases in the city.
On November 24th, 2022, a detrimental fire set ablaze in an apartment in the city of Urumqi, taking the lives of 10 innocent civilians. Several locals have reported that data has been suppressed and that more people were killed. They also claimed that Covid restrictions on residents’ movements were another facet that worsened the death toll. This news, ironically, spread like wildfire and on November 25th, myriad people took to the streets, first in Urumqi and then even in cities like Beijing and Shanghai. Locals even said that the site of these protests was reminiscent of the 1989 Tiananmen Square Protests. This chain of protests eventually led to an ease on Covid-restrictions. The civilians got what they wanted. December 5th onwards life took a step closer towards ‘normal’ for them.
It is rather paradoxical that the very success of the Chinese zero-covid policy now is their weakness. The CCP has greatly promoted the mass vaccination program ever since late 2020. Due to such strict preventive policies and non-pharmaceutical measures, herd immunity is nearly unattainable due to abating immunity, antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) and ever-increased transmissibility of covid-variants. December 19th, 2022 marked the country’s first reported fatalities in 15 days, along with an intensified surge in the number of cases. This was slotted almost immediately after the partial upliftment of the “zero-covid” policy. Eric Feigl-Ding, an American scientist, tweeted that “hospitals completely overwhelmed in China ever since restrictions dropped”. He also added that more than 60 per cent of China and nearly 10 per cent of the world population will probably get infected over the next 90 days.
China is currently experiencing what India did in March-April 2021. Those are times we would never want to go back to. There is only one thing that spreads faster than a virus, and that is fear. This was quite evident. Hospitals were overwhelmed, short-staffed and inadequately equipped with necessary tools. People were scared, nervous, and uncertain of whether they would fall prey to the deathly wrath of this virus. The very same thing happened in Hong Kong and South Korea. They too implemented extremely stringent policies but the Omicron variant ended up infecting thousands and killing hundreds of people.
A salient question raised was regarding the efficacy of the Chinese vaccines in use- Sinovac and Sinopharm. Although China’s vaccination rate is quite high as per global standards, the production of underwhelming and categorically ‘less effective’ domestic vaccines, the low percentage of vaccinated citizens in the ’80 and above’ age category and a significant time gap since an average individual’s last dosage, Chinese herd immunity is almost non-existent. These facets have proven to be a rather major setback too. It is evident that the Chinese Government is now underplaying the fatality of this virus. Chinese scientists are experimentally working on several mRNA vaccines, and despite the approval of one in Indonesia in September, it will still take a minimum of 6 months to reach the Chinese markets. According to BMJ, mathematical models have predicted approximately 1.55 million deaths in a decimating wave triggered by the ease on Covid-restrictions in China. The demand for intensive medical care could eclipse supply by up to 15.6 times. Stockpiling of drugs and PPE (personal protective equipment) will be at an all-time high. According to an online retail giant JD.com, sales of face masks were 682 per cent higher in early December 2022 than in 2021. Furthermore, the sales of medicines and drugs for cough and cold and fever increased 18-fold. The search rate for Lianhua Qingwen pills, which are a traditional Chinese medicine that has reportedly helped treat Covid-19, is also extremely high.
Lastly, the transmission of the virus from China to India has already started happening. The BF7 strain of the Omicron variant has already been traced in India. The Indian Government has already started to implement preventive measures. States and Union Territories have been asked to send samples of Covid-19 positive cases to genome sequencing labs for the detection of new variants, if at all. On 23 December 2022, the Indian Aviation Ministry issued an order which instructed airport operators to test 2 per cent of those flying to India from abroad, at random. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has already started reviewing medical infrastructural standards and seems to be looking favourably upon ramping up testing. Indian hospitals, on the other hand, are also preparing for yet another possible outbreak. As reported by PTI, a mock drill will be conducted on 27 December in hospitals across the country. Availability of Coviddedicated facilities and departments, with emphasis on oxygen plants, ventilators, medical and surgical staff and logistics.
In conclusion, I would like to say that there undoubtedly was a resurgence of Covid-19 in China. However, the question that arises is- will the same happen in India? History is notorious for repeating itself. It is up to us to just not let that happen. We cannot have a repeat episode of what happened in March and April. We need to be more prepared, more cautious and more stringent. This is the right time for us to do so. If not now, then when? If not us, then who?
The author is a student of Cathedral and John Connon School, Mumbai
