Ram Mandir Factor: Satta Bazar Predicts 315 Seats To BJP In National Elections
Betting fever is catching up in India even though the national elections are three months away. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's return to power and a thumping victory to the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was long discounted. But bets are now being placed in the satta bazar or the illegal market for election bettings, on the number of seats that the BJP and its arch rival the Congress party are likely to win.
272 out of 543 seats are required for any party to form the government but the bookies believe BJP can win at least 315 seats on its own without the NDA (National Democratic Alliance) partners. The Congress, say bookies, will find it difficult to cross even the 60 seat mark. Bookies are giving 1:1 odds for the BJP winning 315 seats and the same for Congress winning 55 seats. The odds will change as the elections approach and depending on the announcements and steps that PM Modi keeps announcing for the next three months, bookies say.
"The Ram Mandir factor alone will add 25-30 additional seats in BJP's kitty this time compared to 2019. For nearly four decades, the temple was BJP's agenda in its election manifesto, which is being fulfilled this year. It is a matter of great pride for the country and a sole factor that will ensure BJP scoring a historic victory in the 2024 national elections. 300+ seats is a given but the bookies wanted to structure bets in such a manner that they do not lose too much money on it as the favourite wins. Hence, the ambitious target of 315-320 but even that is giving sleepless nights to most bookies," said a Satta Bazar operator based out of Dubai.
The inauguration of Ayodhya Ram Mandir is likely to coincide with a slew of announcements by PM Modi like a big cut in fuel prices and other such doles, the sources said. Then the promises in the budget and up to the last day when the polling starts will keep the mood of the nation buoyant towards the BJP, the satta bazar believes.
Bookies say, the Congress has no narrative to counter the Modi juggernaut but are banking on the sole factor of poliratision of the minority community and mainly sympathisers in South India. Over the past couple of years, Congress party's rants regarding corruption and linking PM Modi to billionaire Gautam Adani have not cut much ice with the voters. When the Congress spoke about high cooking fuel prices, the government cut the price of gas cylinders. From the issue of national security, GDP to housing schemes for India's villagers, the Modi government has won the game of narratives in the past five years.
The satta bazar has gone high tech with betting now done via mobile apps, operated from outside India, and money exchange through hawala or mule transfers. The betting turnover is expected to cross Rs50,000 crore in the next 3-4 months, bookies say.
Bookies are expecting the elections to be declared sometime near the end of February. Like the NDA alliance of which BJP is the leading party, the Congress is part of the I.N.D.I alliance that includes almost all the other regional parties of India. Effectively, it is one against all and that alone sets the narratives, bookies say.
BJP had received 37.36 percent of the vote in 2019 polls, the highest vote share by a political party since the 1989 general election, and it had won 303 seats. In 2019, the Congress had won just 52 seats, failing to get 10 percent of the seats needed to claim the post of Leader of the Opposition. Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Haryana, Chhattisgarh, Goa, Odisha, Assam, Himachal Pradesh and most states in the North East are likely to be the strongest states for the BJP while Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Telangana could be favourable for the Congress.
