Till recently, there seemed to be a virtual consensus across a broad spectrum of pundits, psephologists and political commentators that the Aam Aadmi Party is poised to win a famous victory in the Punjab assembly elections due in early 2017. This election is crucial for the barely hidden ambition of Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal to challenge Narendra Modi in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. If Punjab slips out of his grasp, his pretensions of being a pan Indian leader would appear even more pretentious. So when Navjot Singh Sidhu quit as a nominated Rajya Sabha MP and provided ample hunts of joining the AAP bandwagon, it looked as if AAP was all set to sweep Punjab.
Not anymore. By forming a new front called Awaaz-E-Punjab, Sidhu might possibly have decisively dented the prime ministerial ambitions of Kejriwal. Of course, AAP supporters will now parrot the same tune that supporters of the BJP-Akali Dal alliance have been spewing: that Sidhu is an inconsequential and overhyped creation of the media who will have no impact on poll outcomes. Many pundits too are arguing the same point. But anyone who understands the basics of Indian elections knows three things: first, that when there are more than two serious contenders in the fray, a vote share of 30% is enough to comfortably win elections. Second, when anti-incumbency votes are split, it is the incumbent that inevitably benefits despite a drop in popularity and vote shares. And third, small parties or formations can play spoiler in a spectacular fashion.
All three are going to happen now in Punjab. But some electoral facts first. In states where two parties or formations compete, a vote share of more than 40% is needed for victory and even a 1% lead in vote share makes all the difference. This is what happens in Chattisgarh. In two successive elections, BJP has won majorities, with a very small lead in vote share. In states with more than two contenders, a less than 30% vote share is enough to win elections. Uttar Pradesh is a classic example of this. In 2007, Mayawati and BSP won a majority with a less than 30% vote share; Akhikesh Yadav and SP repeated that in 2012. And all indications are that something similar will happen again. Take another example: Maharashtra assembly elections of 2014. There were four serious contenders (as the Congress-NCP and BJP-Shiv Sena alliances broke down). With just about 27% of votes! The BJP nearly made it to the majority mark. Bihar in 2014, and then in 2015 is another classic example. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, there were three serious contenders: a BJP led alliance, a Lalu Yadav led RJD and a Nitish Kumar led JD(U). The BJP alliance virtually swept the state. The exact opposite happened in the 2015 assembly elections when Nitish and Lalu joined hands and Bihar became a two way fight.
The new Sidhu formation in Punjab needs to be seen in that light. First, unlike all previous elections, Punjab was already a three corned fight between the Congress, the AAP and the ruling Akali-BJP alliance. Till this time, both the Congress and the BJP-Akali alliance have managed vote shares in the range of 40% to 45%. The entry of AAP would have anyway transformed this two way right into a three cornered one. In such a scenario, a 30% vote share could prove to be enough. In the 2012 assembly elections, the Akali-BJP alliance won close to 42% of the votes while the Congress managed just above 40%. For AAP to win in early 2017, vote shares of both the traditional foes will need to crash below 30%. In all the assembly elections since "normalcy" returned to Punjab in the mid-1990s, the worst performance of the Akali-BJP alliance has been a 36% vote share and that of the Congress has been a 35% vote share. For AAP to win, Punjab voters have to emulate Delhi voters of 2013 and 2015 to deliver what AAP needs.
But this is where the Sidhu led front can play the decisive role of a spoiler. In 2012, the ruling Akali-BJP alliance was perceived to be very unpopular and suffering from anti-incumbency. Virtually every opinion poll and even exit poll had pointed towards a majority for the Congress. The Akali-BJP vote share did drop by more than 4%. And yet, they won 68 out of the 117 assembly seats. How? Manpreet Badal, a cousin of Punjab deputy chief minister Sukhbir Badal had revolted against the Badal family and the Akali Dal. He formed a political party and contested elections. He didn't make any electoral waves, but weaned away more than 5% of the "anti-incumbency" vote. What if the Sidhu led front weans away more than 5% of voters are who sick of the "system" and want to change it?
All bets are then off. Pundits could do well to do some hard work mining electoral data than making pronouncements that will appear silly and stupid in 2017!
