On November 8, 2015, within a short time of the Bihar assembly election results being announced, this author had written that Nitish Kumar would definitely nurse prime ministerial ambitions. Barring an official announcement, that intent has been made clear with the Bihar chief minister being anointed as the "national" president of the JD(U). Nitish Kumar seems to be going about it systematically. First, he loses no opportunity to support those who publicly criticize or abuse Narendra Modi (Kanhaiya Kumar is the latest member of this club). Second, he has laid the platform for appealing to women voters by declaring total prohibition in Bihar. Third, by repeatedly demanding reservations in private sector jobs, Kumar is seeking to expand his national footprint. And fourth, by seeking to forge alliances with other regional parties, he is building a seemingly viable coalition. How far can be go to become a genuine Modi rival in 2019?
Before he takes on Modi, Nitish will probably have to contend with two other politicians: Arvind Kejriwal and Rahul Gandhi. As of today, despite his outlandish and often intemperate behavior, Kejriwal appears more formidable. People who have access to his core team say he is going to adopt the following strategy. Give it all for the Punjab assembly elections. Both early opinion polls and ground reports from the state suggest that there is a distinct possibility of an AAP wave during the early 2017 assembly elections. If AAP wins, Manish Sisodia becomes Delhi CM and Arvind Kejriwal heads to Chandigarh to become Punjab CM. his strategy then could be to provoke the central government to constant cat fights over every possible issue: just as he has been doing in Delhi. People suggest that he might go so far as to try and provoke a dismissal of his government by 2018. Kejriwal will then head towards the 2019 elections as the "martyr" who makes Modi shiver with fear. This appears stupid in paper now; but stranger things have happened in Indian politics.
What about the eternal heir apparent Rahul Gandhi? For him to have any credibility as a serious rival to Modi, the Congress has to do four things. First, somehow beat back the AAP challenge and win Punjab in early 2017. Also perform decently in simultaneous elections in Uttar Pradesh. Then run BJP ragged in the late 2017 assembly elections in Gujarat. Third, retain Karnataka in the early 2018 assembly elections. And fourth, defeat the BJP in at least one state out of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh in late 2018. As of today, this looks like an insurmountable challenge for Rahul despite the induction of the "poll wizard" Prashant Kishor. But as we often see, stranger things have happened in Indian politics.
What is the most likely outcome of the race between the three "candidates"? Let's assume that Indian voters do not give another mandate to Modi. The most realistic scenario would be a repeat of the 1996 Lok Sabha elections where the BJP would not be able to form a government despite being the largest party. Like in 1996, Modi rivals could surprise Indians. Rahul might decide that Congress gives "outside" support to an anti-Modi front. And other regional straps decide that Nitish and Kejriwal are too ambitious. Who knows? India might just get a person like H.D. Deve Gowda as Prime Minister!
