Globalisation Is Going To Die: Richard A. D’Aveni
Richard A. D’Aveni, a renowned professor of Strategy at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth College, does some crystal gazing in a conversation with Avishek Banerjee and says corporations would now have more power, even if there is a spurt in protectionism. He also says that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is one of the best to have held office in India in years.
Edited excerpts:
Have we exited the age of hyper-competition?
We are about to. The idea of constant, disruptive activities is going to disappear because of the migration of competitive advantage to something much more sustainable such as industrial platforms, artificial intelligence (AI) and 3D printing. These will be technologies that you can continue to add to without destroying your core competence.
Where do you see India in 10 years? What will the Indian model be like? Does it provide the key to the future?
India has been a place of tremendous opportunities and potential. But it has been that way for a long time. So the question is, will it change enough in order to achieve its potential. Some of these involve controlling the ease of doing business in the country. It is very difficult, especially for the US, to do business in India.
Whether it (the Indian model) provides the key to the future, I would have said ‘yes’ a few years back. The hi-tech future, engineering for manufacturing, and software design in Bangalore were things that were key (to the future) and (offered) advantages for the country. But now, IT is moving to a new level of AI, industrial platforms, robotics and cloud computing. The US companies have, kind of, outfoxed the world when the rest of the world thought we were dead. It makes the American model of economics more successful.
Between the Chinese and the US models of capitalism, where do you see the Indian model?
I am not sure if India has a model because of it being so diverse! You have socialists / communists controlling some states and they outperform capitalists in other states. So I think the unification of India is still in progress and that needs to be pursued.
What are your views on our Prime Minister Modi?
PM Modi seems to be the best PM I have seen in years. He reminds me of Rudy Giulani, the former mayor of New York.
How do you see the spurts in protectionism led by US President Donald Trump? How does it affect globalisation?
I think globalisation is going to die. There is a big anti-globalisation move around the world. It is dying because of the abuse by China and a small number of other countries. It’s the Far Eastern countries that have essentially created trade imbalances through all kinds and means. The US is going to close that down. There are a lot of people who like it. It all depends on Trump’s survival as the US President. If he loses and it goes back to the normal Washington consensus, then we will go to free trade and our country will continue to slip down.
How do you see corporate leaders shaping up politics and geopolitics worldwide 10 years from now?
Historically, corporates have affected geopolitical events. There are two rising tensions that may change that or make it even stronger. On one hand, there is rising nationalism and intolerance for multinationals. It is only a matter of time when people say “we don’t have jobs here and you are shipping our jobs overseas”. We’ll have pay for the goods and have jobs rather than pay less for the goods and not be able to buy any because we don’t have jobs. On the other hand, there is a major change in technologies — a subject of my next book Pan Industrial Revolution. What I argue in the book is 3D printing combined with industrial platform is going to allow companies to be much bigger and diverse than in the past. And it will become pan-industrial because products are not going to fit into any industrial category anymore. Companies are going to get more influential over politics and geopolitics.
