Of course, it is possible that all this might be speculative nonsense if actual elections results differ from what the exit polls are showing. After all, polls have been going horribly wrong in recent times: 2014 Lok Sabha elections, 2015 Bihar assembly elections, Brexit and the US presidential elections. But even if they go wrong, there are three clear trends emerging that will dominate Indian politics for a while.
The first is that Narendra Modi is clearly a political reincarnation of Indira Gandhi. It is not just about being strong willed and authoritarian. It is not just about reducing all other leaders to a metaphorical stature of pygmies. It is also not just about successfully hijacking the "pro-poor" plank through smart rhetoric and communications backed by "bold" moves. Gandhi used nationalization and Modi has used demonetization. Most important and relevant is the emergence of Modi as a leader who evokes fear and awe among opponents. Signs were clear when Uttar Pradesh chief minister reluctantly told BBC even as the exit polls were unfolding that he may be open to the idea of a "tie up" with Mayawati to ensure that the BJP is kept out of power. This was reflected during the campaign when Modi sort of parroted Gandhi by claiming to thunderous applause that while he wants to remove corruption, all others want to remove Modi. There is no doubt now that even allies fear BJP and Modi. Look at Shiv Sena which has woken up to the fact that the BJP has gone from being a very junior partner in Maharashtra to the dominant force in the state. Like Indira, Modi too will stumble and fall when the opposition unity is very strong. In many states during the late 1960s to early 1980s, Gandhi was defeated by a united opposition. Similarly, a united Mahagathbandhan in Bihar trounced Modi in 2015. But make no mistake. He will go into 2019 as the man to beat.
The second clear message or lesson is that pollsters and psephologists are now as argumentative as economists and lawyers. The difference in forecasts is so staggering that it beggars belief. The number of seats given to the BJP in Uttar Pradesh range from 160 to 280. Sure, virtually all polls show BJP as the largest party. But number of seats ranging from 160 to 280? Clearly, pollsters need to recover their so called science from mumbo jumbo. In Punjab too, some polls give a majority to AAP while others indicate a return of the Congress. This does affect the credibility of opinion and exit polls.
The third big lesson or message relates to good governance. If voters form a perception that you have delivered good governance and if it is backed up by hard socio economic data, you tend to get reflected; no matter what opponents or even mainstream media says or thinks. It happened with Mamata Bannerjee in 2016, it has happened thrice with BJP in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, thrice with Nitish Kumar in Bihar and four times in Odisha with Naveen Patnaik. Despite the expressways and a high voltage ad campaign, socio economic data suggests that good governance was missing from Uttar Pradesh.
