China's Population Declines First Time Since 1960s

In a surprising development, China's population witnessed a decrease for the first time since the 1960s. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, President Xi Jinping-led country had 1.412 billion people at the end of last year, 850,000 fewer than at the start.

Not since 1962, when millions died in a man-made famine caused by Mao Zedong's "Great Leap Forward," had the country's population shrunk. The primary cause does not appear to be an unusually high number of deaths this time. 

China ended its nearly three-year-long "zero-covid" policy on 07 December, resulting in a surge of infections and several fatalities. Officials reported almost 60,000 covid-related deaths since then on January 14th. The true figure is most likely far higher (the number includes only deaths in hospitals). 

However, demographers have predicted that 2022 will be the start of China's population drop for at least a year. The explanation is a declining urge to reproduce. There will be no following generation for many Chinese, including those who are married.

Concerned about the country's rapidly ageing population and declining labour force (which began to decline in 2012), China stopped requiring citizens to have no more than one child in 2016. It converted to a three-child-per-couple policy in 2021, which is more of an aim than a constraint. Having more is not a crime.

This relaxation, however, has had little impact, despite a bevy of incentives to have children, ranging from financial handouts to tax rebates and extended maternity leave. 

In 2017, 9.56 million babies were born, about 10 per cent less than in 2021. A decade ago, the total fertility rate (the average number of children a woman is predicted to have in her lifetime based on current birth rates) was 1.7. According to UN figures, it will fall below 1.2 by 2021. For a population to remain stable, the rate should be about 2.1, assuming no net migration and unchanged mortality rates.

Government assistance has done little to alleviate the burden on parents. The southern city of Shenzhen recommended on January 10th that couples having a third (or additional) child get incentives of 19,000 yuan (USD 2,800) throughout the first three years of the kid's life. 

However, according to an official estimate issued by state media, this would amount to only approximately 8 per cent of the entire cost. Despite a recent fall in China's real estate industry, prices remain high. Couples frequently postpone marriage until they have purchased a home. Since 2014, the number of marriages has been declining.

Around 35 million Chinese people are over the age of 80. The figure is predicted to more than treble by 2050. China's welfare system is primitive, so unless the government significantly increases its spending on care, families will bear the brunt of the burden. 

The unwillingness of some young Chinese to marry and have children is also an indication of how traditional values are shifting. Women are rebelling against the gender imbalance in marriage. The internet is rife with indignation about the government's initiatives to encourage larger families, which imply that they will become baby-making robots. 

There will almost certainly be another explosion of interest in the topic among Chinese netizens soon. According to the UN, India's population will surpass China's in April. Some feel it has already occurred. The loss of China's rule as the world's most populated country, which it has held for hundreds of years, will not go down well with Chinese nationalists.