Almost 40 years ago in 1977, voters - particularly in east and north India - delivered a resounding slap to the Congress because of the Emergency. Then, as now, there was much talk and debate whether the Congress would survive as a potent political force.
Incidentally, that was year when the new super star of Indian elections, Prashant Kishore was born. In 2017, when he turns 40 and Rahul Gandhi turns 47, Indians will get an idea of how sustainable the hype around Prashant Kishore is. By then, Uttar Pradesh and Punjab would gone through assembly elections. Congress insiders seem convinced that the Kishore magic will ensure a victory in Punjab and a quantum jump in the number of seats in UP. And then there is 2019 when Indians will deliver a verdict on five years of Modi. Can Kishore succeed in doing what seems impossible at the moment?
This author thinks that the Kishore magic will inevitably be trumped by reality. The Congress was already in a position to win Punjab in 2017 with or without Kishore because of the massive anger against the ruling Akali Dal-BJP alliance. The only question was if could stop the seemingly relentless rise of the Aam Aadmi Party in the state. Uttar Pradesh is a different ball game. In 2012, led personally by Rahul Gandhi, the Congress hoped to win about 100 seats and play king maker. It managed a tally of 28 seats. Since then, nothing on the ground suggests that there is any sign of grassroots support for the Congress. If the 2017 UP challenge is formidable, the 2019 Lok Sabha challenge is Herculean. The fact is: data clearly point to a terminal decline in the fortunes of Congress.
The last time the Congress won elections in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal was in the 1960s. The pathetic condition of the party is shown in the manner in which it has allied with the Left Front in West Bengal as a junior player. It has been a junior, minor league player in Tamil Nadu for ages. The last time the Congress actually won elections in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Gujarat was in the 1980s. In UP and Bihar, it has become a player of no consequence. It is still a formidable force in Gujarat; but has failed for almost three decades to narrow the 8% gap in vote share compared to the BJP. The last time the Congress won in Madhya Pradesh and Odisha was in the 1990s. In Madhya Pradesh, the party faces the Gujarat humiliation: an inability to narrow the vote share gap with the BJP even though it is a formidable force. In Odisha, it is rapidly becoming the third player after the BJD and the BJP. It has never won Chattisgarh since the state was formed even though it has always been a strong contender. In Jharkahnd, it is becoming a junior league player.
Taken together, all these states send about 300 members to the Lok Sabha out of a total tally of 543. The best that any kind of Kishore Magic can do for the Congress in 2019 from all these states is about 50 seats. In 2004 and 2009, the Congress counted on Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra as strongholds. It is now one of the four parties in Maharashtra with a massive erosion in grassroots support and it has been wiped out of Andhra. It might win some seats from the new state of Telengana in 2019. Karnataka and Assam are two remaining big states where the Congress continues to be a dominant force.
But the stark question is: how on earth can Prashant Kishore help Rahul Gandhi win anywhere close to 150 seats in the 2019 elections. Anything is possible in politics, of course. Specially if you believe in oracles and miracles!
