<div>Conventional wisdom says that a higher voter turnout favours the principal opposition party, in a bipolar contest. The BJP should then be enthused by the turnout of around 58 per cent voters in the fourth phase of state assembly election in Bihar.</div><div> </div><div>Historically, however, a low turnout of voters has helped the BJP in Bihar. So it remains to be seen which way the votes swing in the state, in the face of a high voter turnout.</div><div> </div><div>BJP leaders, however, claim that ground reports suggest a decisive edge for the saffron-led alliance in the state, which has been further given a boost in the fourth phase.</div><div> </div><div>The fourth phase of voting was held in many BJP strongholds with NDA nominees seeking a re-election in 34 out of the 55 seats that went to polls.</div><div> </div><div>Overall, the BJP assessment is quite contrary to the media projections in the Delhi media, which gave a thumbs-up to the Lalu Prasad-Nitish Kumar grand alliance in the first two phases of the state assembly polls. The BJP, as against media reports, feels that it had a slender edge over the grand alliance in the first two phases, and the fourth edge has been solid for the party.</div><div> </div><div>The BJP-led alliance, however, is not expected to do well in the fifth phase as voting will be held for 57 seats mostly in Lalu-Nitish strongholds of Seemanchal and around.</div><div> </div><div>Even if the BJP’s internal assessment of the party faring well in Bihar comes true, the aftermath of the elections – selection of its CM candidate is not going to be easy at all. Unlike the grand alliance, the BJP-led alliance has not declared its CM candidate, and the entire spotlight has been on PM Modi. The party has, however, made it clear, that only someone from OBCs or MBCs will be the CM. The names doing the rounds include, apart from the tallest BJP leader in the state, Sushil Kumar Modi, that of Prem Kumar and Rajendra Singh (an RSS favourite).</div><div> </div><div>The aftereffects of the Bihar elections will be most visible in Delhi, specially during the upcoming Parliament winter session. Should the BJP-led NDA win Bihar, the Modi government can hope for a smooth conduct of the session, with crucial economic legislations like the GST and real estate bill lined up.</div><div> </div><div>However, if the grand alliance, that includes the Congress, manages to pip the NDA, the Congress will get a new lease of life at the Centre, and will continue with its confrontationist agenda – much visible during the monsoon session. In the event of the BJP losing Bihar, other opposition parties will make common cause with the Congress, speaking in one voice on derailing the reforms legislation agenda. NDA managers don’t rule out a washout, like the monsoon session, if they lose Bihar.</div><div> </div><div>That the Congress has lost none of its belligerence was evident when it boycotted PM Modi’s banquet in honour of the visiting African dignitaries, during the India-Africa Forum Summit.</div><div> </div><div>BJP’s worst fear, thus, is – lose Bihar, and lose another Parliament session!</div><div> </div><div>BJP’s internal assessment, however, gives it a reason to stay optimistic.</div>
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