Afghanistan/Taliban: An Outsider’s View
Every Nation and every commentator in the World, small and big, has taken a swipe at the American Nation and the Biden administration for pulling out of Afghanistan. The critics have accused the administration of conducting a rushed, poorly planned, and chaotic withdrawal. An important reason touted has been the would be plight of the Afghans after the withdrawal. I am neither a political commentator nor a foreign affairs expert. This is an outsider’s view on the eve of the pull out of the last US soldier from the Afghan soil.
Geopolitical reasons drive international relations in the world. Is there one country in the world today, where its foreign policy is not influenced by either political factors or its economic geography? Is it not a constant endeavour to control the geographical entities that have an international and global dimension? If it is political hegemony sometimes, it is a need to flex the military might at other times.
Like people, there are strong and weak nations. Economy and ideology are the only differentiators almost all times. If a list of world nations is made based on their GDP performance, would it not be a fair indicator of their military might as well?
Osama Bin Laden rose to fame, guiding his operations from Afghanistan when the United Nations Security Council applied sanctions on al-Qaeda and Taliban in 1999. 2001 saw three audacious terror attacks by al-Qaeda on the World Trade Center in New York and the Pentagon in Washington, DC. A fourth plane crashed in a field in Shanksville, Pennsylvania. Close to three thousand people died in the attacks. It is interesting to note that none of the 19 hijackers were Afghans though. The then President George Bush correctly vowed to “win the war against terrorism” and resolved to use force against those responsible for attacking the United States on 9/11. His intelligence agencies zeroed in on al-Qaeda and Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan for the dastardly act.
A month later, the U.S. military, with British support, began a bombing campaign against Taliban forces. Over the next week, Taliban strongholds crumbled under coalition of forces and Northern Alliance offensives. Soon the UN decided to send peace keeping forces. In the melee that followed, Osama escaped to Pakistan. Following the Bonn agreement, Hamid Karjai was chosen the interim administrative head supported by the international peace keeping force to protect Kabul. The Taliban collapsed with their leaders hiding in the mountains. Militancy mounted in the rest of Afghanistan.
This was probably the first signal for the US to retreat. That they did not and forayed into Iraq must be seen as a design that extended beyond Afghanistan.
Further, the U.S. military in 2002, created mechanisms for reconstruction and provide humanitarian aid through UN and NGOs in a bid to expand the authority of the Kabul government. The ethnic Pashtuns and the US military should have seen the larger context of the Taliban strength and their tenacity to fight against all odds. That they did not, meant poor ground intelligence.
Can an outside force, however mighty, and however well trained, really enforce peace almost 12000 kms away when highly motivated locals who understand the terrain well are willing to die? Even if it can, for how long? This should have crossed the American mind several times over. The then Secretary of the US defence, in May 2003 announced the culmination of the major war in Iraq though it kept smouldering for many more years.
This was the second signal for US to have retreated to the barracks. That they did not and went into reconstructing Afghanistan came at a huge cost in both men and material. There were eight thousand U.S. soldiers stationed in Afghanistan at the time. A new constitution came into being and Karjai was elected President through democratic elections held after almost 30 years, amidst unprecedented terror and killings.
This was the third instance the American forces should have retreated for no one could have provided security cover either to the President or the people for ever. That they did not may have had something to do with the wounded American pride, of not being able to eliminate their bete noire, Osama who had once again surfaced in 2004, posing fresh challenges. July 2006 saw multiple attacks and killings of the forces. The governance collapsed
With NATO’s member countries losing faith, the going was to get even tougher. The cat and mouse game continued into 2008 with both losing men and face. Come 2009, and the baton transferred to Barack Obama and the relay race continued with the forces swelling to 37 thousand. A process of training Afghan army to fight the Taliban too started. That this force later turned against their masters is a tragedy. The increasing influence of the role of Pakistan was either missed deliberately or the intelligence failed. The forces now swelled to almost 70,000
Someone should have perceived that the forces were finding it increasingly difficult to keep peace amongst the warring groups and that the supposed re-construction and humanitarian values was only a façade. Instead of exiting, The Americans presided over another Karjai election. A 2010 declaration of the NATO members agreed on a phased withdrawal of forces that had now risen to 100,000 beginning 2014.
Osama, responsible for the 9/11 attacks in New York and Washington, was killed by U.S. forces in Pakistan in May 2011. Did they not see the Pakistan hand? Did they ever rethink their intelligence or amend policies? Nothing appears was done.
This should have been the fourth instance when the Americans should have retreated. That they did not, showed that they either could not or would not. Come 2013 and the backchannel peace talks failed. Islamic State militants too joined to make the war messier.
That President Obama eventually announced a timetable before leaving the Whitehouse, for withdrawing most U.S. forces from Afghanistan by the end of 2016 was probably a dawning that this was a never-ending war. The baton passed on to Donald Trump. He however, announced adding several thousand more troops.
What a royal mess this is. Not just Taliban. Now fight the ISIS as well. Add to it a vicious Pakistan lurking behind the shadows. 2018 saw the Taliban carry out a series of bold terror attacks in Kabul that killed hundreds, amid an upsurge in violence. However, attempts to foster peace continued.
Finally in February 2020, a deal was signed between US and the Taliban where troops would be scaled down in return for good behaviour. In November 2020 the US made announcement days before the baton passed to Joe Biden, that the troops would be scaled down to 2500 by January 2021.
Now if President Biden pledges full withdrawal by September 11, 2021 and also follows upon that, what was his fault? Did someone expect that the Americans would remain for ever in Afghanistan keeping peace? Are the Americans arbiters and guarantors of peace for everyone in the world? Every goal in the 20-year war sometimes overt, sometimes covert remained uncertain. Terrorist safe havens in Pakistan continue to flourish undermining every U.S. effort. Two decades of war’s tolls include 2500 U.S. troops 1200 NATO troops, 3500 contractors, 66000 Afghan Military Police, 50000 Afghan civilians, almost 100 Journalists and 2 trillion Dollars. So, who won? And who lost?
Critics say, the military equipment should have been taken back before the withdrawal. Simple logistics would suggest that this was almost impossible. Either you shift your personnel or your equipment. That Joe Biden chose his people shows a great maturity on his part. Wars must never be fought. If they are, then collateral damages must be accepted. The people of Afghanistan must learn to make peace with their rulers. The Taliban must see reason. Other neighbouring nations must learn not to fish in troubled waters. Democracy cannot be thrust upon. It has to evolve. Biden must be respected for his wisdom even if it came at the fifth opportunity. It neither casts America as non-trustworthy to its allies nor has it suddenly become weak kneed.
