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Amid Commodity Crisis, LPG Emerges As Accidental Bright Spot

Liquefied Petroleum Gas, long a niche product used by the poor to cook and the rich to barbecue, has become a rare bright spot amid a broad commodities rout, riding on the wave of strong economic growth in India and parts of Southeast Asia.LPG is best known to consumers as propane or butane used in heating appliances and vehicles. But it is also used in the petrochemicals industry and the electricity sector, acting as a replacement for diesel in generators and power stations.While tumbling prices for oil, gas, coal and industrial metals have seen energy companies and miners slash capital expenditure, investment is flowing into the LPG sector to feed burgeoning demand from the world's poorer nations.The biggest growth market is India, with its 1.3 billion people and 8 per cent economic growth expected this year, where millions of households are switching from kerosene or wood burners to LPG."LPG is convenient because it is smoke-free and saves time," said Sunita Nagar, a 45-year-old housewife in the village of Dujana on the outskirts of Delhi, who got her first LPG in July.Tejveer Singh Nagar, 36, who has a physical disability, has also recently received his first LPG for cooking."I'm unmarried. Since I've got LPG I boil milk, and cook myself," he said. "Earlier, I was dependent on my sister-in-law to cook and give me milk."Indian government data shows that the share of households which have access to LPG has risen from around 50 per cent in 2010 to 70 per cent this year."There is a clear decision to increase LPG penetration as this is a cleaner fuel," said Indrajit Bose, executive director at Indian Oil Corp."It cuts pollution and also replaces use of wood as well as animal dung used for cooking in rural India. In the last 5-6 years, the government has been consistently reducing the allocation of subsidized kerosene... Delhi is today kerosene-free."Shale RevolutionEnergy consultancy IHS expects global LPG demand to rise from around 275 million tonnes this year to some 310 million tonnes by 2019, with the biggest growth seen in Asia. That compares with under 250 million tonnes in 2010.The World Bank says LPG helps reduce poverty, giving millions of households access to cooking heat and electricity for the first time."Reduction of extreme poverty is impossible without addressing energy scarcity," said Anita Marangoly George, senior director of Sustainable Development at the World Bank. "We see LPG as crucial in fighting energy poverty."LPG burns cleaner than wood or kerosene, and although both LPG and kerosene are highly flammable, large conversion programmes such as undertaken in Indonesia show a fall in household accidents following a switch to LPG.Just as important as the demand growth has been a change in LPG supply.Previously mostly produced in the Middle East, its rise over the last few years has come as a side-effect of the U.S. shale oil and gas exploration boom, of which LPG is a by-product.With LPG production from shale soaring since 2006, the United States has this year become the world's biggest exporter.Its soaring production has also made LPG much cheaper, a key ingredient for its success in developing countries, with U.S. propane prices down 70 percent since 2014.Subsidised GrowthThe International Energy Agency (IEA) said this week that investment in the overall oil sector would drop by at least 20 percent this year versus 2014, the biggest fall on record.While many oil majors like Exxon Mobil or Royal Dutch Shell also trade LPG, it makes up only a small share of their business and they often sell it on to specialized firms who are now taking advantage of cheap LPG to create new markets in developing countries."The sea-change of US LPG exports has been fantastic for us," said Theodore Young, chief financial officer of New York-based Dorian LPG, one of the world's biggest shippers of the fuel, which has ordered 19 new vessels to meet demand."It's been massive growth of perhaps 4 million tonnes not a decade ago to some 20 million tonnes this year."LPG is also seeing industrial-scale growth. Malaysia is developing the huge Refinery and Petrochemical Integrated Development (RAPID) project in Johor, close to Singapore's oil hub.RAPID will have the capacity to store more than 2 million cubic metres of crude oil, refined products, petrochemicals and LPG and plans to start operations in 2019.One problem the LPG industry could face is a scale-back in subsidies it heavily relies on in many countries."A lot of demand for LPG is subsidized," said Walter Hart, Global Lead of Natural Gas Liquids at IHS. "Eventually, the subsidies will be pulled back, and that would result in a lot of subsidized demand growth reduction, for instance in India."(Reuters)

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India's Import Of Iran Oil Grows 17 Per Cent In September

India imported 17.3 percent more crude oil from Iran last month than it did in August as its top refiner made its first buy from Tehran for a new plant, according to ship tracking data and a report compiled by Thomson Reuters Oil Research and Forecasts. Indian Oil Corp, India's biggest refiner, accounted for most of September's rise from the previous month, taking a very large crude carrier carrying two million barrels of oil for its recently commissioned 300,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) Paradip refinery on the nation's east coast, the data showed. IOC's first purchase of Iranian crude in four months helped lift imports of the oil to 233,200 bpd in September compared with 198,800 bpd in August, the tanker arrival data showed. The September intake was down 3.4 percent from a year ago. IOC is not a regular buyer of the crude as its term contract with the Islamic republic averages only about 25,000 bpd. Still, the world's fourth-biggest oil consumer and Iran's top client after China, bought 19.3 percent less oil in January-September at about 216,200 bpd, the data showed. India's imports from Iran in the first nine months of the year were dragged down by deep cuts in shipments by New Delhi in the first quarter of 2015, under pressure from the United States to keep its imports within the limits of sanctions targetting Tehran's disputed nuclear programme. In the first half of India's fiscal year, running over the six months April-September, its oil imports from Iran jumped 16.7 percent as refiners stepped up purchases following the July deal that may mean the removal of sanctions sometime next year. Three Indian refiners, Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd, Essar Oil and IOC together imported 260,600 bpd in the first six months of this fiscal year compared with 223,400 bpd a year ago, the data showed. India's imports of Iranian crude in September were largely as expected based on revised tanker loading schedules for the month that excluded shipments of condensate, according to a source with knowledge of Iran's shipping plans. Iran's overall crude oil sales look to be headed towards a seven-month low in October, down 14 percent from September, according to preliminary tanker loading data. (Reuters)

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Domestic Gas Prices Reduced, But A Weak Rupee May Be A Dampener

India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) expects the benefit from reduced gas price to be partly offset by the near 6 per cent rupee depreciation over April-September 2015. The government has reduced the domestic gas prices by 18 per cent to $3.82/mmbtu applicable for 1 October 2015 to 31 March 2016. Thus, the net impact of the reduced domestic gas prices in rupee terms would be nearly 11 per cent-16 per cent.  Ind-Ra expects the compressed natural gas (CNG) and piped natural gas (PNG domestic) end-consumers of city gas distribution entities to benefit from the downward price revision. Over April-September 2015, the price of alternate fuel - diesel - declined by 8 per cent while that of CNG remained unchanged, thus lowering the fuel competitiveness of CNG. Ind-Ra expects the benefits of lower gas prices to continue to be passed on to the consumers. It further expects an Rs2.1/scm-Rs2.3/scm cut in PNG prices and an Rs 2.8/kg-Rs3.0/kg cut in CNG prices. This would make CNG 44 per cent-45 per cent more competitive than diesel, compared with 39 per cent currently. Similarly, PNG would be 1 per cent-2 per cent more competitive than subsidised LPG, compared with negative 8 per cent currently. This is the second domestic gas price reduction and is driven by the decline in average gas prices prevalent at the reference hubs over the period July 2014-June 2015. The first downward price revision was to $4.66/mmbtu (million British thermal unit) from $5.05/mmbtu on 1 April 2015. The average Henry Hub gas prices declined to $3.33/mmbtu from $4.35/mmbtu over January-December 2014.  Ind-Ra expects the two major domestic gas producers – Oil India Limited and Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited - to face a revenue decline of  Rs120 crore-Rs 130 crore and Rs 1080 crore-Rs 1150 crore, respectively, on gas sales during 2HFY16 as the prices have been reduced by 18 per cent. In the mid-stream segment, Gail (India) Limited (‘IND AAA’/Stable) would see Rs 1790 crore-Rs 1900 crore lower trading revenue from the sale of domestic gases during 2HFY16. 

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HPCL: In Expansion Mode

HPCL plans to spend Rs 2,000 crore overseas through Prize Petroleum CompanyWith a strong balance sheet and substantially reduced debt, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) — the country’s third-largest oil marketer — is scouting for acquisition opportunities overseas to expand its production base. The company struck such a deal in Australia last year.HPCL, according to sources familiar with the development, plans to spend at least $300 million (about Rs 2,000 crore) for a stake in an active oil and gas field through its exploration and development unit, Prize Petroleum Company. The decision is well timed: the recent slump in crude prices has eroded the value of production assets, making them attractive acquisition targets abroad.“We have recently acquired a production field in Australia, and are looking for some more opportunities for similar acquisitions in future,” executive director for corporate finance J. Ramaswamy said recently.HPCL’s balance sheet is strengthened as debt is down 47 per cent, from Rs 32,400 crore in 2012-13 to Rs 17,000 crore in 2014-15. The company has replaced high-cost debt with low-cost foreign currency debt. Recent fuel reforms have helped reduce working capital loans. Industry analysts say all this adds up to a safer financial position, enabling HPCL to consider acquisitions and heavy capital expenditure.While the stock has done well over the past few quarters, its earning per share ratio has been less than impressive, due to challenging market conditions. However, sector analyst Deepak Shenoy of Capitalmind says HPCL is still a good stock. “As we go forward, the lower crude price and the fact that the oil companies such as HPCL and BPCL haven’t passed all of it on to us, or even despite the excise duty changes that will show up in their results, over time they will get re-rated. But in the short-term, they may just be in for a correction, largely because of the larger market, which will see a lot of volatility. In the longer term they would still be on the buy radar,” he noted in a recent report.A report from brokerage Emkay Global notes that with its current debt/equity ratio, HPCL could easily fund its future capex, partly through internal accruals and partly by raising long-term foreign currency loans at competitive rates.HPCL got a long-term foreign-currency Issuer Default Rating of ‘BBB-’ with a stable outlook from Fitch Ratings during the first quarter of the current financial year. This is investment grade, which is on par with India’s sovereign rating.In the first quarter of the current financial year, HPCL registered gross sales of Rs 54,802 crore. Domestic sales of petroleum products increased to 8.46 MT, registering a growth of five per cent over the first quarter of the previous year — better than the industry’s average growth rate of 2.7 per cent. Sales of petrol increased by 12.9 per cent, aviation turbine fuel by 20.1 per cent, and lubricants by 58.6 per cent over the same period a year ago.The company said the increase in profit was primarily because of higher refining margins, inventory gains, and increased refining throughput and domestic market sales, compared to the corresponding quarter last year.Chairperson Nishi Vasudeva noted in her annual message to shareholders that logistics remained the critical dimension in marketing. “The primary distribution infrastructure of your company has been further strengthened during the year,” she added, citing  the commissioning of new depots and revamping of facilities. For instance, HPCL commissioned an LPG Plant at Yediyur in Karnataka’s Tumkur district. This plant has the world’s largest LPG filling system, with a 72-point Flexspeed carousel and a production capacity of 4,200 cylinders per hour.  Three new product pipelines are under implementation at Rewari, Uran, and Mangalore.—  C.H. Unnikrishnan(This story was published in BW | Businessworld Issue Dated 19-10-2015)

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BPCL: Eye On The Future

BPCL is betting big on Project Sankalp, as it will take the company to the next giant leapState-run oil refiner Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) is preparing for the future with an ambitious project that envisages growth beyond fuel and across boundaries. The country’s second-largest oil and gas marketing company recently announced the Rs 40,000-crore venture, dubbed Project Sankalp, which aims at transforming BPCL into a more customer-centric organisation, with a focus on petrochemicals, alternative energy, infrastructure, research and development, and an international presence.Employees at all levels have contributed ideas for Project Sankalp, and helped identify actionable goals with a time frame of five years. The aim is to make BPCL a fully-integrated petroleum-to-petrochemicals giant, and to raise refining capacity from 30 million tonne to 50 million tonne. The company, which continues among the country’s top 10 high-performing companies in the latest BW Real 500 survey, crossed the Rs 5000-crore mark in profitability for the first time. Its net profit for 2014-15 was around Rs 5,084.5 crore, up 25 per cent from Rs 4,061 crore a year ago, on total revenues of Rs 2,53,255 crore.The company started the current financial year with a stellar performance, with its net profit at around Rs 2,377 crore in the first quarter. It notes that this was despite the softening of international crude prices and increased competition in diesel after price deregulation. “As we stand on the threshold of rapid growth of the economy, there are ample opportunities to grow and spread our wings, and Project Sankalp is the company’s resolve to take itself to the next giant leap,” chairman and managing director S. Varadarajan told BW Businessworld after its latest annual general meeting on 9 September.As part of Project Sankalp, BPCL plans to set up a petrochemicals complex in Kochi. With environmental clearances in place and a commitment for a Rs 4,000-crore loan from SBI, work on the project is likely to start soon, and is expected to be completed by 2018.Earlier, BPCL and LG Chem had signed an agreement in July 2012 to set up a super absorbent polymers (SAP) plant in Kochi. BPCL had tried unsuccessfully to buy the critical technology to make speciality propylene derivatives and SAP, as currently only five companies in the world have this technology. BPCL says it is still in talks with all the players, and hopes to seal a joint venture deal soon. But even a delay on this front would not affect overall work on the project, said a senior executive at BPCL’s Kochi refinery. The upcoming petrochemical facility, adjacent to the refinery, will produce 250 MT of speciality propylene derivative products annually. At present, the entire requirement is imported.The change is imperative. In a scenario where competitive pricing and softened crude oil prices are in play, public-sector oil companies are likely to face bigger challenges than before, and need to be nimble to adapt.— C. H. Unnikrishnan(This story was published in BW | Businessworld Issue Dated 19-10-2015)

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ONGC: Shoring Assets

ONGC is going against the tide by keeping capital expenditure up in a sluggish global marketONGC, The country’s largest hydrocarbon explorer, has got some flak in the past for living off old discoveries while privately-owned companies were making new discoveries and increasing commercial production. In 2014-15, ONGC notched a marginal increase in output after seven years - 22.262 million tonnes (MT), up from 22.247 MT the previous year. It was due to better performance of the company’s assets in the western offshore region. The upstream company made 22 oil and gas discoveries in 2014-15.ONGC is a Maharatna public-sector company, and made India’s largest oil discovery — Bombay High — in the early 1970s. It accounts for 59 per cent of India’s crude oil output.In a year when the price of crude in the international market plummeted by more than 50 per cent, ONGC reported an 8.2 per cent decline in income at Rs 1,67,082 crore. Its net profit fell 33.69 per cent to Rs 17,673 crore in FY15. Despite lower crude prices in the international market, ONGC has decided not to lower its capital expenditure. Chairman Dinesh K. Sarraf told shareholders recently, “While many of the global exploration and production companies have responded to this situation by cutting down their investments, ONGC takes this as an opportunity to build its assets.”With a capital outlay of more than Rs 14,500 crore, ONGC is moving into the next phase of its redevelopment for fields such as Mumbai High North, Mumbai High South, and Neelam. During FY15, ONGC completed eight projects worth Rs 27,000 crore. It has already completed nine projects with an investment of around Rs 22,000 crore in the current financial year, and plans to complete another 12 projects worth Rs 13,000 crore by May 2016. ONGC also achieved a Reserve Replacement Ratio (RRR) of 1.38, making FY15 the ninth successive year with an RRR greater than 1.ONGC Videsh, the company’s subsidiary for overseas operations, produced 8.87 MMToe against 8.36 MMToe in FY14, registering an increase of six per cent. Through ONGC Videsh, the PSU has 36 projects in 17 countries. In FY15, ONGC entered Oceania, with the acquisition of an exploration block in New Zealand. As an upstream hydrocarbon company, ONGC has done well to spread its footprint in the downstream business. ONGC’s oil marketing arm, Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL), clocked its highest-ever throughput at 14.65 MMT in FY15. With the opening up of fuel retail, the company has huge prospects to grow through the integration of its oil production and oil marketing businesses.According to analysts, ONGC will have to fight the fall in the crude oil price by becoming efficient and aggressive, as the outlook for crude prices is bleak. Only the toughest players will survive. For ONGC to give value to its shareholders, it will have to increase synergies in operations and derive value out of existing assets. The company may have increased its oil production after seven years, but it also had to write off investment worth Rs 10,000 crore in the last financial year, including Rs 2,700 crore on account of dry wells.— Neeraj Thakur(This story was published in BW | Businessworld Issue Dated 19-10-2015)

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Govt Cuts Natural Gas Prices By 16% To $4.24 Per Unit

The government on Wednesday (30 September) cut natural gas prices by 16 per cent to $4.24 per unit for the six month period, beginning October 1. Natural gas prices, according to a formula approved by the government in October last year, will fall to $4.24 per million British thermal unit on net calorific value (NCV) basis from the current $5.50 per mmBtu. On gross calorific value (GCV) basis, the new gas price for October 1 to March 31 would be $3.82 per mmBtu as compared to $ 4.66 currently, officials said. Using prevailing price in gas surplus nations like the US, Russia and Canada, the government had in October last year announced a new pricing formula that led to rates rising by about 33 per cent to $5.61 per mmBtu for a period up to March 31, 2015 from the long-standing price of $4.2. The rates, on net calorific value (NCV) basis, dropped to $5.05 per mmBtu for six month period beginning April 1, 2015. The price cut is the second reduction in rates ever — the first being on April 1. While the cut will impact the revenue of producers like Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC) and Reliance Industries, it will bring gains for users in the power and fertiliser sector in the form of lower feedstock cost. As per the mechanism approved in October 2014, price of domestically produced natural gas is to be revised every six months using weighted average or rates prevalent in gas-surplus economies of US/Mexico, Canada and Russia to incentivise exploration in deep-sea that wasn't viable at $4.2 rate. (PTI)

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India To Pay $700 Million To Iran In Outstanding Oil Dues This Week

India will make a $700 million oil payment to Iran on Wednesday, sources said, the first release of such funds after the July deal that sets the roadmap for the lifting of sanctions aimed at Tehran's nuclear activities. Partial payments of some of Iran's oil dues have been allowed since early 2014 on the basis of a temporary deal that was a prelude to the July agreement, which will eventually end economic sanctions imposed on the country in exchange for curbs to its disputed nuclear programme. Toughened sanctions put in place in early 2012 had halved Iran's oil exports and strangled its oil revenue, crippling its economy and finally bringing it to the negotiating table. The sanctions are widely expected to be terminated in 2016 if Iran complies with terms of deal agreed on July 14. Refiners will be making payment in rupees equivalent to $700 million to the state-run UCO Bank on Wednesday this week, said three sources with direct knowledge of the matter. They said UCO Bank has already bought dollars in the forward markets for payments into the Central Bank of Iran's account with Oman's Bank Muscat. The sources said U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has already approved the banking mechanism and payment of $1.4 billion by Indian refiners in two equal instalments to Tehran. Timing for the second installment is not yet known, the sources said. A U.S. Treasury spokeswoman declined comment. Indian refiners have been depositing 45 percent of their oil payments to Iran in rupees with UCO Bank since 2012. Tehran uses the funds, currently more than Rs 17,000 crore ($2.57 billion), for importing non-sanctioned goods from New Delhi. Refiners have been holding the remainder after a route to pay for oil through Turkey's Halkbank was stopped in 2013 under pressure from sanctions, although payment of some of those funds was allowed after the initial temporary deal. Indian refiners owed about $6.6 billion to Iran as of the end of August. Essar Oil owes about $3.1 billion, Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd  $2.8 billion, followed by Indian Oil Corp, which owes $581 million. HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd (HMEL) owes $97 million and Hindustan Petroleum Corp has to pay $29 million. Sources said HMEL, which last made purchases from Iran in 2013, has not been participating in the payment mechanism because of a sharp decline in the rupee since then. The remaining four companies will pay Iran amounts in proportion to what they owe, the sources said. HMEL Chief Executive Prabh Das declined to comment. India is Iran's biggest oil client after China, although New Delhi has reduced purchases under pressure from the sanctions. Tehran is now its seventh-biggest supplier, down from the No. 2 spot in the pre-sanctions era.

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'It's Going To Take Time But India Is A Top Priority Market For Us, Says Shell Lubricants’ Nitin Prasad

BW|Businessworld’s Simar Singh caught up with Shell Lubricants India’s Managing Director  Nitin Prasad, to talk about the challenges and future of the company and how Shell is investing a couple of millions in Bangalore R&D facility    Excerpts from the interview  What has been the focus of Shell Lubricants in India?In India, in terms of the domestic market, what we have been focusing on is how can we bring energy efficiency for our customers, how can we bring fuel efficiency solutions that are not available in India today and focusing on total costs of ownership so that we can help our customers in India become much more competitive. It's all about what value you bring to the country and how you orient yourself. In your experience, what are the challenges that you have faced at Shell Lubricants from the Indian policy environment?On the domestic side, when it comes to the movement of goods within the country the GST that has been drafted is a problem for us, it magnifies the costs by two to three times. In terms of having the right infrastructure to be able to service the entire company, the overheads are very high. That makes us less competitive.  What it also does to the industry is that it breaks the benefits that come from consolidation and scale. Most industries like to have one big manufacturing facility and one big warehouse and be able to supply everywhere because thats how we get the maximum efficiency in our production levels. However, because of the way the economy works and not having a GST we actually have to break apart your business and operate in many small different locations as that works out to be more efficient. We ourselves have one manufacturing facility and 17 odd warehouses, and at different locations we import products all across the entire country. We have also had multiple manufacturing facilities, third-party facilities in Chennai and elsewhere. Another challenge is that the mindset so far has been to make the cheapest thing you can and everyone wants to try and save one rupee here and there. As a culture, we talk about value for money but I believe that we often mistake that for the cheapest possible thing.  There are plenty of examples in the industry where people have made extremely cheap products, but consumers have come in and said that these don't meet their basic requirements or basic standards of quality. I see that, as a society, we are demanding more now in terms of quality and capability. Of course, we still want it to be competitive but we want quality now. On the export side, there are a lot of infrastructural challenges and we need a proper policy framework. On our side, we have invested quite heavily in both the labour and technology side. So we are exporting and we are comfortable exporting. But it doesn't take much for us to rank ourselves with other plants in countries across the world and I will say that we are not that competitive.  Being a multinational, we at Shell have 35-40 odd plants across the world, so we really have the luxury of choosing where we want to manufacture our product. We have to compete with all those other 40 plants to get our business. Where would you rank your Indian operations amongst all the different plants that are there?The honest answer is that that we are better that more than half of them and we are worse than the other half. Somewhere in the middle, but getting better. We have been increasing our exports over the years and are drifting towards being the top 25 per cent. In a few years time we hope to be a top quartile manufacturing location and we feel like we can get there on our own steam. The real challenge is going from top quartile to top 10%, for that we would need a lot more support from the environment. Is Shell looking at expansion?We always have plans to expand capacity and have been expanding over the years. If you take a look at the Shell Group as a whole, we are by far, one of the most diversified oil and gas companies. We have been investing over a billion dollars in the marketplace and are continuing to invest. In India, we are expanding our R&D facility in Bangalore, we've put in a couple hundred million dollars to get the latest and greatest R&D technology. We already had about a 1,000 people there and are now growing that number to 1,500. We are expanding our finance outsourcing arms and are looking at expansion of our downstream businesses. We are looking at everything and are very bullish on India. We believe that it is economy that is coming into its own. We think its going to take time but it is a top priority market for us and we are going to continue investing in it. 

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Oil Prices Fall On Slowing Global Economic Growth Outlook

Oil prices dropped on Monday despite a fall in US drilling activity for the fourth straight week, with analysts pointing to a poor economic growth outlook as the main reason for low crude prices.China's August industrial profits dropped 8.8 per cent from the same month last year, and January to August industry profits were down 1.9 per cent."The growth problem endures. Asia isn't about to bounce," said Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asia Economics Research at HSBC in Hong Kong on Monday in a note to clients.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is likely to revise downwards its global economic growth outlook due to weakness in emerging markets.Brent crude futures were at $48.13 per barrel at 0633 GMT, down 47 cents. US crude was 44 cents lower at $45.26 a barrel. Crude futures are now down more than 10 percent since the end of August.Monday's price falls came despite an ongoing reduction in US drilling, which has been on the decline for four straight weeks, a sign continued weak prices were causing oil and gas producers to reduce drilling plans.Yet analysts said US oil output was holding up despite the lower drilling."A rapid draw-down of the observed backlog of uncompleted wells could lead to higher production later this year and in 2016," Goldman Sachs said.Analysts said US output data would likely be the main driver this week for oil prices, especially as Chinese trading slows ahead of its seven-day National Day holiday that starts on October 1.The US Energy Information Administration is due to release its monthly petroleum supply report on Wednesday. [EIA/S]"We expect there to be laser-focus on US production figures ... Signs that US production rolled (fell) could provide a boost to both WTI and Brent flat prices," Morgan Stanley said.Jefferies bank said that oversupply in oil markets had halved since the second quarter to around 1 million barrels per day, and that the falling prices since June 2014 were impacting production."The price signal is working. US production is past its inflection and declines are accelerating ... (and) non-OPEC supply outside the U.S. is also beginning to show the effects of lower investment that arises from lower oil prices," Jefferies said.On the demand side, Barclays said that India "remains one of the bright spots" with oil demand up 7 percent between January and August this year compared to the same period in 2014.(Reuters)

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