Sutanu Guru takes a look at the parallel narratives revolving around India Two completely unrelated stories have hogged a few headlines today. The first continues the frenzy over beef. Apparently, a self-styled protector of Hinduism called Vishnu Gupta whose complaint about beef consumption led the Delhi Police to the door steps of Kerala Bhavan. For passionate Modi critics, this was yet another instance of intolerance, fascism, persecution and majoritarianism being practiced in Modi's India. The irony is: even sane supporters of Prime Minister Modi would agree that his regime has simply not done enough to rein in Hindutva nut cases. The other story was about India jumping 12 places in the Ease of Doing Rankings released by the World Bank for 2016. The irony is: even sane Modi critics admit that a jump of 12 places for an economy the size of India is something the Modi regime should be proud of. Do note: I have carefully used the word sane while describing both Modi supporters and critics. When it comes to Modi, a majority of supporters (Bhakts) and critics (sickulars) actually resort to varying degrees of insanity in their ideological and propaganda wars. Just look at one example; or rather ne recent story to see how far this insanity has gone. About one week ago, The Times of India (and most other media outlets) featured a story with the following headline: "British medical journal Lancet to take Modi to task for ignoring health sector". The Huffington Post had an even more telling headline: "PM Modi has failed India on health: Lancet study". Apparently, the reputed health journal Lancet will release a report on December 11, 2015 that will severely criticize India for failures in the public health arena. In case you missed, the report is supposed to be released on December 11. So why this fuss almost two months in advance? The editor-in-chief of Lancet merrily gave interviews to media outlets to explain how Modi has failed India. In an exclusive interview to Times of India, Horton passed his verdict: "Since Modi has come in, health has completely vanished. India is on the edge. If PM Modi does not tackle health, India's economy combined with rising population is not sustainable." Now Lancet is surely a globally respected journal. But even a senior school kid can figure out that Horton of Lancet is teetering on the verge of insanity by making such ridiculous statements. A serious and credible health professional or policy expert would know that the abysmal state of public health in India is a legacy of six plus decades of neglect. Inefficiency and corruption. Surely, Modi-despite what his phalanx of bhakts think he is capable of-cannot wave a magic wand and solve India's public health crisis in just one year? And to say that "health has vanished since Modi has come in" is either grand standing or an acute case of schizophrenia. I simply don't recall Lancet r its editor-in-chief passing such judgments in the past. Or maybe similar verdicts were passed but ignored by the media. Either ways, we seem to be suffering from collective schizophrenia while dealing with the Modi regime. We are in a classic situation where reality and illusion depend on what narrative you follow. Take one more example. A few days ago, Gen. V. K. Singh, a minister in the Modi cabinet, triggered a huge controversy by making insensitive remarks after two Dalit children were burnt to death near Delhi. Around the same time, the Modi regime announced a decision (largely ignored by the mainstream media) that interviews would no longer be required for category B, C and D jobs in the central government. This has been a Modi promise to eliminate corruption from government recruitments and postings. Modi critics completely ignored this historic decision that would directly affect the lives of millions. They remained focused on the narrative of intolerance and fascism. Modi bhakts used the opportunity to point out yet again how Modi critics were blinded by their hatred towards the Prime Minister. It may sound schizophrenic: but both happen to be right in their own ways. In my opinion, we will know by the end of 2016 if Modi the reformer has won or if the Hindutva nut cases have. But one thing is for sure: as long as the bhakts and sickulars are around, the schizophrenic narrative will continue!
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Tanvi BhattTake a moment to absorb this brand leadership epiphany: A hundred days are a lifetime in the life of a newly elected leader or the president; but a blink and a miss in the lifetime of branding!Some of the most iconic world leaders have achieved in the first 100 days of their presidency what some presidents have not-in their entire term. History celebrates the achievements and the impact thereof, of the Roosevelt presidency, the Reagen presidency and of course the Obama presidency with poetic accolades; the changes they brought into the system within the first 100 days of their presidency are not only remarkable but outright inspirational. That brings us to the second part of this newfound insight-the ephemeral relativity of 100 days in branding: how does one build a brand in 100 days-especially when it takes years or even decades in the world of branding to build a brand that is celebrated for its value, consistency and commitment towards building credibility, reputation and legacy. The most iconic brands of the world right from Coca-cola, GE, IBM, Toyota are atleast a few decades old-if not a century; and the same is true with an obvious variation in the timescale for people brands too! Icons like Jobs, Branson, Musk, Dr Kalam, Tata and Teresa, have become such beloved people brands today because of the three common traits that all iconic brands share: Value, Consistency and Commitment to serve, to change the world-which they personify in every act of reason.Let's converge these 2 seemingly contradictory ideologies to build a new line of thought: I believe that it is possible to build brand leadership for people brands in the first 100 days of their induction into this new way of life. It is possible to inspire, influence and impact a change when people embark upon their journey of brand leadership. It is possible to be Iconic as a leader as well as a thought leader once you commit yourself to change. All you then need is the blue-print to accomplish that! This column aims to serve as the very blue-print you require in the journey of your brand leadership: to evolve your personal brand from being a mere leader to a thought leader and from being a thought leader to an Icon.For the next 10 weeks, we will explore a new dimension of your personal brand. Every week I will offer you 10 steps/tips/insights to start building the brand YOU.Week 1: "Brand Your Authenticity"Authenticity is NOT a buzz word; it is the TRUST word. People will continue to believe and trust in you and your brand promise only when you deliver your value-time and again. And only Authentic brands are equipped to build lasting legacies, because they have nothing to hide-ever. Then there is also the icing of happiness: When you are true to YOU, you evolve into a happier soul. Only when you are able to live a life doing what you really love to do, and manifest the values you hold dear to your heart, your Soul realizes its true destiny. Here are the 10 steps to discover your personal brand's authentic soul;How to use this 'Be Iconic Blueprint': Go ahead and accomplish one step every single day for the next 100 days religiously; when you complete these 100 steps in the next 100 days-you will be surprise at the clarity you have about your life, your happiness, your brand and more importantly how to leverage the true potential of the Brand YOU and #BeIconic!1. Discover/ Re-Discover Your PassionsYou are ONLY able to give your 200% when you love your job/work. Ask yourself the following questions to check if you REALLY do love what you do or discover what you would REALLY love to do:- What would you do for the rest of your life if you win 500 million dollars?- What would you love to do 'forever' if you were blessed with immortality?- What would you like to write a book on-what is your subject matter expertise?- What super-powers/super-skills do you posses that nobody else does?- What Legacy/Change/Impact you like to build/accomplish/create that fills you with happiness and pride?Answer these questions with naked honesty; these answers will help you understand what you really love to do in your life.2. Fall in Love with your Job OR Fall out of LoveNot all of us are blessed to be in the jobs we love; however, there are two options: either we think hard about what aspects of our jobs-'Our Work Passions'- we love to do, and focus on doing more of those OR we balance our life with 'Our Play Passions'-which are non-work related hobbies, activities, adventures that make us happy and religiously indulge in them to de-stress ourselves. Infact, if you do have any other hobbies/skills, expertise which makes you happier than your day job-seriously consider honing them to such an extent that you can simultaneously build a second lucrative career around those. The Indian author Amish, is a classic example of turning your passion (for him, the passion of writing) into a highly profitable career--forsaking a successful existing career in banking!3. Lessons from your PassionsPassions are often your greatest Teachers, well, only because you are being a happy attentive student! Many of our passions can teach us more than a thing or two which we can incorporate into our work life or even life! For e.g.: If you love playing chess, it can teach you to adopt a more strategic mindset and moves while building your business. If you love playing cricket, it teaches you the impact of strategic teamwork in achieving targets. If you love hiking/trekking, it teaches you the importance of perseverance in building your business; ditching your comfort zone to achieve excellence; working with people you can implicitly trust with your business and life, etc. If you haven't indulged into 'passion inspired lessons of life' till date, now will be a good time to think laterally about your existing passions and what you learn from them. The reason for seeking these lessons is when we realize that our passionate pursuits have a deeper impact on our life beyond making us happy-the thrill of indulging in those passions becomes amplified.4. Convert your Passions into Your StrengthsThis one is not a day long adventure folks; you have to commit yourself to a disciplined routine to hone your passions. You can monetize your passions, skills, hobbies, expertise only when you have achieved a certain degree of mastery in them. Devote yourself to your passionate capitalization for 30-60 minutes on a daily basis to witness your passion transform into deep expertise in the subject matter over months. One great way is to break your time commitment into two 30 minute long capsules in a day if dedicating 60 minutes at a stretch is a challenge. Like Malcolm Gladwell advises, Practise your Passion for 10,000 hours to ace your expertise quotient in that subject. Have you started counting your hours yet?5. Flaunt/Celebrate Your PassionsIf you want to do more of something-talk more about it! Simple ain't it? The more you celebrate your love for all things that make you happy you are attracting more opportunities to do more of the same. Especially, if what you do has the potential to help others and adds value in their lives- flaunting what you are good at, via offering self-less value addition to your community is a sure shot way to be recognized as an expert-in-progress in your industry. And when all of it is driven with a goal of happiness and contentment, it doesn't feel like bragging, but definitively feels like branding!6. Know Your Core ValuesYour values are the beliefs, ethics, and morals that you live your life by; they are the calling card of your brand as well as your leadership. Having cognizance of what you will and will NOT do in your life, helps you maneuver through life's crests and troughs. List down all the values you strongly believe in; Ask a friend what he/she believes your values to be and do a quick fact check--are these two lists in sync? Do people know and admire your values? Have you been able to manifest your values effectively? If there is too much disparity, try exploring 'why' with a close group of well wishers and work towards re-aligning your behaviors with your core values. If there isn't much disparity in these 2 lists, then narrow it down to your TOP 3 Values which you will never compromise on-even on gunpoint!7. Grow Your ValuesOur Values evolve with our life; things we valued in childhood may have been replaced or appended with the things we begin to value in the professional world. It's important to keep growing your value system to enrich your brand; it doesn't have to be in your TOP 3 but having a rich set of top 10 values never hurt no one! Everyone aspires for something-at any given point in their life-ask yourself, what brands/people brands inspire me? What do I respect/love about these brands? The answers to these questions constitute your VIP Set- Values-In-Progress Set. Grow your brand with rich values every few years to build a richer Brand YOU legacy for the world.8. Manifest Your Values Be proud of your values, and live them every single day. Values aren't valued much unless you live them and swear by them. Bring a little of your values and beliefs to work every day. In meetings, interviews, projects, targets, celebrations, speeches, writings- at every possible opportunity you get-ensure that you are delivering the best of you underlined with your dearest values for the world to witness, value and applaud! Again, this isn't a one day show-you must build it into your leadership life-style, slow and steady.9. Craft your Brand's Soul StatementYour Values and Passions come together to form the soul of your brand, of you! Select your deepest passion (work/play passion matters naught) and 2 to 3 of your dearest values and craft a YOUnique statement which celebrates the spirit of being YOU: the things that you love to do and things that you value. Use it wisely when they ask you next to 'tell me something about yourself!'10. Be IconicWhat is life without Love, without Values and without a Dream? Remember, some of the most iconic people in the world have dreamt, dared and did whatever it took to lead their passions and live their values as they led the world towards a more meaningful, happier and beautiful tomorrow. Dream of a change, and then be the change: Be Yourself, Be Iconic!The author is founder of Thought Leadership Labs
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Sandeep BamzaiWhat happens when the illusion becomes real? In China's case, the world is watching them like never before. Are they putting the ducks in a row or are they like moths to the flame going to crash and burn? The world's attention is riveted. The catechism is brutal, fine tooth comb just a mild nomenclature. On Monday, the highly secretive Plenum opened in Beijing. The event normally held at the Jingxi Hotel in western Beijing, will end with a long communique released by Xinhua, and will then probably be followed by a more detailed statement about a week later, according to Reuters. China's ruling Communist Party is caught in a bitter maelstrom where the internal war on corruption is revealing the warts about its fragile economic mainframe. It will deliberate on the economic and social agenda for China over the next five years focusing on financial reforms and how to maintain growth of around seven per cent. Conscious about its currency and equity crisis in recent times, the Party will once again reset on its appetite for structural reform and equally on the rapid pivot lately from industrials to services and whether this is sustainable and tenable in the long term. The Central Committee which has more than 200 full members, is gathering until Thursday to finalise the 13th Five-Year Plan, a blueprint for economic and social development between 2016 and 2020. Curiously, the People's Bank of China cut interest rates for the sixth time in less than a year on Friday, more or less on the eve of the Plenum, once again showing its intent on why it means business. Monetary policy easing in the world's second-largest economy is at its most aggressive since the 2008/09 financial crisis, as growth looks set to slip to a 25-year-low this year of under 7 percent. China's economy grew 6.9 percent in the July-to-September quarter from a year earlier, data showed last week. For China, a brawler in the globalised world, it is brass knuckle time as it wants to reclaim its title as the fastest growing economy in the world. The Plenum where extreme brainstorming and idea exchanges take place will provide the directional call for China. Contrast this with India where the new administration appears somnolent. India ushered in the new BJP under PM Modi with great hope and expectation. All this has been belied over the last 17 months as a stop-start style of functioning is awaiting deliverance from the arms of Morpheus. A poor dispersal of the monsoon, weak domestic demand both rural and urban, even weaker credit growth and investment pipelines, hardly any structural reform has left a bad after taste in the mouths of investors. More than that, India wants to know what the BJP's economic agenda for India is over the next few years. A great opportunity has been wasted. What India and global investors would have preferred was a big picture from the BJP on what it believes its economic policy apparatus looks like. This economic policy imperative has to be in consonance with a changing India. An India with changing lifestyles, consumption patterns, ideas, habits, the whole ball of wax. Right wing as a rule is good for economics, though the present BJP dispensation seems to be overly focused on winnability in the hustings. Winnability will come with roll outs and quick implementation of government policies. Sloganeering can no longer shut people's mouths, shrinking space for tolerance is equally destructive. Lurching from election to election is misgovernance, more so when people expect so much. A charter on what the BJP reckons is required to double India's GDP every five years would be more welcome. Statements translating into action are the way forward. Domestic demand has to be pump primed, we need policies and stimuli to jump start demand and investment in parallel. Neither is happening. More than short term quick fix solutions, India awaits a new economic paradigm, one articulated by the BJP policy cars on the road ahead with outcomes attached. For a decade India waited for a change and now that we have it, it is incumbent on the BJP to spell out its plans and ideas for reform. Reform that is transformative and beneficial, reform that percolates down, reform that shows up in the building of capital assets, reform that touches and changes lives, reform that goes beyond rhetoric and slogans, reform that not only feeds a young India but provides jobs and employment. Wonder when we will get that? German statistician Ernst Engel as far back as 1857 created what is known as Engel’s Law which states the percentage of income allocated for food purchases decreases as income rises. Essentially, this translates into – as household income rises, the percentage of income devoted to food decreases while proportion of income on other goods (clothing, housing, automobiles, leisure etc) spikes. While the change in consumption patterns may be because of income, price, taste or preference; ironically 80 per cent of malnourished children come from countries which have an agricultural surplus, in India’s specific case mountains of buffer stock are shown repeatedly when the perceived threat of drought or an agrarian crisis are thrown into stark relief. Given that India is a consumption economy, consuming 67 per cent of its $1.86 trillion GDP – $325billion is merchandise exports and $110billion is software export earnings – $435bn ($70bn in NRI remittances) it is vital that demand stimulation begins in right earnest to set the wheels in motion. That consumerism has taken root in urban agglomerates and is driving the changing equations is a given, but it is also leading to disparity. Though the chasm is growing, the trajectory of incomes is rising in rural Bharat also. A function of higher minimum support pricing for crops during the 10-year-rule of the UPA. The most recent National Sample Survey Office data for 2011-12 was revelatory. Household Consumption of various goods and services report based on information collected during 2011-12 from 10,1651 households in 7,469 villages and 5,268 urban blocks spread over the entire country offers a wealth of data for marketers. I have picked out some of the more revealing data which offers empirical and corroborative evidence to how Engel’s Law has taken effect in the real Indian economy. It is understood that with rapid urbanisation, the country’s income pyramid will alter. *Consumption of eggs during a 7-day period was reported by 29 per cent of rural and about 38 per cent of urban households. Per capita consumption of eggs was 1.94 per month (0.45 per week) in rural India and 3.18 (0.74 per week) in urban India. *Per capita consumption of fish in rural areas was slightly higher (266 gm per person per month) than in urban (252 gm). Also, the percentage of households reporting consumption during a 7-day period in case of fish was higher was in rural India (over 26 per cent) than in urban India (21 per cent) but was higher in urban India for milk, eggs, goat meat and chicken. *Consumption of carrots, lemons, cauliflowers, cabbages and tomatoes was appreciably more common in urban areas of the country, while potatoes, onions, gourds/pumpkins and brinjal were reported to be consumed by a greater percentage of households in rural areas in a 7-day period. The average rural Indian consumed about 1 kg 965 gm of potatoes a month, about 350 gm more than the average urban resident. *Per capita urban consumption of all the commonly consumed fruits and nuts exceeded rural consumption whether measured in terms of value or quantity. Rural-urban disparities in consumption were relatively low in case of coconuts, mangoes, groundnuts and bananas, and high for apples, grapes and oranges. *Expenditure on tea (tea leaf plus purchased ready-to-drink tea) was about Rs.28 per person per month in rural India and about Rs.48 in urban India. *In the urban sector the contribution of purchased cooked meals to food expenditure per person per month was Rs.58. Purchases of ready-to-eat cooked snacks from restaurants, food stalls, etc. were reported by nearly 60 per cent of urban households during the last 7 days and amounted to about Rs.37 per person per month in urban India. Cereals, Pulses & Edible OilRice consumption per person per month in rural India was estimated as 5.98 kg in 2011- 12 compared to 6.38 kg in 2004-05 – a fall of 0.4 kg in 7 years. In urban India the fall in rice consumption between these two years was 0.2 kg per person per month – from 4.71 kg to 4.49 kg. Per capita consumption of PDS rice has, however, doubled in rural India and risen by 66 per cent in urban India since 2004-05, implying that the share of PDS purchases in rice consumption has risen substantially. Per capita consumption of wheat in 2011-12 showed a slight rise since 2004-05 of about 0.1 kg per person per month in rural areas and a fall of 0.35 kg in urban areas. As in case of rice, the share of PDS purchase in wheat consumption has increased considerably, per capita consumption of PDS wheat having more than doubled since 2004-05 in both sectors. For the pulses-and-pulse-products group as a whole, per capita consumption rose by 77- 78 gm between 2004-05 and 2011-12 – from 705 gm per month to 783 gm in the rural sector and from 824 gm to 901 gm in the urban sector. Of this rise, however, as much as 69 gm in the rural sector and 57 gm in the urban sector was contributed by the four items split gram, whole gram, pea and besan. The four pulses arhar, moong, masur and urd – which in 2011-12 together made up about 64 per cent of consumption of pulses and pulse products in rural India and 68 per cent in urban India – registered a total increase in monthly per capita consumption of only 14 gm in the rural sector and 18 gm in the urban sector over this 7-year period. Monthly per capita edible oil consumption was estimated as 674 gm in rural India and 853 gm in urban India. Among the different kinds of edible oil, mustard oil had the largest share – about 45 per cent – in the rural sector and refined oil (which includes sunflower oil and soyabean oil) had the largest share – 47 per cent – in the urban. And as incomes rise, the share of wallet of consumer spending will also go up. Right now Indian households have a preponderance to spend on what is called FB&T (food beverages and tobacco) but as lifestyle change communication, transport and healthcare will assume enormous significance. A McKinsey study details the change in spend over the next few years reflecting Engel’s wisdom. India has to play to its strength which is to stimulate demand in the local economy. Look at an old economic theorem – economic activity moves on wheels – and one will understand why this is our strongest suite. Manufacturing of more cars, two wheelers and trucks means more consumption in the domestic market spurring overall consumption and generating economic activity. Both the One Rank One Pension and the Seventh Pay Commission payouts are likely to spur domestic demand for automobiles and other consumer goods and may well emerge as game changers. India is changing rapidly, the new dispensation was brimming with ideas which unfortunately are taking too long to fructify, commerce and economics is the only axis and the centrifuge of an emerging economy’s discourse. We shouldn’t be caught out as the ground is shifting beneath our feet. Prepping for the change is paramount. Play to your strength, jumpstart domestic demand. Show your vision and provide a blueprint.
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The last few months have been difficult for most diamond mining companies who have reported drops in production and sales as a result of the prevailing trading conditions. Stephen Rego analyses whether this upstream crisis will help in reshaping the way in which the industry goes about its business. Two of the world’s largest diamond mining companies, De Beers and Alrosa, released their quarterly production updates last week and the figures clearly tell the tale of an industry passing through a severe crisis. De Beers, the oldest and best known name in the sector said that production of rough diamonds dipped by 27 per cent in the three months ended September 30, 2015 to a level of 6 mn carats. (To put this in perspective, production for the last six quarters has varied between 7.5 - 8.5 million carats). Parent company Anglo American plc stated that production was reduced “to better reflect current trading conditions”. While Russian giant Alrosa, currently the largest producer by volume said that its rough production for the quarter was up nearly 20 per cent to 11.6 mn carats, the fact is that only 4.9 mn carats were actually sold. (Once again, to put this in perspective, the miner had earlier reported near 100 per cent sale of the 18 million carats produced in H1 2015). The two follow different models – De Beers aims to maximise shareholder value and not hold large quantities of unsold goods, hence cuts production in times of crisis. On the other hand, the government-backed Alrosa stockpiles unsold rough for sale at a future date when the market picks up. The next biggest miner, Rio Tinto Diamonds reported a 20 per cent year-on-year production increase to 4.28 million carats in Q3. However, this was 9 per cent lower than its production in Q2 2015. Rio Tinto also announced its “decision to pause final product processing in the fourth quarter at Argyle (its mine in Australia) in light of current market conditions” and reduced its projected diamond production in 2015 to 18 million carats from the earlier 20 million carats. De Beers, which earlier this year reduced 2015 production guidance from 32 million carats to “between 29-31 million carats”, has further cut the figure to ~29 million carats, which it says will be “subject to trading conditions”. Alrosa, on the other hand, has confirmed that is was not amending its previously announced production plan of 38 million carats. The crisis that the miners now face has not arisen all of a sudden. It has confronted other sections of the pipeline over the last 8-10 months, hitting both downstream retailers and mid-stream manufacturers quite severely. Stephen RegoRetail sales in the US, the world’s largest diamond jewellery market, last Christmas were slower than expected, but the real crunch arose when China, the No 2 consumer reported a dramatic slowdown in 2015. The impact of this hit manufacturers, especially in India, who were already operating on wafer-thin margins. Though miners had reduced rough prices to an extent, many manufacturers decided it no longer made business sense to buy goods that would not move easily and at prices that would not yield profits. Rough imports into India in the first half of FY 2016 have thus fallen drastically – by a massive 26 per cent in value terms and nearly 16 per cent in volume terms. Over two decades ago, De Beers controlled the vast majority of diamond production and played the role of custodian at such critical times, managing supplies to the market and regulating prices in a manner that helped the pipeline ride out the troughs. But, the face of the mining industry has changed since then. Though De Beers is still a dominant player, it is no longer a privately held company. Alrosa is now the largest volume producer of rough diamonds, and vastly different from the company that it was in the Soviet days. The African nations where the diamonds are mined want a larger share of the pie. In this changed scenario, the major players in the industry came together earlier this year under the banner of the Diamond Producers Association, the first such body in its over 100 year old history. Last week, the body took a more concrete shape with the appointment of Jean-Marc Lieberherr (MD of Rio Tinto’s diamond business) as Chairman, Stephen Lussier (CEO of De Beers Group’s Forevermark brand) as Vice-chair, and Sally Morrison (formerly with World Gold Council) as Managing Director of Marketing. In a separate development, De Beers has also relaunched its iconic “A diamond is forever” marketing campaign in the US, and announced vigorous generic promotions there over the next few months; both activities it had suspended over a decade and a half ago. Rio Tinto has also been working with retailers in India to promote diamond jewellery through its ‘Nazraana’ campaign, and recently Alrosa signed a direct sourcing agreement with Signet, the world’s largest retailer of diamond jewellery. Clearly, the upstream players have realised that the challenges they face cannot be addressed in isolation from the rest of the pipeline. It could perhaps mark the start of a reshaping of the way the industry goes about its business. Stephen Rego has been a journalist since the mid-1980s, and has spent close to two decades tracking the gem and jewellery industry while holding different editorial positions in industry specific publications and websites
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The digital revolution has changed the world significantly in the last decade. Algorithm and computing capabilities are the ingredients behind the massive digital revolution. The complex algorithms have helped in building critical applications and software to ease our day to day activities. Algorithm along with massive computing infrastructure helps in solving critical problems in real-time, and help in forecasting and prediction. We are in Second Machine Age (according to the authors Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee) where the machines can think and auto-correct themselves. Even after decades of research and study, the field of Artificial Intelligence AI is still one of the elusive subjects in computer science for its massive scope ranging from medicine and space travel to warfare. Enterprises are turning to artificial intelligence (AI) to help analyse data and use it to make effective business decisions and solve business problems.The term artificial intelligence was first coined by John McCarthy in 1956. It has come a long way from science fiction movies to become a reality today. The machines are no more just smart - they are becoming super intelligent with the ability to think and react like humans. The AI can be divided into 3 major categories:" Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI): Mostly referred to as weak AI. Artificial Narrow Intelligence is the AI that specializes in a single area of operation. e.g. a calculator program can work just to calculate numbers. It cannot help in setting a reminder for something." Artificial General Intelligence (AGI): AGI is referred to as strong AI. This AI can be as strong as a human brain. The machine can perform any intellectual work that human being can. Building an AGI is much tougher than building an ANI. e.g. IBM Watson, Wipro Holmes" Artificial Super-intelligence (ASI): ASI is an intellect that is much smarter than humans. It can range from computers which are little smarter than humans to computers that are trillion times more smart.There are many factors driving the growth in machine learning:" The volumes of data generated by social media, digitization of financial services, rise of e-commerce, increased use of M2M devices and sensors and data generated from connected devices." The complexities of connected subsystems and their interactions result in system dynamics that can no longer be fully comprehended, even by the smartest engineers." Traditional system engineering has become a bottle-neck in delivering cost-effective solutions." The availability of less expensive in-memory storage, faster computer hardware and easy-to-use cloud solutions.Current ScenarioAs per a study by BCC research, the global market for smart machines will grow to $15.3 billion by 2019 with an average annual growth rate of 19.7%. The smart machine market is divided into 5 segments:" Expert Systems: Help users solve complex issues by providing recommendation derived from their own knowledge base. e.g. medical decision support systems, smart grids" Autonomous Robots: They do not need human assistance and move freely. They have different degrees of autonomy. e.g. spirit rover, Opportunity rover, Topio (humanoid robot) " Intelligent Assistants: They make their own decisions depending upon the issues. e.g Apple's Siri" Embedded Systems: They are present in different machines where they control their function and make useful applications possible." Neurocomputers: They work as human brains. The neurons trigger one another and learn to recognize patterns and interrelationships.Wide range of research activity is undergoing to make machines super intelligent so that they can take their own decisions based upon historical data, used cases and other resources. Machines are slowly entering different sectors such as medicine, manufacturing, national security, etc. Amazon, Google, IBM and Microsoft are the biggest players trying to dominate the machine learning market. IBM Watson is a cognitive computing system which understands natural language and is built to mirror the same learning process like the humans i.e. Observe, Interpret, Evaluate and Decide. Similarly, Wipro Technology has developed a cognitive computing system called Holmes - a cognitive machine learning platform to help a company improve its internal efficiency and productivity. TCS is also working on machine vision and video analytics to improve Retail Market Operations and Bank Automation. These intelligent video analytics can be used to understand the customer behaviour and offer actionable insights.Other significant advancements in machine learning are Google's Prediction and Microsoft's Azure machine learning. Voice recognition and personal assistance systems like Apple's Siri and Microsoft's Cortana and Google's Now are gaining popularity in the mobile platform.Used cases of Artificial IntelligenceAI has become a reality and has wide scope of use even in its early stages of development. The super intelligent machines are making complex decisions in different functional areas across the industries." Health Care: The computer-aided diagnostics are gaining popularity in the healthcare sector. The intelligent machines can take patient's condition such as vital signs, symptoms, lab tests or toxic exposure to provide disease classification or even recommended therapy." Environment: Smart machines analyse sensor data in hazardous environments such as measurement of air quality, equipment performance or employee productivity, or even some typical behaviour to predict the likelihood of accidents. This application has been widely adopted to alert truck drivers for potential accidents. Stanford university researchers are using machine learning AI program along with NASA's collection of solar observations to predict solar flares of the Sun. The ORCHID project, a consortium of UK universities and private firms aims to streamline disaster response by combining human and artificial intelligence into an efficient complementary unit known as a Human Agent Collective (HAC). The computer systems being developed can assume tasks such as directing surveillance drones, resource management and search planning." Public Services: Machines can estimate criminal activities like public offence, death, murder and theft by taking inputs of the current condition of a city. i.e. weather, season, traffic, sport events, recent crimes and prisoner releases. It can help in improving the security resources e.g. police." Smart Cities and Smart Transportation: Machines can help in traffic optimization by analysing traffic patterns using sensor data, accidents and roadworks. They can predict delays or road obstructions and can recommend faster route for public and commercial vehicles." Retail: The machine model can help in recommending product to customers. The propensity-to-buy model analyses customer profile i.e. customer information, activities, recent purchases, etc. to understand the buying behaviour and recommends products. It also determines the churn rate. Machines can analyse the historical sale data, competition, weather and customer profile to estimate demand for a product and thus the price.LimitationsThough machine learning and AI are helping humans in everyday activity and they possess a wide scope of usage, they have some limitations too.Security: Security is a concern as there are threats of hackers and spammers who can alternate the controls of an intelligent machine to create hostile situation.Lack of regulations: The AI and machine industry still do not have proper regulation and policies. There needs to be strong policies and regulations around full automation in different industries.Healthcare diagnosis: A proper diagnosis of a patient needs analysis of structure, unstructured data, image data (X-Ray) and visual cues from the patient. At the early stage, the AI machines cannot fully analyse the situation.Coding error: A simple coding error may result in unexpected outputs sometimes which minimizes the usability of AI in sensitive areas such as national security, healthcare diagnosis, etc.The author, Hemant Joshi, is a partner with Deloitte Haskins & Sells LLP
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India is a country where apart from government organizations, private, public, non-profit, etc. occupy massive space in the market. In a developing country like ours, the question stumbled upon is why and how to review the performance of say a company, to compare operations of an organisation with its competitors and why is it important to measure, analyze & benchmark customer satisfaction levels. How are they interconnected and why are they relevant for an organisation.Benchmarking is the practice of a business comparing key metrics of their operations to other similar companies. In the business world, companies use benchmarking as a point of reference as well. They use benchmark reports & analytics, as a way to compare themselves to others in the industry. It is a way by which you can quickly determine the real health of the business. A benchmark report can examine things like revenue, expenses, production amounts, employee productivity, etc. Benchmarking as a process helps us to assess the organization's strategy, products, and processes, and compare them with those of the world's best-in-class organisations. The analytics also brings out specific opportunity areas to improve to thrive and even survive - which in today's volatile world - is the question most management are seeking answers on.For a company to differentiate itself from its competitors, also requires benchmarking as a strategic management imperative. Benchmarking occurs across all types of companies and industries, services, technology, education, and manufacturing to name a few. Benchmarking and related analytics hold great importance for most evolved companies - who use such measures and diagnostics as a strategic driver of improvement, growth and profitability.Companies use benchmarking as a way to help become more competitive. By looking at how other companies are doing, they can identify areas where they are underperforming. Companies are also able to identify ways that can improve their own operations without having to recreate the wheel. They are able to accelerate the process of change because they have models from other companies in their industry to help guide their changes.For this measurement, there is the need for an index that can help us measure the performance. For the measurement of the performance of the organization and customer satisfaction levels and to know where exactly the company lies in the market, we need to benchmark, we need a reference. For the measurement and analysis of the performance, the organization needs to know at what level it is standing when compared to the competitors.Hence, benchmarking is essential so as to have a comparative analysis on various factors, as to where do the organization stands at the national and international level. This comparison helps the companies to know where the company is lacking behind and to know the weak points which can be improved upon. We need to have an index that will help us to benchmark all aspects of customer experience with industry peers, do cross sector benchmarking as well as cross national benchmarking.While on one hand, the developed countries are already aware of the need for measurement of the company's performance on customer satisfaction and have been using this measurement & diagnostics measures, in developing countries like ours, the need has not yet been recognized. . Addressing this issue and bringing it to the forefront is important. In a country where the companies and organizations are rapidly increasing & growing and survival is becoming tough. Also to maintain the status of the market leader becomes all the more difficult. In such a scenario, one needs to highlight that measuring the performance of the organization along with customer satisfaction analysis is required.Benchmarking provides several benefits to the organization like cultural change, improved performance and better trained employees. Measuring customer satisfaction will help us to improve the performance of the organization and also to drive our efforts to achieve the target in the best possible manner.At the end, the goal of any company or organization is to be the market leader and obtain prominence & relevance for all stakeholders & society. To achieve this goal, performance review and measurement is essential. Benchmarking and measuring customer satisfaction will not only help us to improve product features, design & quality, service delivery & overall end customer experience but will also help improve the performance of Indian organizations', maturity of our economy and society, at the national level.The author, Bawa Grover, is manager partner at Hexagon Consultingbawa.g@hexagonconsulting.co, @Groverbawa
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Sandeep BamzaiNobody goes bust in India. The concept of bankruptcy doesn't exist in India. Indian promoters are loath to talking bankruptcy lingua franca. They prefer to roll over their debt because the ossified laws in India allow them to do exactly that. An anachronism is that one of the most celebrated bankruptcy cases was that of an Indian – Rajendra Sethia. A couple of days back, a Bloomberg story caught my attention because the Modi Government is trying to bring a legislation which will overhaul the antiquated bankruptcy law. Now whether the government will succeed or face the same obdurate tyranny of numbers as recent other reform bills remains a matter of conjecture. Having got a bloody nose on one nation, one tax (GST) and a brutal vanquishing on the land bill, one cannot say what kind of appetite the government will show for reform in the winter session? Another imponderable will be the result of the Bihar hustings. Politics coming in the way of economics is so infuriating in India. According to Bloomberg, the government is attempting to unify more than four overlapping sets of rules, the code aims to slash the time it takes to wind up a dying company or recover dues from a defaulter. Since the current law is reported to be creditor unfriendly, a drafting panel is balancing it. Sandeep BamzaiKaushik Das, an economist at Deutsche Bank AG, wrote in an October 15 report. “The bankruptcy code will help reorganize a stressed business in a short span of time without endless litigation which erodes the viability of an enterprise.” Bloomberg said that under India’s current bankruptcy laws, individuals can go to jail for failing to repay just Rs.500. But the reality is that nobody really goes to jail, Rajendera Sethia, however did. Sethia's Esal Commodities went down with debt of nearly £250 million, defrauding millions from various banks, some Middle Eastern but mostly London branches of Indian banks. RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan sounded profound when he stated in a recent speech, “Failure is inevitable in a free enterprise system,” calling for a “speedy bankruptcy code” to resolve distress while still maintaining the priority structure of claims. The unfortunate reality in India is that there are no moral absolutes and hence bankruptcy is not part of a changing calculus. Multiple avenues are available in India to roll over your debt and stay afloat. Not realising that the bankruptcy model in US actually allows companies to reorganise their businesses. Promoters and businessmen in India prefer to live in suspended animation, rather than seek closure on a failed business. Chapter 11 is a chapter of the United States' Bankruptcy Code which acts as an enabler, permitting the reorganisation under the bankruptcy laws of the US. Chapter 11 bankruptcy is available to every business whether organised as a corporation or sole proprietorship, and to individuals, although it is most prominently used by corporate entities. Once again who takes the hit – Indian banks? The Kingfisher tale of woe is worth repeating.A lenders' consortium led by State Bank of India got Rs 750 crore worth of equity shares and Rs 553 crore of preference shares. Kingfisher Airlines is no longer traded on the bourses, the company is defunct. As of September 30, 2014, SBI held 2.68 per cent of the equity, while IDBI Bank owned 2.13 per cent and Bank of India held 1.08 per cent. The promoter group held only 8.54 per cent. And none of these were pledged or encumbered -United Breweries Holdings 0.05 per cent, UB International Trading 4.95 per cent, Vijay Mallya 1.87 per cent, UB Overseas 1.68 per cent and Kingfisher Finvest less than 0.05 per cent. The shares held by the banks and financial institutions were picked up as part of a debt recast programme at Rs 64.48 in March 2011 for the purpose of conversion against the prevailing market price of Rs 39.90 a share. As early as that the banks were under the cosh and one wondered why this was done? The loss to the banks from this conversion of loans to equity is in excess of `620 crore. Slightly better than the value of the paper these shares were printed on. Let us come to part B where Rs 553 crore of preference shares were supposed to be converted to equity during a planned GDR issue. That GDR (Global Depository Receipt) issue never fructified. Several bailout packages later, the airline is grounded and bust, the banks hold shares worth cipher and shareholders have got it in the neck. Against this, see how Chapter 11 works in the US - "In the U.S., carriers including Delta Air Lines Inc. have used bankruptcy protection to restructure debt and shed costly pension and retiree benefit plans in the years after the 2001 terrorist attacks.American Airlines parent AMR Corp. filed for bankruptcy after failing to secure cost-cutting labour agreements. With the filing, American became the final large U.S. full fare carrier to seek court protection from creditors." The most famous bankruptcy in recent times was the General Motors Chapter 11 sale of the assets of automobile manufacturer GM and some of its subsidiaries was implemented through section 363 of Chapter 11, receiving $33 billion in debtor in possession financing to complete the process. The paring down of GM as it was known in 2009 was spectacular - from 5900 dealership in the US to 5000, from 47 plants down to 34 plants in the US, from 91,000 employees to 68,500 and finally from a gargantuan $94.7 billion in debt whittled down to $17 billion. No, but egos are bigger than everything else in India. They are the size of football fields. Throw that into the washer with the absence of a cogent bankruptcy law in India and you have corporate entities limping along interminably and promoters continuing with their rich and famous lifestyles. First the egotistical promoters flash their ambition by going over the top, taking business decisions which don't make any sense whatsoever and then there is a modus operandi to roll over their debt through recast and restructuring mechanisms, helped along the way by Indian banks whose money has been blown up by them in the first place. It is clear that India requires a comprehensive and well rounded bankruptcy law which allows financially distressed companies to turn around faster. Unfortunately, the system doesn't "provide a framework by which companies can take preventive measures to avoid a further downward spiral." Checking on the net I found that rules and regulations in India allow companies that operated for at least five years and holding a factory license to approach the Board for Industrial and Financial Reconstruction if accumulated losses equal or exceed their net worth. The recourse is available under the Sick Industrial Companies (Special Provisions) Act of 1985. Checking further, I discovered why the entire system is so protracted and painful - "Under the Indian Companies Act of 1956, firms can voluntarily wind up operations or a court can order their closure. In a court-ordered shutdown, an official liquidator will be appointed to oversee the process and distribute the proceeds from sale of assets to creditors.In 2001, as an alternative to the BIFR process, India's central bank allowed companies and their creditors to enter into a debt recast arrangement to help businesses return to financial health. The mechanism was limited to firms that had borrowed more than Rs 20 crore from a group of lenders." The allowance for roll over is at the crux of the debate over the necessity for a water tight bankruptcy law in India. Till then the party continues. Without exception.
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Mala BhargavaThe rate at which robots are managing to do everything thrown at them is impressive – and alarming. If you’re thinking ah, a robot won’t be able to do any of the things I do, you should think again. Whether it’s your role as a parent, the hours you put in as a heartfelt caregiver to someone, or most of all, your job, it’s seriously time to worry. Robots are not just after the widow-cleaner’s job, but absolutely everyone’s. Yes, they do say new categories of jobs will come up, but indeed they may not be created as fast as the old style jobs will be lost and nor will they be in the same numbers. Mala BhargavaAnalyst firm Gartner, at its recent Symposium XPO 2015, told the senior IT executives and CIOs who gather at the event that this future of robots was much closer than is believed. As a long-time journalist, I certainly didn’t think an R2D2-like humanoid would one day be taking my place at the desk, able to write what I do, in my own way. But as soon as 2018, 20 per cent of the business content one reads will be put together by robots, or rather, by machines. If you look at how content today is produced to be caught by algorithms, it isn’t surprising. Headlines and titles are beginning to be more and more similar, “listicles” have become standard fare, and keywords have to be used a certain way to get the required “numbers,” whether those numbers are really people or just other robots. Machines are also getting so smart at figuring out context and real meaning that it shouldn’t be difficult to move to the next step – eliciting specific emotions. That’s really already happening and the reason why writing has to “sell” itself and not just inform. So, there are and will be more “robotwriters” writing reports, summaries, analyses, presentations etc. I’m sure they could be robotjournalists as easily – and they won’t care how thoroughly abused and trolled they are on Twitter either. By 2020, Gartner says, some of the things that robots are just beginning to be able to do, will move outside of human control. Transactions are an example. Less and less intervention will be required to make those happen. Frank Buytendijk, Analyst at Gartner, says says modern digital algorithms are becoming so aware of meaningand mood that they are getting more personal and human. So they arescalable and adaptable and able to do more. Humanity may well be shooting itself in the foot with its own inventiveness, but then, it’s always been good at that.
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