The rupee weakened on Monday 26 August, tracking weaker offshore rates, as sustained foreign selling in equities continued to raise concerns about the gaping current account deficit. Finance Minister P. Chidambaram met foreign investors on Saturday, 26 Aug to seek suggestions on attracting dollar inflows, according to local media reports. The reports quoted Secretary for Department of Financial Services Rajeev Takru as saying the government could announce some measures in 8-10 days. India urgently needs to attract capital as foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have sold about $4.2 billion in bonds this year. Adding to concerns, overseas funds are also shedding some of their stock positions, having sold about $750 million in equities over the previous six sessions. Still, traders remained sceptical about whether India can attract foreign capital to help narrow a record high current account deficit despite the surge in debt yields, as growth is stuck at a decade low while an expected wind down in U.S. monetary stimulus is expected to hit emerging markets. "FII debt investors in India will come back only if there is currency stability but not because of a little higher interest rate," said Samir Lodha, managing director at QuartArt Market Solutions. The partially convertible rupee fell more than 1 per cent to 64.20/21 per dollar at 11 a.m. (0530 GMT) compared to 63.20/21 on Friday. The unit has moved in a range of 63.65 to 64.26 so far during the day. It fell to a record low of 65.56 last week, and has lost more than 14 per cent so far this year. Monday's fall tracked the one-month offshore non-deliverable forward rate, which was being quoted at 64.92 per dollar, compared to the onshore one-month forward rate of 64.75. Traders also said importer demand for dollars was pressuring the rupee although they expected that to wane through the session, allowing some recovery in the domestic currency. "Oil companies and importers who missed the late down move in the dollar on Friday are buying dollars today (26 Aug). However, we should see selling from current levels," said Vikas Babu Chittiprolu, a senior foreign exchange dealer with state-run Andhra Bank. The outlook for the rupee will likely depend on global developments in the near-term, especially by movements in emerging markets, traders added. The Indonesian rupiah hit a fresh four-year low on Monday on sustained worries about another country with a large current account deficit. (Reuters)
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Emerging market nations can be adversely affected by large swings in investment and, therefore, must develop tools to control credit flows or risk relinquishing any independent monetary policy, a study shows.These findings were presented at the Kansas City Federal Reserve's monetary policy symposium at Jackson Hole, which highlighted the global impact of the unconventional monetary policy of the US and other major central banks.Many countries, including India and Brazil, have recently experienced steep sell-offs in their currencies, linked in part to the prospect that the Fed might soon dial down the pace of its bond-buying monetary stimulus.The Jackson Hole study highlights a shift in conventional economic thinking, which used to champion an open flow of money between countries, regardless of the consequences."Macroprudential policies are necessary to restore monetary policy independence for the non?central countries," wrote Helene Rey, professor at the London Business School. "They can substitute for capital controls, although if they are not sufficient, capital controls must also be considered."That, said the study, is because countries with floating exchange rates, the dominant global practice, would be abdicating their control over interest rates and credit creation from sources outside their control."Independent monetary policies are possible if - and only if - the capital account is managed, directly or indirectly, via macroprudential policies," Rey said. These can take many forms, including efforts to restrain credit growth in particular areas of the economy."Since, for a country, the most dangerous outcome of inappropriately loose global financial conditions is excessive credit growth, a sensible policy option is to monitor directly credit growth and leverage in each market," she said.Terrence Checki, executive vice president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, charged with commenting on the paper, pushed back against the notion that rich-country central banks should start paying more attention to the international effects of their policies.He said that, in keeping with conventional wisdom at the Fed, monetary policy should be aimed at domestic objectives."It's not clear we can control the financial cycle very well with monetary policy," Checki said.(Reuters)
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The Central Vigilance Commission (CVC) will seek response from CBI on the issue of missing files related to multi-crore coal blocks allocation scam being probed by the investigating agency.The Commission will ask the CBI to give details on the issue of missing files related to the coal scam and also on whether or not it was hampering or going to hamper its investigation, official sources said. They said the CVC may also seek details from Ministry of Coal on the matter.The CVC, which exercises superintendence over CBI to oversee corruption cases probe, had in May last year asked the the agency to look into matter of coal blocks allocated to private companies between 2006 and 2009. The CBI is looking into the allocation of coal mines post-1993 to ascertain any wrongdoing during the NDA regime.The CBI has registered three preliminary inquiry and 13 FIRs so far in the case.The move came up after Coal Minister Sriprakash Jaiswal on 17 August had said that some files related to coal block allocations were missing. Following Jaiswal's remarks, BJP has targeted the government and paralysed Parliament over the issue and demanded a statement by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. The Coal Ministry had then hurriedly formed a committee to look into the matter.Bowing down to the demands of an agitated and dissatisfied opposition, the Coal Minister had on Friday (23 Aug) made a detailed statement in Rajya Sabha over the issue and said that "it would be wrong to classify any file or document as missing at this stage when an inter-ministerial committee is actively engaged in locating these papers".(PTI)
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India's inflation could accelerate in the current fiscal year due to the rupee's sharp depreciation, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said in a report on Thursday 22 August. The Indian rupee touched record low of 65.52/dollar on Thursday and is down 16 per cent so far this year despite efforts by policymakers to prop it up. "The pass-through of the depreciation of the rupee exchange rate by about 11 per cent in the four months of 2013-14 is incomplete and will put upward pressure as it continues to feed through to domestic prices," the RBI said in its annual report for the 2012-13 fiscal year ending last March. Asia's third-largest economy has been pummelled by a selloff in emerging markets, with the rupee the worst performer in Asia this year after the US Federal Reserve indicated it will begin winding down its economic stimulus. Headline wholesale price index inflation climbed to 5.79 per cent in July driven primarily by higher food prices and costlier imports as the rupee's fall continued. Consumer price index inflation was 9.64 per cent in July, fuelled by high food prices. "Risks on the inflation front are still significant," the RBI said. The rupee's weakness could also increase subsidy payouts for fuel and fertiliser in 2013/14, the central bank said. However, the report said normal monsoon rains in India have taken a "major risk off the horizon" but said a close vigil was necessary after food prices showed an upsurge during April to July. "If high food inflation persists into the second half of 2013-14, the risks of generalised inflation could become large," it said. India's current account gap, which widened to a record high of 4.8 per cent of GDP in the fiscal year to March 2013, is likely to ease in the current fiscal year but may continue to be "much above" the sustainable level, the report said. "Global risks coupled with domestic structual impediments have dampened prospects of a recovery in 2013-14, and posed immediate challenges for compressing the current account deficit," it said. The central bank's report added that "utmost attention" is needed to contain risks to financial stability arising from deteriorating asset quality of banks.
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A top US Air Force official's remarks that his country is planning to station a military aircraft in Thiruvananthapuram as part of it's policy of encircling China with defence bases has created flutters in India and the government has dismissed any such possibility.General Helbert 'Hawk' Carlisle, the Commander of the US Air Force assets in the Pacific, had told reporters at a breakfast meeting recently that the American Air Force was planning to expand its presence in Asia as part of the 'pivot to Asia' policy. The idea behind it is to ring China with US and allied forces."This is just the start of the Air Force's plan to expand its presence in Asia. In addition to the Australian deployments, the Air Force will be sending jets to Changi East air base in Singapore, Korat air base in Thailand, Trivandrum in India, and possibly bases at Kubi Point and Puerto Princesa in the Philippines and airfields in Indonesia and Malaysia," he was quoted as saying by the Foreign Policy magazine and other media outlets.General Carlisle said "we are not gonna build any more bases in the Pacific to support the US Air Force's increased presence there." The US Air Force has nine major bases in different countries. The new doctrine means the air force will start regularly sending aircraft to countries the US has not had a presence in the Cold War.The General's views have created a sort of unease here.Top Defence Ministry sources said the Ministry is not discussing with the US any plans to base its assets on Indian soil."India is not going to allow any foreign country to establish any military base on it's soil," the sources said."India carefully maintains ties with countries in the world. As a policy, we are not part of any military and do not intend to be part of any in future as well," they said.Reacting critically to the US move, the CPI-M said the remarks of the US Air Force General reveals the Pentagon's plans to draw India into its strategic alliance in Asia.The US has been keen to use our air and naval bases. It is based on the India-US military framework agreement signed in 2006, CPI-M General Secretary Prakash Karat said in his reaction.He asked the UPA government to publicly state whether it was agreeing to such an arrangement."India cannot become a military ally of the US," he said.(PTI)
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Activity in China's vast manufacturing sector hit a four-month high in August as new orders rebounded, a preliminary private survey showed on Thursday, reinforcing signs of stabilisation in the world's second-largest economy.The Flash HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 50.1 from July's final reading of 47.7, which was the weakest in 11 months.But it barely surpassed the watershed 50 line which demarcates expansion of activities from contraction, indicating that a sharp recovery is unlikely.Risks range from continued weakness in exports to persistent overcapacity in key industries, which could saddle banks with more bad loans. And China's leaders are walking a fine line between tolerating slower growth and pushing through reforms needed to rebalance the economy to a growth model that is more reliant on consumption than investment and easy credit.The government has announced a series of targeted measures to support the slowing economy, including scrapping taxes for small firms, offering more help for ailing exporters and boosting investment in urban infrastructure and railways.But leaders have refrained from massive stimulus like that during the 2008/09 global financial crisis, which left a legacy of inflationary pressures and bloated local government debt.The flash PMI "confirms that the economy has stabilised in the short term and downside risks for H2 have declined," said Zhiwei Zhang, China economist at Nomura in Hong Kong.A sub-index measuring new orders rose to a four-month high of 50.5 in August from 46.6 in July. But the sub-index on new export orders edged lower in a reminder of weak global demand.The employment sub-index of the flash PMI also picked up in August, but still hovered below the 50 watershed line."This is mainly driven by the initial filtering-through of recent fine-tuning measures and companies' restocking activities, despite the continuous external weakness," said Hongbin Qu, chief China economist at HSBC."We expect further filtering-through, which is likely to deliver some upside surprises to China's growth in the coming months."The flash HSBC PMI, compiled by Markit Economics Research, is the earliest available indicator of monthly activity in the Chinese economy, and tends to focus more on small to mid-sized firms in the private sector.The Australian dollar jumped and Asian shares pared early losses after the PMI report but investors remained wary of negative fallout for Asia if the US central bank begins to taper back its massive stimulus programme as early as next month. Copper rose and crude oil prices bounced off early lows.Analysts in a Reuters poll forecast annual GDP growth of 7.4 per cent in the third quarter and the full-year growth of 7.5 per cent, in line with the official target. But Zhang at Nomura said he saw upside risks to his 7.4 per cent GDP forecast for the third quarter as growth may pick up from the 7.5 per cent pace in the second quarter."Nonetheless we believe a strong H2 recovery to above 8 per cent is unlikely, as rising interest rates will pressure investment. We still expect growth to slow to 6.9 per cent in 2014."Fan Jianping, chief economist at the State Information Centre, a top government think-tank, said annual economic growth may hover around 7.5 percent in the third and fourth quarters of 2013."As long as China's growth rate remains above 7 percent, there will be no crisis. Double-digit growth is not in line with China's new reality," he told reporters on Wednesday.Like some of its emerging market neighbours, China saw capital outflows for the second consecutive month in July, suggesting its sluggish economy is still deterring investors. But the pace at which money is leaving the country appears to be slowing and its markets have not been as volatile as in India or Southeast Asia.The final HSBC PMI for August is due to be published on September 2, a day after the release of an official government survey. The official PMI, which focuses on big and state-owned firms, has been generally rosier than the private survey, which targets small and private companies.Upbeat data for July ranging from factory output and exports to retail sales has raised hopes that China's economy may be stabilising after slumping for more than two years.Chinese leaders, while making clear they will accept some economic slowdown as they push through reforms, have expressed confidence of meeting their 7.5 percent growth target this year - which would be China's slowest growth in 23 years.Radical reforms, such as full interest rate liberalisation, appear to off the table for now although they may be tackled in October, when the Communist Party holds a key meeting that will set its economic agenda for the next decade.Until then authorities are expected to reach for low-hanging fruit: uncontroversial reforms that could have only modest impact on growth.One case in point came in July, when the central bank scrapped the floor on bank lending rates, in a long-awaited reform that signalled determination to carry out market-oriented reforms. But the central bank left a ceiling on deposit rates unchanged, avoiding for now what many economists see as the most important step Beijing needs to take to free up interest rates.For sure, Beijing will not rush into full yuan convertibility - a part of its push to make it a global currency - by dismantling capital controls at a time when volatile capital flows in emerging markets are raising concerns about economic stability.Annual economic growth slowed to 7.5 per cent in the April-June period from the 7.7 per cent in the previous three months - the ninth quarter of slowdown in the past 10 quarters. (Reuters)
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India's inflation could accelerate in the current fiscal year due to the rupee's sharp depreciation, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said in a report on Thursday, 22 August.The Indian rupee touched record low of 65.52/dollar on Thursday and is down 16 per cent so far this year despite efforts by policymakers to prop it up."The pass-through of the depreciation of the rupee exchange rate by about 11 per cent in the four months of 2013-14 is incomplete and will put upward pressure as it continues to feed through to domestic prices," the RBI said in its annual report for the 2012-13 fiscal year ending last March.Asia's third-largest economy has been pummelled by a selloff in emerging markets, with the rupee the worst performer in Asia this year after the US Federal Reserve indicated it will begin winding down its economic stimulus.Headline wholesale price index inflation climbed to 5.79 per cent in July driven primarily by higher food prices and costlier imports as the rupee's fall continued. Consumer price index inflation was 9.64 per cent in July, fuelled by high food prices."Risks on the inflation front are still significant," the RBI said.The rupee's weakness could also increase subsidy payouts for fuel and fertiliser in 2013-14, the central bank said.However, the report said normal monsoon rains in India have taken a "major risk off the horizon" but said a close vigil was necessary after food prices showed an upsurge during April to July."If high food inflation persists into the second half of 2013-14, the risks of generalised inflation could become large," it said.India's current account gap, which widened to a record high of 4.8 per cent of GDP in the fiscal year to March 2013, is likely to ease in the current fiscal year but may continue to be "much above" the sustainable level, the report said."Global risks coupled with domestic structual impediments have dampened prospects of a recovery in 2013-14, and posed immediate challenges for compressing the current account deficit," it said.The central bank's report added that "utmost attention" is needed to contain risks to financial stability arising from deteriorating asset quality of banks.(Reuters)
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The Cabinet is likely to consider on August 22 the Direct Taxes Code (DTC) Bill, which seeks to overhaul the over 50-year old income-tax law, with minor rejigs in the draft, including in the income-tax slabs. "The DTC Bill is on the agenda of the Cabinet meeting tomorrow," a source said. The exemption limit at Rs 2 lakh for individual tax payers is unlikely to be touched, but a new slab of 35 per cent may be introduced for the super-rich. Besides, Minimum Alternate Tax (MAT) may be levied on book profit and not on gross assets, sources said. Further, the Securities Transaction Tax (STT) is likely to be retained, as against the recommendation of the Standing Committee on Finance that the levy be abolished. Among other things, the Standing Committee, headed by senior BJP leader Yashwant Sinha, had suggested raising the income-tax exemption limit to Rs 3 lakh from Rs 2 lakh proposed in the DTC Bill, 2010. The DTC bill, which aims to rationalise tax rates to bring more people and companies under the tax net, was introduced in Parliament in 2010. Finance Minister P Chidambaram had earlier said he intends to bring the DTC Bill in the Monsoon session of Parliament, following submission of the Standing Committee's recommendations. The ongoing Monsoon session is scheduled to end on August 30. The first draft prepared by Chidambaram in 2009 had proposed an income-tax slabs of Rs 1.6-10 lakh, Rs 10-25 lakh and Rs 25 lakh and above. Besides, corporate tax was proposed at 25 per cent. This was followed by the draft DTC Bill prepared by then-Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee in 2010, which proposed the slabs at Rs 2-5 lakh, Rs 5-10 lakh and Rs 10 lakh and above and corporate tax at 30 per cent. The Standing Committee suggested slabs of Rs 3-10 lakh, Rs 10-20 lakh and Rs 20 lakh and above. On corporate tax, it recommended the rate be retained at 30 per cent.
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