India has relaxed restrictions on the export of cotton by the state-run Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) in the current season to end-September as the world's second-biggest cotton grower expects a better crop in 2013-2014. Hefty monsoon rains have encouraged farmers to plant more, and the area sown with cotton has risen to 10.85 million hectares as of 1 August from 10.11 million a year earlier. CCI has exported 3,000 bales so far this season, the maximum allowed under current rules. It sought permission to ship more to reduce its stocks ahead of the start of the new-season harvest from 1 October, Chairman B. K. Mishra said. "This season CCI has sold its stocks mostly into the local market, and if they are exporting, it means they are expecting a huge crop next season and want to clear the old stock," Prerana Desai, vice-president of research at Kotak Commodities, said. The government earlier on Friday, 2 August, issued a notification allowing CCI to export cotton under relaxed norms. It did not relax the restrictions for private traders. Mishra said CCI had not received any official confirmation about the quantity to be exported in the current and the coming seasons. "We had in the past sought permission from the government to export 50,000 bales of cotton in the current season with relaxed norms," he said. The Indian government, through the CCI and farmers' cooperative Nafed, has bought 2.5-3.0 million bales of cotton in the current crop year. CCI has a stockpile of around 900,000 bales. India's production is estimated to be 34 million bales in 2012-13. In April, the government allowed the state agencies to sell cotton into the domestic market from state reserves. "We will see the market conditions and the international price and then decide on exports. As of now it does not look viable because domestic prices are higher," Mishra said. CCI is selling cotton into the domestic market at an average price of 43,000 rupees per candy of 356 kg, equivalent to 90.65 US cents per lb. Overseas it will get around 87-89 cents for the same variety, two traders said. In New York, the December cotton contract on the Intercontinental Exchange was at 85.16 cents per lb at 1436 GMT. (Reuters)
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Indian government figures showing that poverty has been cut by a third since 2004 has set off a row between the country's main political parties on whether the data is accurate, and a slanging match between two of the world's best-known economists on the implications for policy. The debate boils down to what path India should take in coming years as slower growth puts further poverty reduction at risk in the world's second-most populous nation. The opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) backs growth-oriented reforms that would include a curb on public spending, while the ruling Congress party believes subsidies and a range of social welfare projects have lifted millions out of penury. Neither of these parties has a commanding lead in opinion polls ahead of general elections due by next May, so they will be competing fiercely for the votes of the poor. India's Planning Commission said last week that 138 million people - more than the combined population of Britain, Spain and Australia - had climbed out of poverty between fiscal 2004-05 (March-April) and 2011-12. That left the official number of poor among a population of 1.2 billion at 269 million. "The reduction of the poverty level across the country is a clear manifestation and endorsement of the pro-poor policies and the policy of inclusiveness of the UPA regime," said Bhakta Charan Das, a spokesman of Congress and its United Progressive Alliance (UPA) coalition that has been in power since 2004. Critics say the numbers have been massaged to look good and any gains are pitiful compared to countries like China or Indonesia. Congress party policies, which include guaranteed employment for 100 days a year and plans to provide subsidised grain to 800 million people, are also a huge financial drain. India's budget deficit is already around 5 per cent of GDP and is seen as a major contributor in drooping investor sentiment. "It is certainly an achievement," said Nobel laureate Amartya Sen of the reduction in poverty. "Is it a fantastic achievement? No, because the poverty line is low." A Harvard University professor of economics and a confidant of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, Sen is widely seen as a major influence on the Congress party's jobs and food programmes. Jagdish Bhagwati, professor of economics and law at Columbia University, says Sen is an apologist for Congress and its brand of welfare spending at the cost of reforms. "Sen is not simply wrong; he also poses a serious danger to economic policy in India," Bhagwati wrote in a newspaper column. "The UPA government is now poised to damage the economy, and to harm the poor ... because its near-paralysis on track I reforms has meant that revenue growth has slowed too, making it more difficult to finance the track II reforms on health, education and PDS (public distribution system) expansion for the poor. "At the same time, owing to electoral pressures and with the populist rationales provided by the likes of Sen, the expenditures on such track II policies are set to go up this year." Sen, Bhagwati and Prime Minister Singh all studied economics at Britain's Cambridge University in the 1950s. Empowerment, Not AlleviationMany economists say the Congress party-led government has delayed decisions on opening up the insurance and pension sectors for foreign investment, tax and other reforms and that the inertia has squandered gains of high growth before the 2008 global crisis. The BJP, which pursued high-growth policies when it was in power from 1998 to 2004, says the Planning Commission's figures on poverty are fixed, and aimed at giving Congress a pre-election boost. "The government only wants to showcase their achievements with artificial figures before elections," BJP spokesman Prakash Javedkar said. "So far as the BJP is concerned we want a decent living for the poor. We want their empowerment, not simply alleviation of poverty." According to the World Bank, about one in three Indians were poor, or living on less than $1.25 a day, in 2009-10 compared to 41.6 per cent in 2004-2005. In absolute terms, its estimates show the number of poor dropped to 359 million from 419 million. The government, by contrast, says the number of poor dropped to 269 million in 2012 from 407 million in 2005. However, it uses about 5,000 rupees ($83) per month for a five-member family as its poverty line for urban areas, an amount critics say would barely cover food costs, let alone shelter, clothing and other necessities. Many international economists agree that India has reduced poverty, but it still has a long way to go. "Our analysis shows that while targeted poverty-programmes are important for reducing poverty, a good investment climate is very useful," said Rana Hasan, principal economist at the Asian Development Bank. "Good investment climate is not only good for business, it is also an important means for making growth more pro-poor in India." India's achievements, however, compare poorly with other Asian nations. In China, for instance, poverty levels fell to 12 per cent in 2010 from 60 per cent in 1990, according to the World Bank. Many of India's poor scoff at the idea that they are better off than they were in 2004. "In the past five years, nothing has changed in my life," says Nitai Karmakar, a resident of the eastern city of Kolkata. The 31-year-old, who makes about $84 a month washing cars of residents in a housing colony, says he is not able to marry because he cannot feed another person. Palani, a security guard in the southern city of Chennai, says he takes care of his wife, two children and an 80-year-old mother on an income of $67 a month. "We just about manage our expenses and sometimes borrow to make ends meet," said the 49-year-old. "But we cannot budget for times when kids fall sick and we unexpectedly end up spending on doctors' visits and medicines." ($1=61.10 Indian rupees) (Reuters)
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India's multi-billion dollar plan to give cheap grain to 67 per cent of its population bypasses some of the needy and does not tackle malnutrition, said Raman Singh, the chief minister of Chhattisgarh, which gives 90 per cent of its people low-cost food. With an eye to elections which are due by May 2014, the Congress-led government last month sidestepped parliament by launching its $22 billion food subsidy plan with an ordinance, which brings it into law immediately. Singh, a member of the main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), told Reuters the ordinance should have broadened the range of beneficiaries and distribute protein-based foods as well as rice and wheat. "If you have to end malnutrition, infant and maternal mortality, you have to give proper, balanced and nutritious food as we have been doing (in Chhattisgarh)," said Singh, who was in New Delhi to address a seminar on food security. The National Food Security Ordinance aims to give five kg (11 lb) of cheap rice and wheat every month to 800 million people, more than doubling the reach of the existing subsidised food system. Despite being the world's second-biggest producer of rice and wheat and sitting on huge mountains of grains, India is home to a quarter of the world's hungry poor and every day some 3,000 children die of illness related to malnutrition. "We give iodised salt, pulses and chick pea. We demand the same for the National Food Security Ordinance. We also ask them to broaden the list of beneficiaries," Singh said. A government source involved in food decision making said that rice and wheat were staples for the poor and the government was taking care of those needs. "The ordinance makes subsidised food a legal entitlement for beneficiaries and that shows our commitment. Since India imports pulses, we cannot distribute them," the source said. Singh said his state government's investment in irrigation, free electricity to farmers, interest-free farm loans and better seeds have helped Chhattisgarh raise rice production to 7.1 million tonnes from 1.7 million tonnes in 2005/06. "If we can do it, the government of India has a bigger budget," he said, adding that a debate in parliament would have allowed these issues to be raised. Chhattisgarh's farm sector is growing at about 6 per cent per year, more than double the national average, while the state's total GDP has grown at 8-9 per cent against India's economic growth of about 5 per cent. "You don't get growth by fixing a target. You need to invest in micro irrigation, seed replacement, power to farmers, interest-free loans for agriculture to cut input costs. Slogans do not help," Singh said. (Reuters)
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Indian Oil Corp Ltd (IOC), the country's biggest refiner, said it would raise petrol prices by 1.2 per cent and diesel by 1.1 per cent from Thursday after global prices of the fuels have risen.India's three state-run fuel retailers - IOC, Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd and Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd - tend to move their prices together. India deregulated fuel prices in June 2010.In January, India allowed fuel retailers to raise the price of subsidised diesel by around 50 paise a litre every month and asked bulk buyers to pay market rates.(Reuters)
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The UPA Government's proposed Food Security Bill carries a slew of "economic consequences", including pressures on fiscal deficit, growth and inflation, Reserve Bank Governor D Subbarao said on 30 July."There are going to be lots of economic consequences of the Food Security Bill (FSB), which at the RBI, we will study further," Subbarao said at the customary post-policy interaction with journalists in Mumbai. "There will be pressure on procurement, there will be pressure of subsidy, there will be pressure of fiscal deficit that will have implications for growth and for inflation, implications for surplus income that beneficiaries of food security might have and how they might spend that and what implications they will have for inflation," he said.However, he added that the central bank is still studying the Bill's proposals and is yet to quantify the implications of the ambitious programme."At the moment, the fiscal consequences and the macroeconomic backdrop that will change on account of the FSB is a bit premature to discuss because the numbers are still being worked out," RBI Deputy Governor Urijit Patel said.Early this month, the Union Cabinet decided to take the Ordinance route to implement the FSB, which aims to give nation's two-thirds population the right to 5 kg of foodgrain every month at highly subsidised rates of Rs 1-3 per kg.India will join a select league of countries in the world that guarantee food security to majority of its population. At Rs 1,25,000 crore of Government support, the food programme will be the largest in the world.Analysts have said the programme will put a strain on Government finances and pointed to the excess investments required in the warehousing space.(PTI)
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The government will sell a 7.64 per cent stake in state-run National Fertilizers on Wednesday through a share auction, disinvestment secretary Ravi Mathur told reporters. The sale is part of the government's efforts to raise Rs 400,00 through stake sales in the current fiscal year. So far this year it has only raised about $140 million. The government currently owns 97.64 per cent in the fertilizer company. At the current market price, the stake sale would raise about $17 million. Ahead of the offer, shares in National Fertilizer were trading 8.4 per cent lower at Rs 27. (Reuters)
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The rupee fell to a two-week low on Tuesday, erasing all gains made since the Reserve Bank of India first announced early this month it would defend the currency by tightening cash, reflecting doubts about how long the central bank can sustain the measures. Falls accelerated in the afternoon session after the RBI left interest rates unchanged and said it will roll back those liquidity tightening measures when stability returns to the currency market. The RBI announced measures to drain cash in the evening of 15 July, and followed up with additional steps on 23 July. The partially convertible rupee was trading at 59.88/90 per dollar at 1:27 pm, after falling to as low as a two-week low of 59.92 to the dollar, below its close of 59.89 on 15 July. The rupee had closed at 59.4150/4250 on Monday, 30 July. (Reuters)
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Hours after the Reserve Bank said that stabilising the battered rupee is its priority, Chief Economic Adviser to Finance Ministry Raghuram Rajan said RBI's action in this regard must not hurt the growth too much."RBI has come up with measures to put stability in the exchange rate. With these measures I hope there should not be serious consequences to growth. We must try to ensure that growth is not diminished," Rajan told a summit organised by the NSE, through a video link, this evening.The rupee strengthened to 58.69 to the dollar after the RBI first unveiled its measures on July 15, but has not closed below 59 since then and remains close to 60 levels after it had hit a record low of 61.21 on July 8.Earlier in the evening, the RBI said it will follow a cautious monetary stance, with focus on stabilising the domestic currency and containing the current account deficit.Hinting at a status-quo in tomorrow's policy review, the RBI's first quarter macroeconomic and monetary development report said: "The priority for monetary policy now is to restore stability in the currency market so that macro- financial conditions remain supportive of growth," even though it admitted that growth recovery is likely to be slower.Meanwhile, earlier in the day, Finance Minister P Chidambaram had said that the RBI should also look at boosting sagging growth and generating employment while focusing on price stability."All over the world thinking in changing. The mandate of a central bank must not only be price stability. The mandate of central bank must be seen as part of larger mandate which includes price stability, growth and maximising employment," he said while addressing a function of daily Divya Bhaskar.(PTI)
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