The rupee fell in early trades with the unit at 62.31/32 per dollar versus Wednesday's close of 62.14/15. Month-end oil-related dollar demand will keep the UD/INR pair bid.USD/INR bulls need to defend 61.9 levels.RBI's special FX swap windows, which have garnered over $25 billion, will close in end-November, leading to some jitters on flows.The pair may be in the 62.10-62.50 range for the session.Foreign funds were sellers of $7.8 million in Indian equities on 27 November, provisional data showed.Asian currencies are trading mostly weaker.The yen languished at fresh lows against the euro and dollar early in Asia on Thursday on track for one of its worst monthly performance this year, while sterling climbed on more evidence of a stronger economic recovery at home.(Reuters)
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Pandurang Ghorpade has the weather to thank as he hands out celebratory sweets to neighbours eager for a ride on his prized new possession, a gleaming red tractor bought in anticipation of a bumper harvest."Unlike last year, there wasn't any shortage of water this year," Ghorpade said. "My earnings are likely to rise from sugarcane and ginger crops that have grown vigorously."The best monsoon in six years means similar scenes to the one in Shirdhon southeast of Mumbai are being played out across much of rural India, home to two-thirds of the 1.2 billion population. It also means sales of tractors and motorbikes are surging, raising hopes this pick up in activity will spread and feed a wider revival in an economy that has slumped to its worst growth in a decade.But the benefits may be fleeting because rural growth alone will not be enough to pull India's economy out of the doldrums longer term. The countryside produces only a third of India's gross domestic product and in the urban areas that drive growth, business in showrooms and shopping malls is still shrinking."As we sit in mid-November, we have not seen signs to suggest that there is a significant increase in output," Tushar Poddar, chief India economist at Goldman Sachs, said in a conference call last week.The economy is battling to recover from a significant slump. Growth slid in the fiscal year to March 2013 to just 5 per cent, the lowest pace since 2002/03, as a stalled reform agenda prompted investors to flee. A vulnerable current account swelled to a record deficit, knocking the rupee to a record low.Since then, rural demand and other encouraging signs - a revival in exports and a narrowing of the current account deficit - have given India's policymakers reason to think the worst of the two-year slump may be over.Tractor sales in India rose nearly 29 per cent in October from a year earlier, reaching a record high of 94,227 units. Sales of motorbikes, bought when farmers graduate from bicycles, jumped 18 per cent in the same month.Consumer goods companies like Hindustan Unilever and natural health care firm Dabur are trying to boost rural sales. Helped by the boon, Dabur's net profit jumped by 23 per cent in the September quarter from a year earlier."We are seeing demand from rural India outpacing the urban markets," Dabur said in its earnings release late last month.Finance Minister P. Chidambaram also sees the rural rebound and exports revival as encouraging, suggesting they would help the economy recover in the second half of the fiscal year ending on 31 March.But by the government's own estimates, expansion for the full fiscal year could be as low as the 5 per cent recorded last year, a far cry from the 8-9 per cent growth rates the government of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has aspired to in recent years.Some economists, such as Poddar, argue even 5 per cent may be ambitious. High inflation is impinging on urban demand and businesses are holding back investment until they can see the shape of a new Indian government due to be elected by May 2014.The central bank under new governor Raghuram Rajan has already raised its policy interest rates twice to counter inflation, adding to borrowing costs.The competing pressures on the economy are expected to be reflected in a report on Friday on India's GDP for July to September. Although annual growth is seen rising to 4.6 per cent, a little better than the previous quarter, the data will likely show the economy is not firing in all areas.That is familiar to India's largest utility vehicle maker Mahindra and Mahindra.While the company's tractor sales jumped 21 per cent as the monsoon rains fell between July and September, sales of passenger vehicles including SUVs, mostly bought in the cities, slumped 25 per cent.Bright SpotsExports have gained sharply from the competitive boost from India's weak currency, which is now above its record low but still near historically weak levels.Overseas sales generate nearly a quarter of GDP and merchandise exports have been posting double-digit growth since July, the best run in nearly two years.Textiles, in particular, have made the most of a weak rupee. Exports from the sector have grown an annual 12 per cent this year compared with a 9 per cent fall last year. Most garment exporters are either running at full capacity or have outsourced manufacturing jobs to meet rising overseas demand.But the good times have so far not encouraged other industries to make the kinds of investment in adding production capacity that would help kickstart wider economic growth - partly because domestic demand remains depressed.India's iron and steel industry, for example, is relying on its idle capacity to sustain double-digit growth in overseas sales that it recorded between April and September.Seshagiri Rao, joint managing director of JSW Steel, blamed subdued domestic demand from major steel consuming industries such as real estate, infrastructure and autos."This will have to come back again only then we will see steel consumption growth in India," he said.Weak investment lies at the heart of India's economic malaise. Capital investments crawled at a decade-low of 1.7 per cent last fiscal year. Goldman Sachs expects investment growth to slow further to 1.2 per cent this fiscal year, dragging down overall economic growth to 4.3 per cent.To lift the sagging investment rate, the government has expedited clearances for big ticket infrastructure projects. But the impact on the ground has yet to be felt."Do I see a significant improvement in (investment) activity over the next three to four months? I would say we have not seen evidence to suggest that," Poddar said. (Reuters)
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The rupee opened higher on corporate dollar inflows, with the pair at 62.28/29 versus its previous close of 62.50/51. Dealers speculate inflows relate to Mylan Inc's purchase of a unit of Strides Arcolab Ltd. The deal was valued at around $1.6 billion when announced in February."The deal-related flow has been hitting the market for the past few days," says dealer.Month-end oil-related dollar demand will keep the pair bid.Foreign funds were sellers of $54.27 million in Indian equities on 27 November, provisional data showed.Asian currencies trading lower. SeeThe dollar wallowed at one-week lows against a basket of major currencies on Wednesday, undermined by lower Treasury yields after a batch of data failed to sway markets one way or the other over when the Federal Reserve will scale back stimulus.(Reuters)
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Reliance Industries may be allowed to hike rates for its gas from April after it offered financial guarantees to the government to settle any claims against it over a shortfall in its gas output, the petroleum minister said.In June, India approved a move to higher, market-related rates for locally-produced gas from April 2014, but the finance ministry later said prices for Reliance should be capped because the company's gas production from the offshore D6 block was far below its supply commitment.Reliance, which operates the D6 block off India's eastern coast, has reported a sharp decline in gas output since 2010. Reliance and partner BP have cited geological complexities for the fall in output, but the oil regulator believes they failed to drill enough wells.Falling output had already prompted the government to disallow proportionate cost recovery to Reliance, leading to arbitration proceedings over the issue."They have come forward with the proposal for bank guarantees. There are some arbitration proceedings pending. Till that is settled, they will submit bank guarantees," Petroleum Minister Veerappa Moily told reporters at an industry event on Tuesday in Mumbai.Gas from D6 was earmarked for strategic domestic industries including fertiliser production, cooking gas and power, but has fallen so much that only some fertiliser plants now get supplies from the offshore block."We will put up a cabinet note in 10-15 days. Our ministry is concerned because we are keen to close the issue," he added.A spokesman for Reliance, controlled by India's richest man, Mukesh Ambani, declined to comment on the matter.The minister did not disclose the amount of guarantees, although media reports have earlier estimated them at $135 million per quarter.India, which imports nearly 80 per cent of its oil and a quarter of its gas requirement, hopes to launch a new round of auctions for oil and gas blocks by mid-January, Moily said.(Reuters)
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Reliance Industries may be allowed to hike rates for its gas from April after it offered financial guarantees to the government to settle any claims against it over a shortfall in its gas output, the petroleum minister said.In June, India approved a move to higher, market-related rates for locally-produced gas from April 2014, but the finance ministry later said prices for Reliance should be capped because the company's gas production from the offshore D6 block was far below its supply commitment.Reliance, which operates the D6 block off India's eastern coast, has reported a sharp decline in gas output since 2010. Reliance and partner BP have cited geological complexities for the fall in output, but the oil regulator believes they failed to drill enough wells.Falling output had already prompted the government to disallow proportionate cost recovery to Reliance, leading to arbitration proceedings over the issue."They have come forward with the proposal for bank guarantees. There are some arbitration proceedings pending. Till that is settled, they will submit bank guarantees," Petroleum Minister Veerappa Moily told reporters at an industry event on Tuesday in Mumbai.Gas from D6 was earmarked for strategic domestic industries including fertiliser production, cooking gas and power, but has fallen so much that only some fertiliser plants now get supplies from the offshore block."We will put up a cabinet note in 10-15 days. Our ministry is concerned because we are keen to close the issue," he added.A spokesman for Reliance, controlled by India's richest man, Mukesh Ambani, declined to comment on the matter.The minister did not disclose the amount of guarantees, although media reports have earlier estimated them at $135 million per quarter.India, which imports nearly 80 per cent of its oil and a quarter of its gas requirement, hopes to launch a new round of auctions for oil and gas blocks by mid-January, Moily said.(Reuters)
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Lenovo P780Rs 19,999Ask some people what they want most in a phone and they’ll say – battery life. Can’t blame them, for those who are focused on communication and only want other smart functions to play second fiddle, are hard put to find a phone today that will satisfy them with enough battery life. The Lenovo P780 is built for battery. It’s a business-like looking phone, with metal-plus-textured-plastic making for an appearance that is handsome, though not necessarily cool. It’s clearly a look that will appeal to working professionals rather than the hip youth, who want something snazzy. But it has a whopper of a battery — 4,000 mAh should be enough on any smartphone. There’s also an app that lets you choose your usage pattern, so you can stretch the battery life further. If you are not busy draining out the battery with videos and gaming, this should last a couple of days for sure. The battery is, of course, a weight unto itself, but the phone is overall not at all prohibitively heavy. I’ve seen others this size that are heavier. The P780 has a very nice 5-inch display, with a 780 x 1280 resolution, while some have moved on to full HD. Colours are beautiful, images and text clear and viewing angles are fine. The cameras are 8 MP and 0.3 MP and not particularly good. The device is powered by a 1.2 GHz quad-core Mediatek processor with 1 GB RAM and 4 GB storage. It runs on Android 4.2.1 and works quite fast and smooth. It’s overall a standard Android phone with a few touches from Lenovo and no heavy overlay of annoying interfaces. It also offers a dual sim. Lemon Aspire A4Rs 17,999It's companies like lemon Mobiles and more so Micromax, Karbonn and Lava that are giving the phone bigwigs a run for their money. Not only do they eat up the lower end of the market, they’re now showing that they can make smartphones with hefty specs too. Lemon has come up with an Aspire A1 and Aspire A4 (the one we look at today) in the 5-inch space. A1 even has a stylus. The Aspire A4 may be 5 inches but it doesn’t feel oversized or heavy. It has a nice back, fingerprint resistant and is nicely done, but the metallic-looking strip along the sides doesn’t quite have the“finish” that one associates with worthwhile products. The power button on this device is also a bit recessed and not easy to get to by pure feel. But the smartphone comes into its own when you turn on the screen. The default animated wallpaper is quite quirky — showing off the 1920 x 1080 full-HD screen in all its colourful glory. The image revolves when you move across screens and I was so childishly delighted with this I kept everything else off the home screens. The A4 doesn’t just stop at a great screen. This fairly fast phone runs Android 4.2 on a 1.2 GHz quad core processor with 1 GB of RAM. The cameras are 13 MP and 5 MP — but perform averagely. There are a lot of Lemon apps on the device. The battery is an 1850 mAh, which may be a tad too little for a device you’re going to like seeing the screen of. Wammy Passion Z+Rs 15,990The 5-inch phone that goes by the unlikely name of Wammy Passion Z+ came to the market a while ago with an upgrade to the earlier Passion Z, and with a bunch of advantages. First, it’s got an obvious nice build. It’s a slab, say, reminiscent of some of the Sony devices, but has a look and feel to it. Slightly rounded corners and smooth sides make it easy to hold. That, and the fact that it isn’t too wide to sit in the palm of your hand. The back is smooth plastic and doesn’t need to pretend to be anything else as it doesn’t look cheap. It’s in black and white. The back panel opens to let you get at the 2500 mAh battery as it sits inside neat interiors. Power this device up from the button on the right, designed neatly into the body, and you’ll find a pretty nice screen, one of the early full HD IPS 1080 x 1920 ones. Viewing angles are not bad. Sound is a fraction low, but not disappointing. Surprisingly, it has a good 13 MP camera, not half as noisy as some seen on more expensive and well-known brands. It shows quite a bit of sharp detail, even inside. The front camera is a 2 MP. Running it all — and Jelly Bean Android 4.2 — is a MediaTek 1.5 GHz MT6589T quad-core processor. There’s 1 GB of RAM and sadly about as much storage space because that’s what’s available of the 4 GB on board. You can add a memory card and expand the storage, but it’s the apps that need the space on a device. The phone performs smoothly and is fast enough and offers dual-sim — all offered for a fair price. A reminder that Micromax is by no means the only company that offers value-for-money phones. (This story was published in BW | Businessworld Issue Dated 16-12-2013)
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India's economic growth likely picked up slightly in the July-September quarter as improved manufacturing activity steered it from a four-year low in the previous three months, a Reuters poll showed on 26 November.Any improvement would be welcome news for the government as a string of opinion polls forecast a poor performance for the ruling party in general elections which must be held by next May.Economic growth virtually halved in two years to 5 per cent in the last fiscal year - the lowest level in a decade - and most economists surveyed by Reuters last month expect 2013/14 to be worse.The consensus of 40 economists showed gross domestic product expanded 4.6 per cent year-on-year in the last quarter, better than the 4.4 per cent in the previous three months, which was the lowest since the global financial crisis."It is only a marginal improvement with much of the support from a slight recovery in manufacturing sector," said Upasna Bhardwaj, an economist at ING Vysya Bank.A moderate recovery in Indian factories and exports were probably the main drivers for an increase in overall growth in the quarter through September. Annual industrial output picked up 2 per cent in September, driven by an uptick in export and domestic orders.Stronger global demand for India's exports also led to an increase in production, with exports growing 11.15 per cent annually in September.Also, a good monsoon should have boosted rural income and perked up flagging consumer demand.However, a dearth of investment lies at the heart of India's economic malaise.Little improvement is expected ahead of the general election, with investors doubting whether Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's minority government can force through any bold actions between now and then.Radhika Rao, an economist at DBS in Singapore, said euphoria surrounding Singh's earlier reform plans had eased after they failed to materialise."It is not surprising that the private sector keeps expansion plans on ice," Rao added.With wholesale price inflation moving back above the Reserve Bank of India's perceived comfort level of 5 per cent and consumer inflation quickening to more than 10 per cent, there is little expectation the central bank will act to ease policy boost growth.In face, new RBI chief Raghuram Rajan has hiked interest rates twice in as many months since September, tackling rising prices head on.(Reuters)
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Oil prices stabilised on 26 November after the previous session's slide as traders questioned how quickly the Iranian nuclear accord could translate into higher supplies, while Asian shares got off to a cautious start.The yen regained some poise following Monday's steep decline to a six-month low against the dollar and a four-year trough versus the euro.US crude prices added 0.2 per cent to above $94 a barrel, pausing after the previous session's 0.8 per cent decline following a weekend deal between the West and Tehran to halt Iran's most sensitive nuclear activities in exchange for some relief from crippling sanctions."The interim six-month 'freeze' agreement just reached on Iran's nuclear programme should not have any impact on oil prices, aside from short-term sentiment, because core sanctions on oil and banking have not been touched," Societe Generale said in a note."We see a greater than 50 per cent chance that a comprehensive agreement will be successfully reached within six months....If and when that happens, it could take Iran three to nine months to recover the one million barrels per day in production lost since 2011."MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan inched up 0.1 per cent, adding to a 0.3 per cent rise in the previous session on the back of the Iranian deal.Thai assets looked set to come under further pressure on heightened political uncertainty as anti-government protesters forced their way inside the country's Finance Ministry and burst through the gates of the Foreign Ministry compound, in a bid to oust Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra.On Monday, the Thai SET index fell for a fifth straight session to an 11-week closing low and the baht tumbled to a two-week low versus the dollar.Citigroup said the Iranian nuclear deal could be a "get-out-of-jail-free card" for current account deficit countries, such as India, Indonesia and Turkey, which face a liquidity drain when the Federal Reserve eventually tapers in the coming months.Tokyo's Nikkei share average was likely to take a breather, with futures pointing to a weaker open after it climbed 1.5 per cent on Monday to within sight of a 5-1/2 year peak reached in May.The Japanese currency, which typically falls when share price rise, was up 0.2 per cent at 101.52 yen to the dollar and up 0.1 per cent at 137.27 to the euro.The euro was little changed at $1.35195, having fallen 0.3 per cent overnight."We remain bullish on the dollar heading into 2014 but remain tactically cautious on establishing longs, with a number of U.S. dollar pairs already trading at the high end of their ranges and data unlikely to be consistent enough to support expectations for an early tapering," analysts at BNP Paribas wrote in a note.Data showed on Monday that contracts to buy previously owned U.S. homes fell for a fifth straight month in October, hitting a 10-month low and adding to signs of cooling in the housing market.US stocks ended mixed overnight, with the Dow Jones industrial average posting a slim gain to end at another record high, while the S&P 500 eased 0.1 per cent.(Reuters)
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An Indian court on Monday found a dentist couple guilty of murdering their 14-year-old daughter and a servant five years ago, in a dramatic finale to a case that transfixed the country and tapped unease on both sides of the rich-poor divide.Aarushi Talwar was found with her throat slit at the family home in Noida, an affluent town of new shopping malls and offices near Delhi, in 2008. A day later, the body of the family servant, Hemraj, was discovered.Rajesh and Nupur Talwar were convicted in a local court in Ghaziabad, near Noida, and remanded in custody ahead of sentencing on Tuesday, 26 November.Naresh Yadav, a lawyer present in court, told reporters waiting outside that the couple and members of their family broke down in tears when the verdict was read out.Early in the investigation, police alleged Rajesh had murdered his daughter and servant in a rage after finding them in a compromising situation - the kind of crime more often associated with rural, conservative parts of India where "honour killings" are not uncommon.Both parents were later charged, but the Talwars always denied the murder and blamed sensational media coverage for demonising them and damaging their defence.They also described a Kafkaesque trail of botched police operations, arrests, "truth serum" tests and contradictory rulings by different investigative bodies.Much has been made in the media of the fact that the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI), India's federal detective agency, relied on circumstantial evidence to pursue the Talwars.R.K. Saini, representing the CBI, defended the prosecution."There were so many circumstances that proved that no one could have committed the murder other than the two accused," he said. "The court has convicted them after going through the chain of circumstantial evidence."Rebecca John, one of the lawyers representing the Talwars, said they would appeal the ruling in a higher court."We are deeply disappointed, hurt and anguished for being convicted for a crime that we have not committed," the Talwars said in a statement. "We refuse to feel defeated and will continue to fight for justice."Horrific crime stories are common in India and many involve caste or class.But the Aarushi case, in which police named Hemraj as the murder suspect before his body was found, resonated with the rapidly expanding number of well-off families who fret that their wealth makes them vulnerable to violence.Dipankar Gupta, a sociologist at Shiv Nadar University in Uttar Pradesh - the state where Noida is located - said the case highlighted how domestic staff were frequently abused by employers in India."But at least now there is some progress and people are talking about it," he said.Newspapers this month reported the case of a wife of a member of parliament who allegedly tortured a maid to death at her home in Delhi.Security footage last week of a machete attack on a bank employee withdrawing cash from an ATM in Bangalore to pay for her child's birthday party was played repeatedly on news channels. She was partly paralysed and the attacker is at large. (Reuters)
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Compiled by Joe C. MathewGraphic by Prashant Chaudhary(This story was published in BW | Businessworld Issue Dated 16-12-2013)
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