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Is the government in Delhi irrelevant? Does India’s growth chug along because of what’s happening in states (and state-level policies) alone? Growth in 2013-14 will probably be a shade below 5 per cent. Is there sufficient evidence of the so-called green shoots sprouting to suggest that the worst is over and that growth will inch up to around 5.5 per cent in 2014-15, regardless of electoral outcomes in 2014?On the purely external sector, we can’t expect growth rates in excess of 9 per cent until the global economy recovers completely. That won’t happen in 2014. But 2014 looks better than 2013. Much is made of a possible US tapering. Yes, that has volatility implications. But US tapering may also be countered by greater liquidity infusion in Europe or Japan. If one adds up GSDPs (gross state domestic product) and expresses that as a share of India’s GDP, the percentage has increased over time, primarily because defence and railways have stagnated. But that doesn’t mean the government in Delhi is irrelevant. If nothing else, it exercises a malign influence. And UPA, particularly, UPA-II, will leave a legacy of messing up land markets (land legislation), labour markets (MGNREGA), capital markets (high fiscal deficits, a possible National Urban Health Mission) to add to National Rural Health Mission, Pay Commission, food security legislation and deterring entrepreneurship.Growth in 2014-15 can’t be spectacular. Despite 9 per cent-plus being conditional on a complete global recovery, there is plenty of slack and scope for reforms for there to be endogenous growth to take India to an 8 per cent trajectory. Growth isn’t a mere number. It translates into employment generation, which has also stagnated. However, one can’t get to 8 per cent overnight. If the base is 5.5 per cent in 2014-15, it can inch up to 6.5 per cent in 2015-16 and 7 per cent in 2016-17 and so on. The excess over 5.5 per cent is certainly conditional on the new government and on what it does, especially in the first few months. There is a long list of pending reforms — agriculture (linked to food inflation), infrastructure (especially power), taxation (both direct and indirect), judiciary and police, pensions, insurance and labour market. Many of these require legislation. Not only does legislation have to wind its way through Parliament, it is also a function of the ‘coalition problem’. In the foreseeable future, there will be coalition governments. While the coalition part is important, I think too much is made of it. The collapse under UPA has been more executive.When I say the collapse has been executive, I mean more than the dual power structure under UPA and the role of the National Advisory Council. I also mean the complete collapse of collective decision-making on the part of Cabinet, with GoMs and EGoMs taking over that role. I mean the refusal of bureaucracy to take decisions, compounded by the Right to Information, taints of scams, possible vigilance enquiries and some offensive sections in the Prevention of Corruption Act. There are at least two reports by the second Administrative Reforms Commission on how to ensure that honest bureaucrats are protected, while the guilty are punished. The new Pay Commission, a fait accompli, will devastate state finances, but can be used as a trigger to implement these. I also mean a steady undermining of the Prime Minister and PMO, reflected in the abysmal failure in handling foreign policy. Why should an infrastructure project require 37 clearances across 11 ministries? Why shouldn’t there be a prescribed deadline for forest and environmental clearances, so that if not granted within a fixed number of days, they should be deemed to be granted? Why can’t forest and environmental clearances be parallel, instead of sequential? Why, once granted, should they be opened up again retrospectively? While increasing the investment/GDP share is an issue, the incremental capital/output ratio has crossed 6.5, again highlighting inefficiency in capital usage and the fact that the problem is not just with fresh projects, but stalled projects.What to expect in 2014 is not so much a function of which political configuration forms the government. It is more a function of whether PM/PMO are rehabilitated and whether Cabinet begins to function collectively. There is a related matter too. Under UPA, there has been greater centralisation, with legislation and policies framed in Delhi for state subjects. There has also been an inability to talk to the states, not just on matters like the National Counter Terrorism Centre, but also GST and even foreign policy (where an agreement with Bangladesh has been held up). To ensure perhaps 6 per cent in 2014-15 (and not 5.5 per cent) and set the stage for the subsequent stepping up beyond 2014-15, a stronger PM/PMO is critical. It is desirable. Is it probable? Can we expect it in 2014? Regardless of the outcome of the general elections, I think the answer is yes. Not only is the present model unworkable, there is increasing recognition that it is unworkable. That’s the real silver lining. The author is economist and professor at the Centre for Policy Research (This story was published in BW | Businessworld Issue Dated 13-01-2014)
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Top Republican leader and current Governor of Louisiana Bobby Jindal is planning to run for president in 2016, a top US Senator from his home State has said."I do think, he (Jindal) will run. He is being running. He would be a significant candidate," Senator David Vitter told private American TV channel C-SPAN's Newsmakers programme in an interview."I like Bobby, I respect his leadership, I agree with all of his political values. But I haven't thought about what I would do or wouldn't do personally," Vitter said."Oh yeah. I think that's very obvious to everybody who has been paying attention," the junior Senator from Lousiana said when asked if he believes Jindal would to be president.Jindal's second term as the Lousiana Governor ends in 2015. He can't run for the third term. Vitter is considering running for governor."I would expect we will come to a conclusion sometime in January," he said.(PTI)
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The rupee strengthened on Monday to its highest level in nearly a week, boosted by the Reserve Bank of India chief's comment on reluctance to "overtighten" monetary policy after leaving interest rates unchanged in a surprise move last week.Governor Raghuram Rajan said the central bank had tilted towards keeping rates on hold even before November consumer and wholesale price inflation data were released.In an interview to television channel ET Now, he said when growth is weak, we have to be careful of "over-tightening"."The governor's comments helped the rupee a bit. At least the market now thinks that the central bank will consider growth as well when framing monetary policy," said Hari Chandramgethen, head of foreign exchange trading at South Indian Bank."I expect some support for the dollar/rupee around 61.65 levels with the pair broadly holding in a 61.60 to 62.40 range until the year-end."The partially convertible rupee closed at 61.9525/9625 per dollar compared with 62.04/05 on Friday. The rupee rose to as high as 61.8350 after Rajan's comments, its highest level since December 18.Traders said gains in the domestic share market throughout the day also boosted sentiment for the rupee.Indian shares edged higher as blue chips gained on continued foreign inflows despite last week's decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve to start reducing its bond purchases, although a fall in Infosys Ltd capped broader gains.Dealers will continue to monitor movements in other Asian currencies and the euro for near-term direction in the absence of any major domestic factors, with volumes also lower on account of year-end holidays globally.In the offshore non-deliverable forwards, the one-month contract was at 62.42, while the three-month was at 63.23.(Reuters)
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Ganguly Complains To CJI, Says Not Addressed Correctly By SCDenying that he had ever harassed or made any unwelcome advance to any intern, former Supreme Court judge A K Ganguly today complained to Chief Justice of India P Sathasivam saying he was not addressed correctly by the apex court."I have been distressed by some recent happenings. I am anguished that the Supreme Court under your Lordship did not address me correctly," Justice Ganguly said in an eight-page-long letter to the CJI, which he said was also being forwarded to President Pranab Mukherjee.Stating that after deep consideration of all that was going on in the media with reference to some allegations of an intern against him, Ganguly said he was constrained to break his silence."First of all, I wish to make it clear that I never harassed nor did I make any unwelcome advances to any female intern. The very suggestion of it, to say the least, is out of tune with my personal conduct," said Justice Ganguly, who is the Chairman of the West Bengal Human Rights Commission."I have made helpful contributions to many interns both male and female. To this date, I am treated with unbound respect and regards by them," he wrote in the letter. In his letter, Ganguly alleged "There is a concerted move to tarnish my image as I had the unfortunate duty of rendering certain judgments against powerful interests."He said: "I see in the whole game a palpable design to malign me at the instance of interested quarters."Raising questions about the three-judge committee of the Supreme Court constituted to probe the allegations, he argued that since the girl intern was not on the rolls of the Supreme Court and he was a retired judge, the committee was "not required to be constituted"."No complaint was ever made before Supreme Court or before your Lordship in any form by the intern at any time prior to the formation of the judges' committee and presumably at the direction of the committee she gave her statement," he said.Ganguly said a newspaper report dated December 12 without any verification could certainly not have been the basis of a petition by the Attorney General on which the Chief Justice was reported to have acted."Thus the stated reason that the committee was set up to find out whether the judge was a sitting judge cannot be accepted because the blog expressly disclosed retired judge," he said.Complaining against the conduct of the officials of the court, he said as soon as he entered he was surrounded by a posse of officers which was unbecoming of the institution."I was treated as a person in captivity," he rued. (PTI)
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Joining Assets2013 has been a bit flat with respect to deal-making. Though the year saw the $130-billion Verizon Communications-Vodafone deal — which is by far the biggest of the year, the overall number of deals globally fell by around 10 per cent. The year also saw a rise in the levels of investor activism, which deal-makers say has resulted in delays, leading to scuttled deals. In the US, Michael Dell’s $25 billion offer to take Dell Inc private, as well as the $4.7 billion offer for Smithfield Foods by China’s Shuanghui International were challenged by activists after they were announced. According to M&A tracking firm Dealogic, the tech sector has had the highest deal volume in 2013 with 1,715 deals worth $104 billion, and the telecom sector the highest value, with 233 deals worth $186 billion till 31 October.Barack ObamaState Of SiegeUS President Barack Obama has received much flak for his management skills — right from the Affordable Care Act to the 16-day government shutdown. On 1 October, the health insurance marketplace was opened for enrolment till March 2014, but shoppers were hindered by massive tech problems on the website HealthCare.gov. The Act, often called Obamacare, mandates that people must buy health insurance for 2014 or pay a fine. Obama also came under criticism from Republicans for refusing to negotiate with them over the healthcare law. Starting 1 October, the government entered a shutdown, curtailing most routine operations as the Congress failed to pass the Bill that would appropriate funds for FY14. Obama finally managed to cut a deal with the Republicans on 17 October, ending the shutdown and buying time until 7 February 2014. Shinzo AbeAbenomicsIt’s been a year since PM Shinzo Abe first set out his ambitious turnaround plan for Japan in a bid to jolt the economy out of stagnation. By most accounts, Japan’s bold strategy is working well. Abe increased government spending and installed a central banker with an aggressive monetary policy. Abe even raised Japan’s sales tax. The measures aim to end years of deflation. In a global landscape dominated by slow growth and policy uncertainty, Japan was an unlikely bright spot. Economic indicators suggest the initial stages of Abenomics have been successful, say analysts.Patent WarsThe two smartphone giants — which account for more than half the world’s smartphones — have been embroiled in a series of patent wars through the year. It started with Apple litigating against Samsung in 2011, which resulted in phones from both makers being banned occasionally. The battle expanded from the US to more than 10 countries across the globe. In June 2013, Samsung won a limited ban from the US International Trade Commission on certain Apple products, but that was overturned. Finally, in November, the South Korean firm admitted to using some elements of Apple’s design, and a US jury awarded Apple $290 million in the damages retrial against Samsung.High TrendsThanks to Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, reinterpreting services has gone to a whole other level. Drones, pilotless aircraft, will fly out of military operations in Afghanistan and into people’s homes delivering packages — soon! Australian startup Flirtey has already joined hands with book rental service Zookal to start delivering books by drones next year. Other markets for the aircraft have been identified as bushfire spotting, saving lives by keeping an eye out for swimmers, and even as an agricultural aids; smaller versions are already used for filming, but there are concerns about security and privacy. Seems like in 2014, drones — that have traditionally conjured up dark images of raining down destruction — will get a PR makeover.On The BellUnlike the M&A segment, there has been significant activity in the initial public offering (IPO) arena, especially in the last three months. In October, oil and gas pipeline company Plains GP Holdings raised $2.9 billion. The most recent IPO by Hilton Worldwide Holdings puts it at No. 2 in the year, having raised $2.35 billion. This was a huge boost for the Blackstone Group, which had acquired the hotel operator in 2007, just before the global recession began. The other star was microblogging site, Twitter, which raised $1.82 billion in its IPO — the largest by a technology firm since Facebook’s (which hit 1 million active users in June) debut last year at $14.2 billion.New MoneyIs it real money if it doesn’t come from the mint? There are many naysayers but for bitcoin traders, this was their year. What started off as a little-known digital entity at the beginning of the year became a worldwide phenomenon within 12 months, with people making real money off it. Bitcoin’s value on exchanges shot up from $13 in January to a high of $1,218, and then down to around $500 in December. Experts continue to call it an experiment in monetary privatisation, but it’s one that’s worth billions. Once users have mined enough bitcoins, the digital currency can be used to order a host of goods and services, which also opens it up to the risk of fraud.Making NewsThis year, global print media has been making headlines for selling out at a bargain. The Washington Post, founded in 1877, was sold to Amazon for just $250 million. Red Sox owner John Henry picked up The Boston Globe for $70 million (NYT had bought it for $1.1 billion in 1993). Newsweek was sold for the second time, this time to the International Business Times for an undisclosed sum. These figures particularly stand out, given that Yahoo bought the microblogging site Tumblr for a massive $1.1 billion. But 2013 ended on a heartening note, with Newsweek’s new owners indicating that they may restart the print edition in early 2014. (This story was published in BW | Businessworld Issue Dated 13-01-2014)
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I have told your boss I think he should stop twittering”Michael Bloomberg, to a New York Post reporter. The newspaper is part of Rupert Murdoch’s media empire“You and I may agree if some chai paani has to be given, to get over it, but the younger generation will not tolerate it anymore”Vinod Rai, former comptroller and auditor general of India, in an interview“I am too grown up to be nervous about an election”Sheila Dikshit, chief minister of Delhi, prior to the state assembly elections in which her party was routed“People around the world are confused. They are bemused. But they are not amused by what’s happening”Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF, on the US government shutdown Jairam Ramesh“When I was growing up, Bill Gates was my hero”Mark Zuckerberg, founder of Facebook“Poverty is just a state of mind”Rahul Gandhi, vice-president, Congress“I wish to God that Apple and Google were partners... ”Steve Wozniak, co-founder, Apple“You must unleash the animal spirits, but do so in a manner that the animals don’t become man-eaters” Jairam Ramesh, rural development minister, on excessive emphasis on economic growth(This story was published in BW | Businessworld Issue Dated 13-01-2014)
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Ending almost two-week-long deadlock, the Aam Admi Party - born out of Anna Hazare's anti-corruption agitation - 23 December decided to form government in the national capital by taking outside support from the Congress which the newbie handed a crushing defeat in the December 4 Assembly polls.The party took the decision to form the government at a meeting of political affairs committee after analysing the results of the public referendum it had carried out in the last few days on the issue.Arvind Kejriwal, who led the debutant party to a spectacular victory in the polls winning 28 seats in the 70-member assembly, will be the Chief Minister of Delhi if the Lt Governor allows AAP to form the government, party leader Manish Sisodia said.After the two-hour-long meeting, Kejriwal said AAP has decided to give a letter to Lt Governor Najeeb Jung expressing its readiness to form the government."We were called by the Lt Governor to discuss government formation on 14 December. We had sought time to take a decision as ours is a party of common people and we want to their views."We got responses from the citizens through website, phone calls, SMS and by holding public meetings and most of them favoured government formation by AAP. We are now going to give the letter to LG saying that AAP is ready to form the government," Kejriwal told reporters at AAP's office in Kausambi here.He said the party held 280 public meetings accross Delhi and in 257 such gatherings people favoured formation of government by the party while the rest opined that they it should not take powers.There has been deadlock over government formation in Delhi for nearly two weeks after the announcement of the results on December 8. AAP has 28 seats while Congress with 8 has agreed to give outside support. BJP is the single largest party with 31 seats in its kitty.45-year-old Kejriwal said if the Lt Governor permits, the party would like to have the oath-taking ceremony at Jantar Mantar."It is the prerogative of the LG to decide the place for oath-taking. I would request him if possible to conduct the ceremony at Jantar Mantar," he said.Kejriwal said Jantar Mantar has a symbolic importance as "I and my guru Anna Hazare" had held massive agitation at the Jantar Mantar during the Janlokpal movement.A civil servant-turned-politician, Kejriwal had himself participated in scores of meetings in the last one week to know people's views on government formation.The debutant party was under pressure to form government after BJP refused to do so and Congress wrote to Delhi Lt Governor about giving unconditional support to AAP to form the government.Earlier, both Congress and BJP had attacked AAP for refusing to form the government, saying it was shying away from the responsibilities knowing that it cannot fulfil the promises like cutting the power tariff by 50 per cent and providing 700 litres of free water daily to each household in the city.After the results of the polls were out, AAP had ruled out taking support of any political party to form the government, saying it will play the role of a "constructive opposition".Asserting that there was no confusion over the Chief Ministerial candidate, Sisodia said Kejriwal has been party's choice for the top post."There were rumours about who will be the chief minister.AAP had said earlier that the party would contest election with Arvind Kejriwal as CM candidate. Then in our manifesto also we have reiterated this. After the election results were out, he was elected as the leader of the legislative party. So Arvind Kejriwal will be the Chief Minister," Sisodia said.To criticism about holding public meetings on the issue, Kejriwal said unlike other parties, AAP wants participation of public on important issues and to bring real democracy. AAP, which made an electrifying debut in the polls, was formally launched on November 26, 2012.It came into existence following differences between Kejriwal and Hazare regarding whether or not to politicise the popular India Against Corruption(IAC) movement that had been demanding a Jan Lokpal Bill since 2011.Hazare preferred that the movement should remain apolitical while Kejriwal felt the failure of the agitation route necessitated a direct political involvement.The AAP has led several protests since its formation.Among these was a campaign against an alleged nexus between government and private corporations relating to price rise for electricity and water in Delhi. Another saw the party demanding justice for victims of sexual harassment and rape, including the introduction of a stronger anti-rape law.Hazare and Kejriwal made it known on September 19, 2012 that their differences regarding a role in politics were irreconcilable.Kejriwal had support from some well-known people involved in the anti-corruption movement, such as Prashant Bhushan and Shanti Bhushan, but was opposed by others such as Kiran Bedi and Santosh Hegde.On October 2, the birth anniversary of Mahatma Gandhi, Kejriwal announced that he was forming a political party which was formally launched on November 26 coinciding with the anniversary of India's adoption of its constitution in 1949.The party name reflects the phrase Aam Aadmi, or "common man", whose interests Kejriwal proposed to represent.A party constitution was adopted on November 24, 2012.The party claims that the common people remain unheard and unseen except when it suits the politicians to consider them. It wants to reverse the way that the accountability of government operates and has taken an interpretation of the Gandhian concept of swaraj as a tenet.Kejriwal said AAP refuses to be guided by ideologies and that they are entering politics to change the system: "We are aam aadmis. If we find our solution in the left we are happy to borrow it from there. If we find our solution in the right, we are happy to borrow it from there," he was quoted as having said.The party produced a separate manifesto for each of the 70 constituencies. The candidates were being screened for potential criminal backgrounds and the party claimed to have selected honest candidates.The AAP's central manifesto had promised to implement the Jan Lokapal Bill within 15 days of coming to power. (PTI)
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The rupee is trading at 61.94/95 versus its close of 62.04/05 on 20 December, tracking slight gains in most Asian sharemarkets.Traders will monitor the domestic sharemarket for cues on the direction of foreign fund flows.Asian currencies trading mixed versus the dollar.The BSE Sensex is up more than 100 points, while the MSCI index of Asian shares ex-Japan rises 0.45 per cent.Traders expect the USD/INR pair to hold in a 61.80 to 62.20 range initially during the session.(Reuters)
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The rupee rose on Friday, mirroring strong stock market gains, ending a week in which it rose 0.1 percent, despite the Federal Reserve beginning its much awaited stimulus tapering.The currency's relatively stable performance even as the U.S. announced tapering showed India's better preparedness to deal with any fallout of such foreign fund outflows.For one, the Reserve Bank of India's two special concessional swap facilities have added $34 billion to forex reserves. At the same time, the government has said it would contain the current account deficit below $60 billion in the current financial year.In fact, the rupee was supported on Friday by expectations of more foreign fund inflows as local stocks jumped 1.8 percent, their most in nearly a month. Fund flows have been strong in December, both into equities and debt, totalling over $3 billion through Thursday."The rupee has gained after opening lower on account of capital flows and Sensex rising as the effect of tapering fade out and risk on sentiment dominates the market," said Anil Kumar Bhansali, vice president at Mecklai Financial.The partially convertible rupee closed at 62.04/05 per dollar compared with Thursday's close of 62.14/15, snapping three days of losses.In the offshore non-deliverable forwards, the one-month contract was at 62.55, while the three-month was at 63.37.(Reuters)
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Elections in all the "fragile five" emerging economies next year, along with the thorny topics of Syria and Iran, will make life tricky for investors trying to steer through political risks in developing markets after a hairy 2013.The withdrawal of US monetary stimulus will set the backdrop for the year, particularly for these big developing economies that depend heavily on foreign investor inflows.Investors in companies or banks or other institutions agreeing contracts in emerging markets can buy insurance policies covering them against specific risks such as political violence, expropriation or contract renegotiations by governments or local private companies. Institutional investors may also use credit default swaps to hedge against the possibility of a government not paying its debts.The size of the political risk insurance market jumped 33 per cent to record highs of $100 billion last year, according to data released earlier this month by the World Bank's political risk arm, which said it expected similar growth this year.Investors fretted about the Middle East and North Africa, expropriation risk in Latin America and general capital constraints, the report from the World Bank's Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) said.The Fed's decision this week to reduce the money-printing that has fuelled demand for risky assets is expected to drag on growth in emerging markets next year, with Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey seen as especially vulnerable to a sudden withdrawal of foreign cash.But with elections due in all of the "fragile five" next year, politicians are likely to spend money to try to keep voters sweet rather than taking a more cautious approach."These are all the countries where markets have wanted to see small twin deficits - elections make that hard to achieve, at least on the budget side," said Charles Robertson, chief economist at Renaissance Capital. "There is lots of potential for markets to be jittery over these countries in 2014."Emerging markets have already suffered from expectations of a tapering of the Fed's bond-buying programme, which has been on the cards for more than six months. Stocks are in the red for the year, heavily underperforming developed markets.But with the reduction in US stimulus likely to be a theme for the whole of 2014, politicians will be wary of voter reaction over jobs or services.The greater wealth that recent rapid growth has brought has pushed popular demands beyond basic human needs, political risk analysts say, a thread that runs from the Arab Spring uprisings of 2011 through to this month's protests in Kiev."The frustration that spilled onto the streets was driven by middle-class people beginning to assert themselves politically," said Christopher Torrens, director of global risk analysis at Control Risks, which sees next year as "particularly challenging".Turkey turned from being an investment darling to an investment pariah in the space of a few weeks this year after the rough treatment of protests over a park in Istanbul, while a corruption probe this week has increased tensions.Brazilian commuters protested about bus fares, and Ukrainians sought closer links to the European Union.South Africa and India hold parliamentary elections in 2014, while Brazil and Turkey have presidential elections. Indonesia has both.South Africa, NigeriaIn Syria, the nearly three-year revolt against President Bashar al-Assad suggests to investors that the Arab Spring is not yet over, particularly as Tunisia and Egypt remain unstable.Political risk brokers say there has been an increase in interest in protection for this region."The (Syrian) conflict ... is spilling over into neighbouring countries, worsening an already-frail security situation," MIGA said in its report.Across Africa, a rash of elections in the past year went off smoothly, notably those in Kenya, where the previous vote was marred by post-election violence in 2008.But elections next year in South Africa - and in Nigeria in 2015 - are worrying investors."Expectations are for policy deterioration in South Africa over the first half and for Nigeria in the second half," Philippe Pontet, director for Africa at political risk firm Eurasia, told a recent conference call.Risk can also come from the handover of power if a long-standing president such as Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe dies."There are countries where, if the one strong man moves on, you end up with a vacuum, that's where you have uncertainty," said Peter Jenkins, co-head of political and credit risk at insurance group Brit.Iran and the West last month made an interim agreement to end the stand-off over Iran's nuclear programme, designed to allow the lifting of sanctions imposed on the Islamic Republic.But for Francois Savary, chief investment officer of Swiss private bank Reyl, that only adds to the risks.Top officials in Sunni Muslim-ruled Saudi Arabia are furious that senior US officials held secret bilateral talks with Shi'ite Iran before the agreement."We do not like what's happening in the Middle East, the reaction of Saudi Arabia to US foreign policy," Savary said."This region remains under the radar."Savary is enthusiastic about emerging markets as a whole for next year, but is avoiding investment in the Middle East, including market star Dubai, because of the potential risks.But the uncertainty can offer opportunities.Opposition parties in India and Brazil, for example, are seen as more business-friendly."(Fragile five) could be the most profitable markets to be in, because of the potential volatility," said Robertson.And Julian Mayo, co-chief investment officer at emerging market fund manager Charlemagne Capital, welcomed recent steps to quicken the pace of market reform in China."In China, political risk has clearly fallen. In Brazil and India, things are better than six months ago - political risk is if anything going down."(Reuters)
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