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Spare a thought for the expectations from Narendra Modi as the next Prime Minister of India. The man on the street wants him to be the breath of fresh air that the UPA II wasn’t. The industry wants him to be decisive that Manmohan Singh wasn’t. Stock market wants him to allow free flow of foreign investment that slowdown didn’t. Small traders want him to reverse FDI in retail while MNCs want him to stabilise the policy flip-flop. And so on… However unreasonable they may be, the new PM will surely have to go through this trial by fire. But the big difference that a Modi government can make is also what made Gujarat stand out from among the states in modern India. Modi’s rule in Gujarat that coincidentally overlapped with UPA’s 10 year rule over India was spectacular neither because of policies, nor the intention. It was because of the execution—or, the lack of it in the case of UPA. Even though the BJP manifesto for Lok Sabha 2014 mentions no specific roadmap to revive the economy, Gujarat’s own economic model has enough cues about the likely economic policies. A Modi government at the Centre will sorely disappoint the proponents of open and free markets. Instead, expect him to invoke economic nationalism and nationalistic economic agenda. After all, Modi’s Gujarat is also a proponent of the Nehruvian model of self-dependence and self-reliance that the Indian National Congress dumped so dismissively more than 25 years ago. Hence, a Modi-led NDA will be ‘Swadeshi’ of the kind China stands for. If Modi’s talk in the run-up to the elections is anything to go by, he will foster nationalism of the “Aapno Gujarat” kind that only Gujaratis and Amdavadis can vouch for. There are several pockets where this is ripe for exploitation. For instance, India’s defence forces’ self esteem is at an all time low with repeated and brutal attacks on the border. Their battle preparedness suffers from massive delays in procurement of modern equipment. And the dream of indigenous defence production continues to remain—a dream. If former BJP prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee invoked nationalism and India’s right to think and act independently rather explosively with the nuclear tests, expect Modi to thump his (figuratively speaking) “56-inch chest” with achievements in space technology. At least initially, until other efforts begin to bear fruit. Space technology has always been that frontier of science where nation-states have vied for superiority. India already has a traditional advantage of having pursued its ambitions relentlessly. An NDA regime will surely channel more resources into national science & technology and space research laboratories. Next, expect Modi to stir up national pride through big-bang infrastructure projects: high speed railway and road corridors; inter-linking of major rivers; nationwide hi-speed broadband networks. His key focus in infrastructure will be on making India power surplus. It’s an achievement that he often boasts about Gujarat. Denouncing things ‘Indian’ is well ingrained in several of us. Its origin is rooted in over 200 years of British rule when those who wanted to endear themselves to the erstwhile rulers of India looked down upon the rest of the Indians, Indian ethnic wear, food, even culture. And it carried on down the generations…decades after the British left. Many Indians consider the expression of their dislike in public inversely proportional to what they consider a superior status in society. I have friends who smirk at the thought of voting. They consider themselves ‘international citizens’. It’s below their dignity to vote in Indian elections. They vehemently express their dislike about cows on the roads but won’t think twice before availing the subsidised LPG gas connection. Modi’s policies will be a blow to that ideology. At the heart of Nehruvian 5-year plans was PSU-led manufacturing with the objective of achieving self reliance. Gujarat has proved how to turn around and run successful PSUs. Today, at least 5 Gujarat PSUs are among the world’s 500 largest corporations: Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals, Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation, Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers Company, Gujarat Alkalies & Chemicals Limited and Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation. Expect this model to be replicated at the Centre. So, take heart from this Air India, BSNL, Coal India and others! You will not be sold out. Instead, PSU leaders can expect a free hand at running their corporations, greater infusion of funds into deserving PSUs and significant backing from the Centre. The heavy industries ministry will be key in the Modi portfolio. A corollary to self-dependence and self-reliance will be an unprecedented push to indigenous defence production for which several large corporate houses such as the Tata group, the Godrej group and the Mahindra group had begun setting up manufacturing facilities 5 years ago. Meanwhile, a senior colleague recently picked up a theory doing the rounds. That the biggest casualty of a Modi-led NDA regime will be social sector reforms populated by Congress-led UPA governments as MGNREGA, food-for-all, education-for-all, health-for-all---and now insurance-for-all. That these populist schemes may get subsumed in the great infrastructure push is a real threat. But if Modi has to watch out for a Congress rebound on the back of these schemes, he should rather not tamper with the social sector.rajeevdubey@gmail.com@rajeevdubey
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As of 2012, humans and machines generated almost 2.5 quintillion bytes of data every day. For every byte of structured data that is being properly mined, there are 4 bytes more of unstructured data. According to IBM, of all the digital data in the world today, almost 90 per cent was generated in the last two years alone. There is close to 3 zettabytes (around 3 billion TB) of data in the world today, and this is throwing up unprecedented challenges for organisations trying to make sense of it. So much so, that an entire industry is developing around ‘Big Data’. On the sidelines of the Nasscom BPO Summit 2012 in Gurgaon, BW|Businessworld and the National Association of Software and Services Companies (Nasscom) organised a roundtable to discuss the new ecosystem around Big Data. The panelists included Som Mittal, president, Nasscom; Mohit Thukral, senior vice-president, Genpact; Roopa Kudva, CEO and MD, Crisil; and Sundar Ramaswamy, CEO, AbsoluteData. Excerpts from the roundtable:Rajeev Dubey: The best explanation I have heard about Big Data is that when GBs become ZBs — leapfrogging TBs and PBs (petabytes) — you are talking ‘Big Data’. But the rate at which it is being generated, this could be a dated definition faster than we think. Also, there is a lot more to Big Data than just the data itself, such as the 4 Vs — volume, velocity, variety and variability. So, can we have Som Mittal to start off with whether what we are talking about Big Data is completely new or is it an amalgam of many things?Som Mittal: All of what you said. In the early 1990s, the PC was 40 MB. What you were computing was not really data. All that has changed (with) 10 GB pen drives today. And what has enabled this change is the cloud. The cost of storage has become very low, (and) that is an opportunity for Indian companies...because of something new. Earlier, (a) data was not there, (b) when data was there, there was no technology to mine it, (c) when both options were available, there were no resources, and (d) it wasn’t affordable. All the four parameters are now coming together. It was a natural extension for us to leverage this. (Our customers are now) saying that you handled our supply chain, our transactional process and customer interaction; you have gathered some data, now what more can you do for us? That’s the driver.Rajeev: Mohit, so is it old wine in a new bottle, or is Big Data really different from the data centre and analytics combination that has always existed?Mohit Thukral: It is new. The magnitude of data is a lot. We have over 1 trillion devices today, from 300 million devices over eight years. Firms in India and around the world see so many transactions going through the system. What you do with these transactions is going to be the key. Today, a lot of firms don’t do market research; they use social media network and tools to do market research, which never happened five years ago. As more and more of us get on to more mobile devices, more data will flow, and you will require more computing. So, I think, we are at the cusp of a change.Rajeev: Roopa, how real is it, especially from the point of view of the 4 Vs?Roopa Kudva: It’s not that we are talking about stuff that’s already being done, (and) which we are seeking to do more efficiently with more value addition. This is the first time this is going to happen. Traditionally, companies, government and enterprises of all kinds always captured data and the focus was internal. Like, to improve efficiency, for forecasting in engineering firms, etc. Why this is transformational and new is because for the first time, it is about understanding the customer better and figuring out new opportunities to grow. The other new element is the variety of sources from which the data is being captured — internal sources, security cameras, other devices and tweets — diverse and numerous. Capturing data is new, quantum of data is new and, more importantly, what you are seeking to use this data for, is new. Rajeev: Sundar, what’s the big challenge in Big Data? Is it handling the data itself, or making sense of it?Sundar Ramaswamy: For me the Big Data challenge is taken away with technology trying to capture that data pretty well. The bigger challenge is when you look at the variety of data and how you can get those sources together to make a consistent meaning in a compressed manner; to be able to assimilate different types of data to make sense out of it. It is going to be unstructured, so you are looking into the quality of data. The bigger challenge is how you overlay the analytics over it (technology) to make a consistent, actionable, real-time meaning for people to react to.Rajeev: There is a need for faster processes, storage and retrieving. Can computing, and the other areas around it, keep pace with Big Data?Som: I don’t think today we have enough computing power. (But since) cloud is enabling sharing of both computing resources as well as the storage sources, it is not going to be a constraint.Mohit: There is so much data that you can keep juggling and computing it. But, at the end, companies will have to get smarter to pull out what (they) are looking for.Sundar: Many companies are making investments in technology and are asking consultants about what they should do with all of this. I really don’t know how I am going to make a difference to getting the analytics out to make meaningful decisions. Clients would like non-human intervention in algorithms to go. They want to create a Gen-I algorithm, which has human intervention but the improvements of those algorithms should be built into the technology we have overlaid, until there is a disruptive need for human intervention on those models. We need people with a background in computer science and psychology to come back to analytics and help this field to grow. The second piece is IP (intellectual property). People who can create IP in this field will differentiate the winners from the losers.Roopa: Where technology and Big Data (come together), it is called ‘visualisation’, that is, visually depicting what you see from the data. Not just simple crafts, charts, but heat maps. However, the question of what to look for in the heap of data needs to be addressed.Rajeev: How much of the unstructured data are we trying to make sense of? How much of it is being captured and how much is going waste?Mohit: A lot of the data today doesn’t get captured. There will be a lot of unstructured data available which is critical and you need to pull out the relevant information, and make it more adaptable to your business (and) your customers. How to improve efficiency in a business? How to increase your market share? What customers are saying about your company, product or services? Social networks, where people are blogging or tweeting about you, are unstructured data because they are all over the place.Sundar: To answer your question straight, we haven’t done enough. Having said that, I think there is a lot of investment being made in trying to make that happen. People will need to look at our traditional algorithms and re-engineer them. To give you an example, if we did market mix models right now, we would never have considered social media as an input. Now people have to rethink ways of doing it. Is it moving at the right speed, ‘No’.Som: There is a big distinction between all of us in our industry. We have been working for ‘clients’. Every time someone uses the term ‘customers’ we are not talking about our customer. When we are talking about Big Data, (it) actually (belongs to) our client’s customers. The domain is no longer a technology or an expertise domain; it’s understanding our customers’ business so that we can advise them on the data being generated.Rajeev: How is the business process outsourcing (BPO) industry trying to leverage Big Data and where has it been more successful than elsewhere?Mohit: The business process management (BPM) industry is pretty ahead in the game. The two main users of data are financial services and retail. Because they are B2C (business-to-consumer) businesses and more consumer-oriented, we have built a scalable business. We have mathematicians, statisticians, econometricians, etc, and built a Big Data or analytics business. The next evolution for firms in the business analytics area is going to be to understand the end customer, their business needs and domains. You have to look at how you build products that are used by your customers and then how do you service those products.Roopa: The estimate is that the (global industry) size was $5.3 billion in 2011, and by 2015 it will be $25 billion. That’s a 46 per cent CAGR (compound annual growth rate). For India, that number will go from $200 million to about $1 billion. The three sectors that will account for the bulk of this are financial services, telecom and retail. But, for India, we are saying that in this path from $200 million to $1 billion, in the first year (2012) the mix is going to be 84 per cent technology and 16 per cent analytics, but five years down, analytics will be 30 per cent. Initially, you need to invest to set up the data architecture, technology, the backbone, the hardware and in designing the whole system.Sundar: The global stage is on an equal footing. Nobody’s really cramped the court there. Given our talent, our experience to really take a lead in shaping how Big Data gets played out, we have the right kind of investment and scale to run those experiments, to leapfrog, create our IP and lead the charge. That is the opportunity I would exhort India as a service industry to do.Roopa: With one nuance though…we’re now talking about cutting-edge IT stuff in terms of analytics and I believe that initially the Indian BPO industry will also have to learn to leverage global talent for this in a way it hasn’t done before. It would not be unusual to see Indian firms putting together a team of 15-20 people of PhD source from all over the world, from the US, eastern Europe, India. That’s good for the Indian BPO industry because it’s all about the shift from BPO to BPM.Rajeev: What’s the weakest link in the Indian Big Data ecosystem and abroad, and why is that lagging?Sundar: One, is talent. While we say we have a great mathematical logical structure in our education system, there’s a long way to go to make them analytics-ready. Second, is changing our own mindset about upfront investment and IP, and leverage top talent to be able to do it. If we miss that boat, we will lag.Mohit: Why you would need global teams to work on this to create cutting-edge changes is because a lot of the domains in those industries lie outside the country.Som: We’re talking about a new class of people being hired. The fact is that we are catching this opportunity early, and trying to carve it out later. Rajeev: What is triggering the wave of M&As in the industry? Is it the innovation or lack thereof?Som: The main reason for M&As is (that) you cannot build domain expertise through on-boarding and training in classrooms; it’s such a slow process. You need to do acquisitions so you get domain experts. A majority of acquisitions — while there are some that may have been done for revenue accretion — are to get people with knowledge.Mohit: One is to acquire expertise. The M&As in this space are niche firms, not massive players like IBM. These are $20-30-40-million firms and you are just plugging them into your larger pool for speed to market.Rajeev: What’s going right for Big Data is that regulators in financial services, healthcare and telecom are backing it. So, what’s in it for the regulators?Mohit: Regulators want more information to share, so they want companies to be more transparent. Companies are getting swarmed with regulators asking for more and more information. Specifically in the US financial services today. Companies will have to get smarter to make data available, else costs are going (to go) up. Compliance costs have gone up 15-20 per cent.Rajeev: Coming back to the $200-million-to-$1-billion opportunity, where do we stand in exploiting this?Roopa: We’re early in the game. It’s new for everybody. We are there, which is good; understanding that there’s an opportunity and (that there are) initial investments. Many new firms have come up, that is testimony to the fact that India is moving to capitalise on this opportunity.Rajeev: But, if we look at it right now, the Big Data work here is mostly with the captives?Roopa: I would not agree. You see a nice mix of captives and third-party firms. It’s gone beyond an arbitrage. It’s about knowledge, capability, skills. It will continue to be a mix of in-house as well as sourcing from third parties. (This story was published in Businessworld Issue Dated 25-03-2013)
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Finance minister P Chidambaram’s infectious optimism while addressing an India investment roadshow in Hong Kong, is obviously borne out of the discussions he has with his Cabinet colleagues, and the prime minister. But despite the brave front put up by him, the world does not quite see the Indian economy the way the finance minister does, or the way the United Progressive Alliance sees it. Within hours of the FM’s meeting with 200-odd investors at the Citi-hosted event, the International Monetary Fund lowered India’s 2013 GDP growth projection from 6 per cent to 5.9 per cent in its update on the World Economic Outlook. The reasons are obvious. Except for a tantalising peek into a ‘dream’ Budget 2013 (‘there will be no tax shocks’), there is little that the FM said that is not already known: that the insurance and pension regulations will be placed before the Parliament in the Budget session (they better be, they have been delayed far too long); that the GST will not be possible in 2013, except that he can try passing the legislation by December; that the tax regime will be stable (Chidambaram said that right after he became the FM), etc. The irony is that many of the legislative promises the FM made either hinge on substantial support from the opposition parties to pass through both the houses of Parliament or are dependent on the UPA coming back to power for the third time in a row. Neither of those is guaranteed. Meanwhile, Chidambaram’s cry that unstable coalitions are the biggest threat to future reforms implicitly exhorts the voters that if you wish to see more of this, vote us back to power — with a majority. He is hoping that the general voter will see the big picture: if there are reforms, there will be growth, growth leads to prosperity and, perhaps, better standards of living. But before they tread to the polling stations, the voters will also keep in mind the back-breaking inflation, a string of corruption cases and sleepy governance for much of the first half of UPA II. Meanwhile, the poor will evaluate the benefits of MGNREGA and direct cash subsidy, education-for-all, food-for-all and medicine-for-all. It will be a fight to the finish.(This story was published in Businessworld Issue Dated 04-02-2013)
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The war of letters, words, arbitration and lawsuits between the oil ministry (and its associate the directorate general of hydrocarbons) and Reliance Industries over the D6 block in the Krishna Godavari basin oil and gas fields has cost the nation dearly.The fields that were projected to deliver up to 80 million metric standard cubic metres per day (mmscmd) of gas by 2012 are delivering sub-30 mmscmd. The productivity of the wells is worsening. And most downstream sectors are suffering. Given that the fertiliser industry is the top priority for gas allocation, at least 8,000 MW of capacity set up in anticipation of additional gas is either lying idle or is producing way below rated capacity. This has a ripple effect on investors and the banking system that has lent money to projects which now seem unviable. At the centre of the dispute is Reliance Industries’ higher capital expenditure on D1 and D3 fields from $2.39 billion to $8.8 billion which it submitted to the government for approval. The government raised objections and ordered an audit by the CAG. RIL denied the auditors access to the books of accounts and the SAP system on the grounds that the auditors were conducting a “performance audit” — which can question the technologies and processes deployed in deep sea fields —despite the CAG not being a technical authority. Of late, the two sides seem to be coming to an agreement on their respective rights as per the production-sharing contract. And both sides are claiming victory (RIL now says its objection was only to the performance audit while the oil ministry has said it was never interested in a performance audit). At the heart of it all, this is a classic battle between a tenant and a landlord.The landlord is objecting to the tenant making large-scale changes in the house he was given to live in. The government has a legitimate right to inspect and question the books since capex is the basis of the future recovery of the investment by RIL. Hence, it is critical that the two sides set boundaries beyond which they must not operate.(This story was published in Businessworld Issue Dated 05-11-2012)
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Our nation’s infrastructure is like our bureaucracy. Whichever way you look at it, almost nothing seems right. Both have been flogged endlessly for their ineptness. But this special package, put together to examine the state of infrastructure on India’s 66th Independence Day, is not just about what is wrong with our infrastructure; but as much about what is right. There is much to learn from those who have demonstrated that problems of infrastructure are surmountable.Nations around the world (including the US) are grappling with the growing demands on their creaking infrastructure. At the heart of capitalism, which drives the global economy, is the concept of ‘consumption’. The fortunes of global economy studiously follow the rise and fall in consumption. When population rises and its well-being improves, consumption grows. It boosts trade — within regions, between regions, between countries and between continents. The rise in trade has to be backed by commensurate development of infrastructure. It needs power to produce goods, roads and railways to carry them to ports and airports, ships and aircraft to carry them across continents. It needs humans, who enable both production and consumption, to be housed and it needs their commute to be facilitated.According to the McKinsey Urban World Report released in June 2012, a billion people will be added to the global “consuming class” by 2025; of this, 600 million will be added in the 440-odd cities in emerging markets, including Shanghai, Mumbai, Sao Paulo and Lagos. About $23 trillion, or 47 per cent of global growth between 2012 and 2025 will be contributed by these cites. “We are observing the most significant shift in the earth’s economic center of gravity in history,” says the report. This is fuelling an unprecedented demand for infrastructure across the world. When this demand is not met, trade suffers — so do economies. India is in the midst of a consumption boom, triggering one of the world’s fastest GDP growth rates, but our infrastructure certainly is not one of the enablers. Yet, occasional examples from this sea of gloom and doom in India’s infrastructure hold lessons for those that seem to be resigned to blaming ‘policy paralysis’ as their excuse for inaction.Take the case of power, an industry where defunct and dying projects are a reality: some because of shortage of fuel supplies, some due to poorly conceived fuel policies and some due to their inability to achieve financial closure. But in a country where power plants manage a plant load factor or PLF (the average capacity of production round the year) of a mere 76 per cent (eight states have an average PLF of under 70 per cent), Reliance Infrastructure’s Dahanu thermal plant in northern Maharashtra has consistently reported an eye-popping PLF of over 100 per cent since 2007-08 (104.18 per cent in 2011-12). What’s the secret? While other plants reel under the shortfall in supply of domestic coal from Coal India,Dahanu’s 2x250 MW units use an 80:20 blend of domestic and imported coal to keep the turbines running. It also deploys stringent yard management procedures for optimum stacking of coal and compaction. Close on the heels of Dahanu is the CESC-owned Budge Budge thermal power station in West Bengal which has also reported a PLF of over 100 per cent, though not as consistently. The duo’s performance, it seems, is infectious: in fiscal 2011-12, nine stations reported a PLF of over 100 per cent. Generation apart, there are gems in power transmission and distribution as well.In roads, the ambitious Golden Quadrilateral project remains incomplete years after work began. Any Delhiite will vouch for the fact that the Delhi-Chandigarh and Delhi-Jaipur National Highways have been under construction for more than a decade and a half. In the past, there have been some successes in widening existing highways into expressways such as the Mumbai-Pune highway or the Mumbai-Vadodara highway. However, among greenfield projects, there is none like the 165-km Yamuna Expressway between Greater Noida and Agra that opened on August 9. Built by Jaypee Infratech at a cost of Rs 12,000 crore, it goes to show why the government must focus on building greenfield highways across the country to ease the burden on existing highways before embarking on expanding them to four- and six-lane projects. Besides, it’s a live example of a BOOT (build-own-operate-transfer) highway where private interest was sweetened by throwing in land for seven new cities to be built along the highway.This special issue is led by the examples that showcase ways to tackle the biggest problem facing town planners: how to revitalise dying cities. Read about how Ahmedabad, Pimpri-Chinchwad, Hyderabad and Delhi battled the odds for urban renewal. And how they are inspiring cities such as Patna and Bangalore to kickstart their own re-engineering missions.If ever India has to reap the fruits of consumption sprouting from its demographic dividend, it must overcome the infrastructure deficit. What we have here are barely the starters from the vast infrastructure menu. For the main course, read on. (This story was published in Businessworld Issue Dated 20-08-2012)
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April 2008. The government of Gambela state in Ethiopia had invited Sai Ramakrishna Karuturi to discuss his offer to lease 100,000 hectare for farming. Karuturi's expectations of a deal going through were so low that he sent his public relations officer Ashok Sharma and some lawyers for the meeting. The managing director of the world's largest rose exporter, the Rs 645-crore Karuturi Global (KGL), had better things to do with his time than take a 700-km ride from Ethiopia's capital Addis Ababa for a deal that seemed unlikely to materialise.But his father, Karuturi Surya Rao, promoter of a Bangalore-based cable maker, and also chairman of Karuturi Global, offered to join the troupe. Though the deal seemed unlikely, Karuturi senior was worried about his son's soaring ambitions and wanted to make sure that no undue risks were being taken.As it turned out, Karuturi was both right — and wrong. The state would not offer 100,000 hectare (ha). Instead, it wanted him to take 300,000 ha (or 741,000 acre, an area twice the size of the National Capital Territory of Delhi) on a 99-year lease at 20 birr (about $1.5) per ha per annum. HOME ALONE: An empty village of pastoralists at Gambela farm(BW Pic By Rajeev Dubey) Karuturi senior wanted nothing to do with the deal. The team was walking out when Ram called for an update. "Sign it right now," he shouted over the phone from Addis Ababa when he heard the terms. "I want it signed and sealed before they change their mind." Karuturi senior could hardly believe what was going on. "What's the point of taking land that you cannot walk (across)?" he asked his son on the phone."I can't walk it, but I can fly over it, dad," Karuturi replied nonchalantly, "This is my company. Let me handle it." There was a deafening silence at the other end of the phone. Even as the agreement to make Sai Ramakrishna Karuturi the biggest land-holding Indian on Earth was being signed, Karuturi senior walked out in protest and sat in the car, fretting over the risk.The 25,274 sq. km Gambela bordering South Sudan is among the poorer states of Ethiopia. A majority of its 300,000 populace is pastoral. Gambela and other states have since leased out land to others, including India's Shapoorji Pallonji & Co. (50,000 ha) to grow biofuel, and Spentex Industries (25,000 ha) to grow cotton. To understand what prompted Gambela to make Karuturi an offer he could not refuse (another 12,000 ha was leased to KGL at Bako, near Addis Ababa), swing across 2,400 km to this animated discussion in Nairobi, Kenya.A Chicken And Egg SituationApril 2012: John M.N. Mututho is livid. "Mr Minister, this time you better take this seriously," he says. Tension hangs in the air in the 9th floor boardroom overlooking the Kenyan Parliament in Nairobi. It is from there that Mututho draws his powers to admonish the farm minister. He is the chairman of the Parliament-appointed Agriculture, Livestock and Cooperatives Committee. Mututho monitors the agriculture ministry's budget proposal for self-sufficiency in foodgrain. "Honourable minister, we feel really heavy at heart. We really don't like it," says Mututho, on the ministry's inability to achieve food security. The discussion that follows could well have been a Cabinet discourse in the Nehruvian-era when India was food-scarce. But this is the state of granaries in many African nations. In 2011, Africa imported food worth $50 billion, most of which came as aid from the US and Europe. "We have a very nasty situation. We import everything except air," Mututho tells BW just after the panel meeting. For the first time, Kenya is inviting foreigners for large-scale corporate farming. Land will be free of lease for 25 years. Kenya is facilitating deals by consolidating 131 agriculture laws into just four. There will be no restriction on exports either (but local prices are higher than international prices; farmers will find it lucrative to sell domestically).Kenya joins Tanzania, Mozambique, Senegal and Sierra Leone, in offering vast tracts to feed their growing populations. NGOs, human rights groups and activists call it corporate colonialism and land grab, and are mounting pressure to desist. "There is opposition from west Africa... that we not give foreigners any more land. For Kenya, that does not stand," says Mututho.break-page-breakBut it all began in Ethiopia which was a symbol of starvation in the 1980s. The $32-billion Ethiopian economy — about half the size of Reliance Industries — has the fastest-growing African GDP at 10 per cent. Around 75 million of its 120 million ha is arable. But only 15 million ha is cultivated. In 2003, Ethiopia set aside 3 million ha for commercial farming. Of that, 1 million ha has been leased, inviting the wrath of activists protesting natives' displacement. "No debate has taken place. In a country where you have 13 million people dependent on food aid, (if) you unleash this development model where human development and consensus is being ignored, the fallout is huge," says Anuradha Mittal, executive director of California-based policy research body, Oakland Institute. "They are trying to take potshots at non-European, non-American investors. It is almost racist," counters Karuturi.Acres Up To The HorizonThe elevated but non-asphalt road stretches 72 km from one end of the KGL farm to the other. It's the highway to South Sudan, 100 km away. A white flag-waving party of 20 Sudanese refugees passes by. Acres of cultivable land meet the horizon as big bulldozers, earth movers and dumpers work round the clock to clear shrubs, anthills and trees; 65,000 ha have been cleared. The rest will be done by March, promises Karuturi during one of the gut-churning rides.The Gambela project has enormous implications for him. Success here could open the floodgates for similar deals in other African countries. Failure could consign him to obscurity, besides attracting the ire of investors and financial institutions. As the sowing season approaches, visits to each of the sites are mandatory, followed by marathon problem-solving sessions at the main camp in Ilea that start post-dusk and go on till midnight, over loads of tea, soft drinks and beer.Planning takes up most of the time. The last time he had a crop in the fields, Karuturi grossly underestimated nature's influence on his farm that lies between the Baro and Alwero rivers. Floods consumed 60,000 tonne of maize sown on 12,000 ha. It was a $15 million write-off. "We were caught napping. Later, when I spoke to villagers, they showed me (water) marking on trees. It is so simple. It was there. I felt like an idiot," says Karuturi. When he told the flood woes to rose buyers in the Netherlands, they had a ready answer: build dykes. The Dutch have mastered of it. Nearly 25 per cent of the Netherlands is below the sea level and 21 per cent of the population lives below sea level. Another 50 per cent land is barely 1 metre above the sea. ...WHAT WORKS FOR HIM The world's largest exporter of cut roses, generates 40 per cent gross margin from rose business The Gambela farm between two rivers, Baro and Alwero, has high (6 per cent) organic matter in soil 65,000 ha of 1,00,000 ha have already been cleared for farming, rest by the end of 2013 Stable government in Ethiopia (ruling since 1991) ensures support to projects awarded by current regime ...WHAT DOES NOT No experience in largescale farming. Lost a maize crop due to poor anticipation of the power of nature Gambela farm needs $380 million of investment for two crops a year; Karuturi has invested only $128 million till date Still learning to use modern farming equipment; training workers on new equipment Farm is still to be secured from wildlife from the Gambela National Park,especially deer ...WHERE THE OPPORTUNITY LIES Africa is a net importer of food and requires vast tracts of land to be cultivated to feed population Food prices in Africa are 200-300 per cent higher than global prices, ensuring high margins Tanzania, Mozambique, Senegal, Kenya and Sierra Leone are opening up for large-scale farming ...WHAT COULD TRIP HIM Inability to arrange funds or bring in agripreneurs for revenue share Anti-land grabbing activists and human rights bodies are raising the pitch against scale farming Ethiopia may decide to cap land holdings to 100,000 ha under political, NGO pressure Unexpected rains, floods or natural disasters could destroy crop If Karuturi is nervous, he hides it behind the bravado. "I'm not boasting. It's a wild west project," says the 6-foot-tall farmer. "It has never been done before." He expects to earn $500-700 million annually from this project when it is fully commissioned in three years. That's six times the revenues KGL generates from rose exports. The $380 million investment ($128 million has been invested so far) is 12 times KGL's FY11 net profit.But his dreams are not prisoners of scarcity. "In a few years (we will) develop at least 1 million ha (2.47 million acre) of farmland in Africa and produce 8-10 million tonne food," says Karuturi. What he does not say is, that could make his the world's biggest farming company. "Size mein kya rakha hai (why go after size)? We want to be the best." Kazakhstan's Ivolga-Holding and Argentina's El Tejar are the biggest with 600,000 ha (1.5 million acre) each. Karuturi believes at 1 million ha, he would be among the top 5 producers of maize, rice, palm oil, sugar and sesame.He says exploratory talks are on with Tanzania, Mozambique, Senegal and Sierra Leone. "We have sent reconnaissance teams. We are looking at these four and DRC (Democratic Republic of Congo) as a funnel." Discussions are at an advanced stage in Tanzania and Mozambique. "In Senegal, we have made an exploratory probe and in Sierra Leone we have made initial contacts," says Karuturi.Interestingly, the million ha dream cannot be realised by KGL all by itself. It does not have the $5 billion it will need. To realise the dream, KGL will have to morph into a farm management firm. For instance, the Gambela land itself will need $1.2 billion in investment — a tall order for the $115-million firm. "I want to be a farm-enabler. We want to build something like an agri SEZ. (We will) develop land suitable for farming, with irrigation, mechanisation, storage, post-harvest transportation and bring in agri entrepreneurs for a revenue share." His proposal to convert millions of ha of fallow land into cultivable land through agri SEZs is pending with the Ethiopian government.The model is evolving, but for now Karuturi has brought in a farmer from Punjab, a Uruguayan and an Australian firm in a 30:35:35 model for 5,000 ha parcels each. While the agripreneur and KGL would share 35 per cent each of the produce, 30 per cent would be the cost of sowing, equipment, maintenance and land lease.Up Against The Real WorldFarming at this scale throws up problems of equal magnitude. The region was not introduced to electricity. KGL had to import 30 gensets from India to power the farm, even supply to nearby village Ilea for free. Karuturi imported Indian equipment — earth movers from BEML, tractors from TAFE, trucks from Tata and Scorpio pick-ups from Mahindra. Only to realise he made the wrong choice. Frequent breakdowns and lack of support made him change his mind. The last straw, he says, was when BEML told him to wait three months to supply spares, after receiving payments. He now buys Toyota Land Cruisers to traverse the dirt roads. And the monstrous 500 HP tractors from John Deere and Case New Holland — almost 50 of them at $1 million each — to take over from the 55 HP TAFE tractors. The John Deere tractors, he says, cover 50 ha a day, as against TAFE's 4-6 ha.break-page-breakIt's time for site visits. Two 1.7 km-long airstrips are to be readied at two ends of the farm for the two planes arriving in November to spray insecticides, fertilisers, etc. The Chinese, when they were searching for oil, left one airstrip. It can do with recarpeting. Work on the second one is up to Karuturi's satisfaction. But the 5,000 ha rice farm at Jikao is not. The previous evening, Karuturi pitted the progress of the Uruguayans manning the site against the American representatives manning the maize site. The Uruguayans lost badly. The site is lagging. Karuturi is anxious. About 1.5 km away, he notices only three of the five 500 HP tractors emitting exhaust smoke. "Why are only three of them ploughing, Jagdeesh?" he asks the farm in-charge. "They might have stopped for greasing or cleaning filters," replies Jagdeesh. These are million-dollar properties. They should work 24x7 to eke out maximum productivity.As the Land Cruiser closes in, Karuturi's instinct proves right. One tractor is stationary. Jagdeesh jumps out even before the car stops. "He was cleaning the filter, sir," he says. Karuturi bursts out, "Your tractors will function for 100 years, but I won't be there for 100 years." Dissatisfied, he hops on to the driver's seat of a TAFE tractor himself, apparently to time the distance from one end to the other. By the time he finishes, his white shirt is covered in soot patches. Before proceeding, he turns to Jagdeesh: "I want crops. I want production. Come to the AGM and see how investors roast me." By the next afternoon, executive director Birinder Singh is dictating marching orders at the Addis Ababa office. Jagdeesh is transferred from Jikao.A Love-Hate RelationshipInvestors have been vicious since KGL's first crop — maize — in Gambela was destroyed in August 2011, a month before it was to be harvested. The stock has fallen nearly 60 per cent since then and has languished between Rs 4 -6 for the past eight months ( 31 May: Rs 4.8). At its peak, the Rs 10 share (before it split into 10 shares of Re 1 each on 4 April 2008) closed at Rs 430.85 on 8 January 2008. "A lot of growth was expected. It has not happened," says Rohit Inamdar, senior vice-president, ICRA Equity. "It is the floods. This will be a blip on the horizon," says Karuturi. "In October, I give you a harvest; it is going to be back to where it was." OTHER BIGGIES FARMING PASSION: Gustavo Grobocopatel is among the world's largest farmers (Reuters) Among conglomerates, Kazakhstan's Ivolga-Holding and Argentina's El Tejar manage 600,000 ha (1.48 million acre) each. Ivolga operates in Kazakhstan and Russia and El Tejar in Argentina, Uruguay, Brazil and Bolivia. As an individual, Argentina's Gustavo Grobocopatel's firm Los Gobo manages 300,000 ha. With most of its land devoted to wheat, Ivolga has emerged as one of the biggest wheat-producing firms in the world. El Tejar, on the other hand, is the world's biggest grain producer, but it also raises cattle for meat production. Los Gobo grows soybeans, corn, wheat and sugar in Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay. Increasingly, large agri companies are listing on stock exchanges. Argentina's Adecoagro, Los Gobo came out with an IPO in Brazil in 2011. Now, El Tejar has declared it will tap the stock market in 2012. "There were two setbacks: an entire crop got washed out; expansion has suffered since Axis Bank did not disburse $180 million... the company could not meet a condition that the National Bank of Ethiopia should approve repatriation of funds," adds Narendra Dokania, senior analyst at ICRA. "It was a syndication. It lapsed. We didn't seek re-approval," says Karuturi. Axis Bank declined comment. "The major challenge is towards fund-raising," says Inamdar. Developing 100,000 ha needs an investment of $380 million over three years. KGL has invested $128 million. Where will the rest come from? "It will be debt, over three years. We have got financial closure for $50 million from the Indian Overseas Bank," says Karuturi.Water And DykesThe rains are due in June and Karuturi knows his future is at stake. Going by the Dutch advice, KGL has been building 78.9 km of 15-metre-high, 15-metre-wide dykes along the farm. But heavy machine operators are in short supply. Karuturi shouts at his cook in his native tongue. "I was telling him I have brought you here at three times your salary. Why can't you double up as an operator?" he explains. Machine operators building the dyke spotted a pride of lions the previous evening. Perhaps, they had strayed from the Gambela National Park, looking for water on the dry bed of Alwero. Karuturi is at the spot at 8.30 am. Not for the lions, but because of the dry bed. He rubs his eyes in disbelief. "I can't believe this is dry," he says."I have asked my people to build a dyke and divert the Alwero outside of our land," he says.But what happens when rain water drains from higher areas (423 metre above sea level) to lower areas? It will destroy the crop. The project's vice-president gets the flak over the phone for not anticipating this. Karuturi sits on a plough and begins calculating the pumping capacity to ease water over dykes. The calculation goes all wrong, causing him anxiety. "Who can build this level of capacity? This kind of water goes through Sardar Sarovar," he mutters. To his amusement, he finds he had over-calculated. A gasp and a sigh later, he shoots off instructions with details of locations. The pumps must be installed by the time he is back the next fortnight.In the main camp, it's problem-solving time, just seven days short of sowing time, the first crop of the season. Also the first since floods. Anxiety is high. Chief representative of Farmers' National Corporation, the US firm contracted to farm, is upfront: "My big worries: Floods, deer, weeds and bugs." KGL has imported chemicals to tackle weeds and bugs. Dykes should save the crop from floods. But deer? There are thousands of them. Protests from environmentalists forced the government to create a 10,000 ha deer corridor dissecting the farm for a million-strong migration of white-eared kob from Gambela National Park to Baro. A 30-km solar electric fence is being imported to keep the deer out.break-page-breakWill It, Won't It?It's uncertain whether KGL will get the remaining 200,000 ha from Ethiopia. According to the Land Rent Contractual Agreement signed between KGL's 100 per cent arm Karuturi Agro Products and Ethiopia's agriculture ministry on 5 November 2010, KGL was handed over 100,000 ha with the promise of the rest on completion of farming on the first parcel within two years. But pressure mounted from anti-land grab activists and the West. So Ethiopia has set up Agricultural Investment Support Directorate to monitor land allotment. Its chief Essayas Kebede has said land allotment to KGL will be capped at 100,000 ha. Any cap on land, however, will be a setback for KGL's ambition. "We are lobbying the international community to see if we can stop the land grab by KGL, Ruchi Soya and others," says Nyikaw Ochalla of Anywaa Survival Organisation, which represents the 100,000-strong Anywaa tribe of Gambela. In a letter to Karuturi (November 2011), Human Rights Watch highlighted "Villagisation and Rights Abuses in the Gambela region". It asked: "There is evidence that Anuaks used and occupied land that is part of KGL's lease area. What process has KGL undertaken to ensure appropriate compensation, as per Ethiopian law and international best practices?"Karuturi responded: "Anuaks use and occupy land within KGL's lease area without any disturbance. KGL has made no effort to disturb them." But with rising pressure, is he confident of getting the remaining land? "Absolutely. There is no way this country will go back on the contract," he says. "If there is a macro element because of politics and social pressure, we are fine. We have not invested on 200,000 ha."He pauses. "Honestly, I don't care. I have got Tanzania. They want to give me a million ha. Mozambique, they have a 100,000 ha. DRC has so much of land." "There are social issues, but Ethiopia is supportive," says ICRA's Dokania. "Agriculture is a big focus for Ethiopia and so is manufacturing," says Mayur Kothari, convenor, India Business Forum in Ethiopia.Opponents, though, do not relent. "You can say, well, it's the Ethiopian government's fault, but you have to look at the role of the investor too," says Mittal. "Oakland Institute! I don't even know who they are. We have invited them over. Come and have a look. What are you guys talking about? They quote us but they still besmirch us. What can we do?" Karuturi asks. A lot will depend on how deftly KGL tackles Human Rights Watch, Anywaa and Oakland, among others. Karuturi says there are five villages with 1200-odd people on his farm."I have not displaced anybody. These are pastoralists. We leave 5 km around the village for them to graze cattle," he says. "This is a myth. In Gambela, land belongs to the indigenous people," says Ochalla.Even before he gets over that hurdle, Karuturi has a lot to prove. "All of them are going to make a loss. There is no infrastructure there. How will you sell?" asks Ajay Jakhar, chairman of the Bharat Krishak Samaj. Karuturi plans to use river navigation via Baro to access markets up to 2,000 km away. KGL has commissioned 500-tonne barges to be pulled by tugboats. "We can go up to North Sudan upstream. Down the Nile, we can go up to lake Victoria, 2,000 km away. Lake Victoria has Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda along its shores," says Karuturi. As the government does not subsidise food or farming in Africa, local prices are higher. Wheat and maize quote at about $250 per tonne on the Chicago Board of Trade. But in Africa, they are sold at about $400 per tonne. But what could trip the world's largest farmer dream? Fund-raising and ability to bring in agripreneurs will be key. Karuturi is still $200 million short on funding Phase 1 of the 300,000 ha. Besides, "there are political risks in Ethiopia and Kenya," says Inamdar. Ethiopia is stable today, thanks to its autocratic Prime Minister Meles Zenawi Asres. If the 57-year-old PM loses his hold, his detractors may attack projects he has okayed.Karuturi may seem prepared, but he knows he is in a zero-tolerance zone. After all, he wouldn't want to live his late father's worst fears. "I promised myself that never again will we be caught napping," says Karuturi. That's as far as predictions go. But in a project of this scale, who can account for the unpredictable?rajeevdubey(at)abp(dot)in(This story was published in Businessworld Issue Dated 11-06-2012)
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The Supreme Court's concurrence with the government's view that all natural resources cannot be auctioned is being seen as a moral victory for the government. It should not be. To the extent that the government emphasised that this is a matter that should be dealt with by the executive and not the judiciary, it has triumphed. But the SC has merely agreed with the government that all natural resources cannot be auctioned. That may have been due to clever arguments by attorney general Goolam E. Vahanvati: "If fish in Kerala are auctioned, what will happen to the fishermen?" But the SC's concurrence isn't a licence to the government to continue with its "opaque, non-competitive, inefficient, arbitrary and full of corruption" spectrum allocation policy, as the Centre for Public Interest Litigation's Prashant Bhushan put it. What's being misconstrued in this brouhaha about the SC verdict is the spirit of the SC's argument — that the arbitrariness in allocation of natural resources must stop and that there must be price discovery of all natural resources. Arguably, ‘auction' only serves the larger purpose of price discovery.But having come this far, the Supreme Court must, ideally, go a step further and classify natural resources into those that ‘must' be auctioned and those that ‘may' be auctioned.Obviously, the fish argument does not apply to coal and iron ore and vice versa. There are living and non-living natural resources and there are static and flowing natural resources where guidelines can be defined tightly.The apex court would be doing a huge disservice to public good if, having come this far, it goes no further.(This story was published in Businessworld Issue Dated 23-07-2012)
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Bluetooth gadgets, peripherals and devices have entered our lives with such remarkable ease that this wireless technology is fast becoming the gold standard in short-haul data transfers. Its latest rival — near field communication (NFC) — is only now getting incorporated into gadgets, but Bluetooth is already an omnipotent technology. It has come a long way since it was invented by Ericsson, as recently as 1994, as an alternative to cables for computer serial ports to connect peripheral devices such as printers, modems and mouse.Today, those are some of the least used gadgets on this protocol. Instead, Bluetooth enables medical equipment such as heart rate monitors, GPS receivers, bar code scanners, game consoles and even traffic monitoring and control devices. There's even a Bluetooth cradle phone for the iPhone, from Native Union. At $150, it may be too much of a price to pay for the feel of a landline phone while talking on your iPhone, but even this caters to a select audience that would rather cradle the iPhone at home or at work and take calls with this tethered device. Here's how Bluetooth is transforming our lives at work, at ease, on the go and in a combination of those:At WorkIt's only fitting that I tethered the 3G connection on my iPhone to my Dell Vostro laptop — via Bluetooth — to report this piece. The surfing is as good as it is in 3G, if, and in whichever pockets of the city, 3G works. Thanks to the Bluetooth v2.0 protocol that most new gadgets sport, which enables them to transmit data at up to 3 mbps as opposed to the highest 1 mbps the previous standard was capable of. UNPLUGGED Jabra Halo stereo headset and Philips mobile headset stream music directly from Bluetooth-compatible hands Every new generation laptop is Bluetooth-enabled. And attaching a wired mouse is so passé. Yet, despite the vastly improving quality of the inbuilt trackpads, there's no substitute to the click-and-scroll feel of a mouse. So lately, peripherals makers such as Belkin, Amkette, Logitech and iBall, besides others, have flooded the market with Bluetooth mice.They are 4-5 times more expensive than the wired one, but convenient. Of course, there's the additional hassle of batteries but these are frugal devices. If you are careful to switch it off at the end of the day, batteries last for a year or more. Setting them up is a breeze. break-page-breakJust pair the two devices by searching one with the other in ‘listen' mode. Feed in the numeric password when prompted, and you are on. The mouse transmits the drivers to the laptop by itself. It takes a few minutes to set up, but once you restart the computer, the drivers kick in. Each time the two are turned on, and within range, they connect automatically. FYI: the default password for all Bluetooth devices is ‘0000'.The biggest negative of wireless mice is also their biggest plus. Their power-saving feature turns off after a minute, but the mouse wakes up tardily, which is often frustrating. Equally, the big draw now are Bluetooth keyboards. Logitech has a full range of them, some customised for the iPad. Most Bluetooth device makers claim the connection between devices wouldn't drop up to 10 metres from the source (phone/laptop/tablet/music player). But, trust me, often the link drops at less than 10 ft. Frankly, Bluetooth devices are at their best within 5-8 ft. Which is why, there is a limit to how far you can surf on your 40 inch LCD with a Bluetooth keyboard on your lap.On The GoWhen you are on the go, the go-to devices are those that spare your neck a sprain from holding your phone against the shoulder. The Jabra Freeway Bluetooth In-car and the Jabra Cruiser in-car speakerphones are two that can save you the trouble. There's also the Jabra Journey and Jabra Drive. Freeway is particularly unique for its hands-free calling and receiving and music capability. Importantly, it clips on to your visor. It announces the name of the caller so you don't need to look at your phone when receiving a call and takes voice commands to receive or reject the call. It turns on by itself when you enter the car and turns off when you exit. Plantronics' Bluetooth K-100 has similar features, but without the stereo. It has a pre-installed FM transmitter so you can stream the music on your phone to the car's stereo system via K-100.At EaseThe next time you see a gentleman strutting around like an FBI agent with that one-eared device with blue blinking light, consider him out of date. Those are falling rapidly from the chic list, even though companies continue to launch them. When you can listen to stereo, why go mono, whether it is music or your phone? After all, even your boss's yelling would sound like music to your ears if you sport stereo devices such as the Nokia BS-505, the Sennheiser Bluetooth stereo headset, the Philips Mobile Bluetooth Headset SHB7110 or the Jabra Halo Stereo Headset. Seriously. ON TRACK Jabra Cruiser in-car speakerphone helps to enjoy a clear and hands-free conversation on the go Now, if you are one of those value drivers, go for the multi-utility Bluetooth receivers such as the Belkin, the Nokia BH-501 and the Nokia BH-214. Their 3.5 mm audio jack is agnostic to what you plug into it. Plug in those earphones to listen to music streamed from your phone or laptop, with the boss's yelling... or, use an auxiliary cable to convert that old music system into a Bluetooth-enabled device capable of playing music from your laptop or phone.In the app world, there are many apps on the iOS, Android and BlackBerry platforms that use your phone's Bluetooth to let you chat, call, exchange SMSes, even use your phone as a walkie-talkie among all those who have installed the app on their phones. From the Apple Store you could try the ‘Bluetooth IM' from Chris-Software.com or the ‘Bluetooth Phone' from nathanpeterson.com both of which create personal networks between users for free calls or instant messaging. Of course, sharing contact lists, video, photos and music has been the hallmark of all Bluetooth standards, though speeds have improved with every new version. But if you'd rather wait for your first Bluetooth experience, hang around for the extremely energy efficient Bluetooth v4.0 that got approved only last year. Before those products hit the market, you will have the mass-proliferation of Bluetooth v3.0 + HS devices capable of data transfers up to 24 mbps. IN HARMONY Play your iPod touch or iPhone music through home stereo or stand-alone speakers, wirelessly, using Belkin Bluetooth receiver (right) (This story was published in Businessworld Issue Dated 19-12-2011)
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The motley bunch of people, trends and gizmos we handpicked for this week's issue are a reflection of India's aspirations in the decade ahead. But for many of these, just 2011 will be the defining moment.Noel Tata will know by mid-year if he's the chosen one to head the Tata group. Anil Ambani will have to lessen the biggest debt burden in corporate India. And Mamata Banerjee will know whether her wins in circles and wards will translate into a victory in West Bengal. Among the younger lot, 21-year-old designer Masaba Gupta and 32-year-old businesswoman Nisaba Godrej are set to leave their imprint, too.But even the coming decade will be a defining one in many ways. In politics, leaders such as Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar have raised the bar and expectations are rising from the Centre, too. Unless the frustration of the general public (and that pot is boiling) with price rise and corruption dethrones the Congress, the UPA will bet its shirt on crowning Rahul Gandhi. Who, in turn, will have to bear the burden of those expectations.The need for the right balance between the industry's need for land and the burden on the land to grow more will decide between strife and peace in our hinterland. In technology, we will know if cloud computing as an idea will finally succeed or was it a necessity that was too abstract to become a reality. Economically, the run-up to 2020 will decide if India will break away from the pack of developing nations and power ahead, and whether our biggest corporates can build global empires. And it may well herald the rise of the scions such as the Ambani and the Premji NextGens.The decade will see a few disappointments, too. Terrorism threatens our democracy. The domestic pharma industry's dream of a home-grown drug appear unrealistic. Not to forget that the nation continues to be in search of the next big idea since the advent of IT offshoring in the 1980s.(This story was published in Businessworld Issue Dated 10-01-2011)
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