There was an interesting story some weeks ago. An enterprising smuggler in Saudi Arabia had tried to camouflage 48,000 cans of beer as Pepsi and bring them into the desert kingdom. The authorities saw through the "Pepsi" cans. The story evoked a few smiles about the doggedness of criminals to come up with new tricks. But many also marveled at the foolishness of the smuggler because punishment in Saudi Arabia can be fairly harsh. Despite knowing about public beheadings, lashes and chopping of limbs, the smuggler made an attempt to fulfill the "demand" for alcohol in Saudi Arabia with his own ways of "supply".
There is another recent story, from India this time. After a stinging rebuke from the Kerala High Court, the finance minister of the state K.M. Mani was compelled to resign after stonewalling corruption charges for more than a year. Some bar owners in Kerala have accused Mr Mani of taking bribes to allow them to function. More scandals related to alcohol and bars are erupting in Kerala. Now, alcohol is completely banned in Saudi Arabia while Kerala is trying its unique prohibition policy where essentially the well to do can go to expensive star hotels for a drink while the poor would have no access.
Many are wondering if the chief minister of Bihar Nitish Kumar, who has emerged as the hero of anti-BJP groups in India after inflicting a humiliating electoral defeat on prime minister Narendra Modi, has even bothered to read and ponder over these reports before making a sudden grand announcement that prohibition will be imposed in Bihar with effect from April 1, 2016. According to him, this was an electoral promise he made to people, particularly women, during the election campaign and he is duty bound to honor it. His supporters (virtually anybody who hates Modi qualifies to be one!) say that alcoholism is a social evil that needs to tackled. Even more strange is the silence of many champions of "individual choice and freedom" who have been (justifiably) lambasting the BJP for its seeming obsession with beef bans. But then, liberalism in India has always been a selective ideology!
That apart, why the author talked about the recent stories from Saudi Arabia and Kerala is to identify two reasons why prohibition (banning of alcohol) is a doomed effort from the start and how it could damage Bihar in ways that we can't even envisage now. There is no doubt that alcoholism is a social evil. While it respects no class or money barriers, alcoholism does destroy families at the base of the social and economic pyramid since they are more vulnerable. Yet, just as the road to hell is paved with noble intentions, this dramatic policy change announced by Nitish Kumar will prove to be disastrous. In contemporary times, the late N.T. Rama Rao in Andhra Pradesh and the late Bansi Lal in Haryana tried prohibition. And failed spectacularly.
What the Saudi story shows is simple laws of economics at work. There will always be a supply if there is a demand. It doesn't matter if the demand is illegal, immoral or unethical. And suppliers will take dangerous risks to fulfill demand. Just imagine the fate of that smuggler in Saudi Arabia. Across the world, including the prohibitions era in the United States in the 1920s, this basic principle of economics always triumphs over rules and laws. Many countries have banned pornography. But it has always been available at the right price. Prostitution is banned in many countries. Makes no difference. Even the most evil and repugnant of activities like child sexual abuse has found suppliers. The United States has spent hundreds of billions of dollars fighting the drug menace for more than four decades. Most analysts say it has failed. Closer home, the only major state where prohibition is in force is Gujarat. Anyone who has lived there or traveled there knows that alcohol is available even there: at the right price. That is why Nitish Kumar will fail. In this age of Internet, closed social media groups and instant connectivity, he will fail even more spectacularly. Even as he fails, he will deprive Bihar of the tax revenue that alcohol generates.
But as the Kerala story shows, there is something even more dangerous that could unravel all the good work related to law and order and basic governance that Nitish has done in Bihar over the last 10 years. Prohibition will not stop the supply of alcohol since there will always be a demand. But it will almost certainly lead to a massive jump in illegal activities, corruption and crime. Nitish must know that the law and order machinery in his state is still fragile and vulnerable to pressures. When (not if) some politicians and mafia lords (sometimes the two are one and the same!) take over the liquor business in the state, large sections of the police in Bihar will become clear complicit. Worse, the amount of easy money to be made will be so huge that a whole lot of new age "Gangs of Wasseypur" will crop up in Bihar and fight pitched battles for "market share". It could be at least a decade before an oligopoly of the most ruthless gang lords are able to kill rivals and absorb their gang members into their own private armies. What will happen to the law and order situation Bihar can be easy to guess. Sure capital per se doesn't shy away from places where alcohol is banned; Gujarat is a classic example. But it will not go to a lawless Bihar which will be an inevitability if prohibition is imposed.
Nitish Kumar means well. But as mentioned earlier, the road to hell is paved with noble intentions.
