<div><em><strong>Sutanu Guru</strong> looks at the reasons that will ensure the Indian Parliament remains paralysed</em></div><div> </div><div>A recent report by Moody's Analytics (not Moody's ratings) that warned the Narendra Modi regime that foreign investors might be spooked by the growing menace of intolerance in the country has triggered a furious debate. The usual ideological wars are being fought on social and mainstream media. The author personally feels that the report will hardly have any impact on global investors who want to genuinely participate in the Make in India and Digital India missions. But what could spook them for sure would be signs that the Modi regime is unable to move ahead with key economic decisions and legislations.</div><div> </div><div>The winter session of Parliament is just round the corner. While the Land Bill has been consigned to the dustbin, there are several key bills pending passage; and a few that would be introduced very soon. The most important new Bill will be related to a new Bankruptcy law that has been approved by the Union Cabinet. The GST Bill is still pending. As are crucial bills related to money laundering, black money, whistleblower protection and some more. If the Modi regime successfully manages to get these bills passed, there would be a direct impact on the Ease of Doing Business rankings that will be released by the World Bank next year. But if the bills remain pending because the Parliament is paralyzed as it was during the monsoon session, there is no doubt that India would be sending a negative message to investors.</div><div> </div><div>Given that backdrop, why does it appear as if the Modi regime might fail yet again in ensuring that the parliament does its basic job: of debating and passing bills? There are three reasons for this: The Bihar effect, the 2016 Electoral effect and the Fringe effect.</div><div> </div><div>Though actual results would be out on November 8, 2015, there seems to be a consensus that the Grand Alliance led by chief minister Nitish Kumar and friend turned foe turned friend Lalu Yadav are heading for a more than comfortable victory. If this happens, the opposition parties will definitely get a booster dose of confidence. They will realise that this is right time to expose and exploit the chinks in Modi's armor. While the Bihar elections are not a referendum on the performance of the Modi government at the center, there is little doubt that the seemingly impregnable persona of Modi would be severely dented if the NDA loses badly. After all, by not nominating a chief ministerial candidate, Modi has staked his personal charisma and popularity. In a weird manner, the opposition will be determined to stall the Parliament even if the Bihar results are different. If the NDA wins, the Congress, finding itself increasingly irrelevant and hopeless, will again attempt a repeat of the monsoon session of Parliament. Then, Parliament was paralyzed because of alleged improprieties of senior BJP leaders like Sushma Swaraj, Vasundhara Raje Scindia and Shivraj Singh Chouhan. This time, it will be stalled because of "growing intolerance and fascism" in the country.</div><div> </div><div>Deft political management might possibly have helped the NDA try to isolate the Congress in the Parliament by striking deals with other regional parties. But that is where the 2016 Electoral effect will kick in. It is quite strange how pundits obsessed with Bihar and Intolerance have not yet pointed this one out. The fact is: Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Assam go to polls in 2016. Very soon, you will start hearing noises about campaign strategies for these elections. Assam promises to be a thoroughly "polarized" elections with identity politics playing a major role. To some extent, the BJP has to play the "Hindu" card it is serious about wining Assam. So whatever the Bihar verdict, don't expect any softening of the Hindutva stance. Precisely for the same reason, it would be in the interests of Mamata Bannerjee to appear hostile towards the Modi regime. With close to 30 per cent Muslims as voters in West Bengal, it makes sense for Mamata Bannerjee to be "seen" as anti-Modi. What better place and time than the winter session of the Indian Parliament to display this? Something similar can be expected from the Tamil Nadu chief minister J. Jayalalitha. In effect, the 2016 electoral effect will prompt regional parties to remain hostile to the Modi regime.</div><div> </div><div>Add to this the third "Fringe" effect and you have a recipe for a washed out winter session. The NDA regime has spectacularly failed to rein in r control "fringe" elements whose atrocious and lunatic statements in front of TV cameras have started worrying even Modi supporters. Just look at how senior BJP leaders like Yogi Adityanath and Kailash Vijavarghava have ensured that the BJP looks like an intolerant villain in the Shah Rukh Khan episode. Going by the track record of the last year and half, we can be fairly certain that some BJP or Sangh Parivar motor mouths will issue crazy statements. That would be enough reason for opposition parties to stall Parliament till Modi "issues a statement on the floor of the house".</div><div> </div><div>Forget Moody's Analytics. It is the prospect of another washed out session of Parliament that should be giving sleepless nights to Modi.</div>
