Time To Walk The Talk

I am truly confused about what to expect in 2016. Last week I even met my friend Girish who practices astrology as a hobby to try and build up expectations for myself. Don’t get me wrong. My life is not ruled by astrology but, a heart bowed down by the weight of woe will cling to the weakest hope. And why should my heart not be bowed down? Throughout 2015 I only read about how India’s many educated people are either applying for jobs far below their educational qualification or throwing it all away to work like beggars since they earn more from the profession despite the degradation. The only succour one can draw from such news is that at least India has its heart in the right place. Charity is still being practiced. Are these the “achhey din” I voted for? I am confused.

India’s economy is best described as an army marching through treacle. Sluggish growth in the past year has done nothing for any sector other than probably health and education. This means, overall job creation has been badly impacted. And governments can no longer go for petty tweaks like changing education from 11+3 years to 12+3 just to delay entry into the workforce as was done in the 1970s. The ITIs continue to be woefully ill-equipped to train a workforce for today’s needs (mechanics are still taught how to tune carburetters which have been supplanted by fuel injection systems!). As a consequence, industries are running their own expensive tailor-made training programs which again limit employability once an employee leaves the company. Annual foreign direct investment (FDI) is not more or less than it has been in the last decade, and in fact, international companies in India are already freezing investment if not downsizing. So what can we expect in the coming year?

Certainly, at the macro level, we can expect the Goods and Services Tax (GST) Bill to get cleared. That’s both good and bad news. Bad news, because the introduction of the Bill would invariably result in a knee-jerk increase in inflation. And good news, because it will eventually lead to a surge in the country’s gross domestic product. Can the nation afford this time lag? Do we have a choice? A bit like the odd-and-even car number game being implemented in Delhi. Of course, we all know it has failed wherever it has been tried (other than in cities or states with much smaller and certainly more disciplined populations). And yet … what is the choice? To sit back and do nothing is to create a situation we won’t be able to correct. Hopefully, the experiment will raise awareness and lasting solutions will emerge. Also, the GST Bill will see the light of day in the budget session.

But I suspect 2016 will be a year of discontent for the BJP government at the centre. After the electoral debacle in Bihar, the party faces real challenges in Kerala, Puducherry, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal. Assam may be easier, but the jury is still out on that. And these results will have a bearing on elections in the populous states of Uttar Pradesh and Punjab that will follow in 2017. The only thing the government can do now is to buckle down and start delivering on promises it made during the run up to its wonderous win in 2014. Even if it delivers on 50 per cent of the problems, India, in gratitude, will erect statues of our beloved Prime Minister.

While it is true that glitches will continue in things like e-governance (last week I was asked by the municipal corporation to not pay taxes online because the Income Tax department marches to a different drummer, and therefore I must revert to the tried-and-tested system) and that a national gas grid or even a national energy policy takes time to formulate, if the government focuses on its primary promise of “Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas” and ensures the corollary “peaceful and secure environment where there is no place for either the perpetrators or exploiters of fear” (from the 2014 BJP manifesto) by reigning in the extreme right elements in the party, else will fall in place. Christmas may have been designated “good governance day”, but New Year’s day remains untouched by these elements and thus I can still safely wish everyone a very happy New Year full of promise and hope for “achhey din”.

The author is a business consultant

(This story was published in BW | Businessworld Issue Dated 11-01-2016)