Rise With The Tide
Om Shree Ganeshay Namah!
Lord Ganesha is omnipresent and is a solution builder in all situations across cultures. The Lord incarnates as per the situation and kills the demon which symbolizes the problems of the era.
As per the Ganesha Purana, Lord Ganesha incarnated as Mayureshwar in the Treta Yug to kill the Demon Sindhu. Sindhu was the son of King Chakrapani of Mithila. Sindhu was given the elixir of life by the Sun God. This made him invincible in his battles against the Gods. In response to the plea of the Gods, Lord Ganesha came down to earth on a peacock mount and defeated the Demon.
How does this improve my portfolio situation? Solutions happen when we look for them. Ideas are in the air, it only needs focused attention.
Look where the demand is
The peacock is a beautiful bird and symbolizes the positive. It is an absolute delight to watch it spread its wings. Solutions for investors are to look at opportunities where structurally demand is likely to be strong.
The solutions in the current world order are built upon the idea of looking at pockets of demand and figuring potential winners in the game. Many of these opportunities are in the listed and unlisted space. Many businesses are becoming at the core digital businesses which represent the future.
Consistent returns are achieved by Investors who are able to see the big picture and have prepared their portfolios for good times in challenging situations and for bad times in good situations.
Zero base - the tide will turn
All that is seen today as a problem was a solution at some point of time. As the Lord separates the Amrit from the demon’s body similarly the good part of the portfolio needs to be kept and the rest discarded sometimes immediately, sometimes gradually.
Key thing is to identify the stage at which exit would need to be made. For one of our clients, we have staggered exits over a period of the last 3-4 months and positioned it for the future. This helps to conserve capital and helped prepare for the road ahead.
This also implies letting go of assets like excessive real estate – beyond 1-2 houses is excessive in our view as it does not beat inflation.
Given the current world order, recessionary trends are projected because of trade wars and potentially weak Europe.
What is the solution?
What is the worst-case scenario? What if it were to happen?
The worst-case scenario can be divided into two parts
International
The Central Banks cannot cut rates any further; however, they always have the ability to induce liquidity and that stays even in environments which have negative interest rates. The key issue is “How and where is demand getting generated?
Europeans with the exception of Germany have more of a lackasidal attitude in terms of seizing the opportunity and hence recovery would be slower, also Brexit is likely to impact recovery to businesses across Europe on the ground. In the US if there is opportunity it is likely to be seized. Recovery is likely to be faster there as businesses are benefitting from the tax cuts given by the government. That has to be seen on balance with the trade war issues.
Our understanding is that President Trump would need to conclude the trade war-related issues sooner than later to ensure his victory in the next Presidential election. The world needs a balanced approach to growth.
India factors
Unless there is a regional tension situation a recession is unlikely. At this stage, there are enough checks and balances internationally to ensure that this situation does not arise.
As per the RBI, the slowdown is cyclical. There are certain key structural elements to be looked at.
Digitization of products and services: This may give us better prices however it has reduced margins of many businesses. It also reduces the potential to create more jobs.
Compliances have increased and on account of penalties, every possible attempt is made to do it timely. To grow as an economy we need to do more high-value addition roles like improving the business design, building new products, expanding the markets which require simpler reporting structures.
Cyclical
NBFC’S need to get funding from the Banks to be able to lend smoothly. Finalisation of asset-liability matching norms would serve as a lighthouse from the investor’s point of view.
Transmission of interest rates is slow; this can be solved over a period of time once NPA’s reduce especially for corporate facing banks.
What are probable solutions?
Interest rates are being cut gradually. Though it might benefit industry pensioners may find the going tougher in the short term. A solution for them is to look at secured debentures.
Government spending may improve with the RBI dividend. There are sufficient checks and balances recommended by the DR Jalan Committee on reserves to ensure a sustainable future which has been accepted by the government.
Infrastructure funding can be done through tax-free bonds as has been done in the past. The government is likely to continue the focus on infrastructure development.
The three-year rule on auto insurance needs to be moderated to annual premiums to trigger a solution. However structural factors indicate that runaway growth may not become a reality.
People are likely to buy more cars around April 2020 as they might benefit from more discounts as the BS 4 old stock gets cleared. This can be a multiplier effect.
Affordable housing is growing at a steady pace. Mainstream housing is likely to grow when people have more confidence in the economy, are willing to take advantage of lower interest rates, which is likely in the next 12-8 months.
MSME lending is beginning in the right earnest. Liquidity problems faced by SME’s are likely to be solved partly through the 59-minute loan. It is likely to enable job creation.
NBFC Lending is likely to accelerate over the next 3-6 months.
IBC (Insolvency & Bankruptcy Code) infrastructure is being upgraded. This is likely to build a foundation for the seeds of true capitalism to be sown as failures are getting resolved in a faster manner and capital getting returned to the system.
The government has initiated PSU bank mergers. This is likely to help consolidate the sector.
One overlooked factor from a demand point of view is India has 7000 castes which result in many festivals throughout the year thus creating steady demand. No economist has made a projection of below 5 per cent GDP growth for the Indian Economy.
May the Divine help you shape your future wisely.
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