<div>The print media sector, with its rumoured Damocles’ sword, may have something to look forward to this coming year. According to a December 2012 report by Motilal Oswal Financial Services, Making Headlines Again, a rebound in advertising growth is imminent. <br /><br />Motilal Oswal believes that the print advertising cycle has bottomed out after the worst show in a decade, from where the sector’s ad revenues can only go up. The report estimates that the print media segment will clock a compounded annual growth in earnings of 17 per cent during 2013-15, compared with estimates of a 3 per cent growth in fiscal 2013 after an 11 per cent decline in 2011-12. Among the factors that will sway the verdict in print’s favour is an expected easing of interest rates that will be positive for categories like auto and realty — both heavy advertisers in print.<br /><br />The report estimates that print advertising will also grow by 11 per cent in the next two financial years against 3 per cent growth in the current financial year. <br /><br />This is not the first time analysts have taken a positive position on this sector. Even in the past, analysts have forecast fortunes only to be corrected when the vagaries of business cycles take their toll. Take the case of the FICCI-KPMG report on the media and entertainment industry in 2011, which predicted that the ad revenues of print media firms would grow more than 13 per cent in calendar year 2012. This is a far cry from the 3 per cent growth estimated by MOSF. <br /><br />The numbers released in the FICCI-KPMG 2012 from March last year are also fairly reserved. The report said that the print industry grew by 8.3 per cent from Rs 19,300 crore in 2010 to Rs 20,900 crore in 2011 (advertising revenues are estimated to be 41 per cent of that) — lower than the predicted 9.5 per cent growth. <br /><br />Some others are also cautious about Motilal Oswal’s predictions. “We don’t see a substantial increase in the fortunes of the print media in the next year. The expectations seem a bit too far-fetched,” says a senior media buyer on condition of anonymity. His rationale: in the past advertisers poured their budgets mainly into print and TV. Now, newer media like digital are gaining ground, taking up 8-9 per cent of a client’s total ad spend.<br /><br />Ravi Rao, leader, South Asia, at Mindshare, a leading media buying agency, says he expects an increase in newspaper ad revenues for 2013, though magazine ad revenues may go down. He goes on to add that digital media might become the third largest advertising medium in the country, replacing out-of-home advertising. <br /><br />In 2011, TV had overtaken print to become the largest ad medium, now the question is whether ads in the digital space will grow at the expense of both TV and print? “Yes, in some ways,” says Rao. <br /><br />So where does that leave the estimates by the analysts? “The growth of digital might not have an impact on ad revenues of print or television, as the absolute numbers of digital is no comparison to the size of print. Our estimate of print advertising growth rates takes into account the eventuality of any market share decline for print,” says Shobhit Khare, analyst at Motilal Oswal. But other media experts think it is too soon to take a final call just yet.</div>
