Even after a decade of being around, the weather industry in India is still nascent, facing many handicaps and deterrents. One of the major obstacles that weather forecasters confront are ill-suited expectations.
"You said it would be sunny but it rained!"
Before we understand the intricacies of the challenges of weather forecasts in India, let us dissect the dissatisfaction embodied in the statement above. The issue here is twofold. Firstly, the psychological baggage of erroneous forecasts from the past century is chiseled in our collective memory that weather forecasts in India are inefficient, they simply do not work. In the other part of the problem, globetrotting users have encountered (and happily trumpeted about) functional, well timed forecasts, warning citizens of snow at 8 in the morning!
The state of efficiency of weather forecasts has significantly improved over time. But it is nowhere near the accuracy of what weather forecasters in Europe or North America achieve. And it will not reach there any time soon. This is something the Indian users need to acknowledge and plan accordingly.
But why?
Weather in tropics is a different ball game all together. Local and smaller (meso scale or lesser than 1000 kms) systems typically dominate the weather here. For example, in the tropics, the temperature and pressure over a small geographical area can change swiftly if exposed to heat (sun/heat waves) or cold (sea breeze/chilly winds). Consequential heating, cooling or thunder/dust storms thus occur in a time frame that cannot be captured in a day ahead forecast.
In mid latitude countries, large (synoptic scale or more than 1000 kms) systems rule the weather. While early developments in numeric weather prediction (mathematical models of ocean-atmosphere to predict weather) were made in these countries, larger systems are easier to predict as well. Movement and ensuing weather events associated with these weather systems can be predicted with great precision days in advance.
Moreover, ground and atmospheric observations are quite sparse in the tropics including India. This makes the input to numeric weather prediction weak(er) and subsequently erodes the efficacy of the forecasts emerging from these computer run programs.
Though comparatively inferior to some countries, weather forecasts can still prove extremely crucial in taking vital decisions in India. Average weather forecast authenticity nears 80% and incorporating their guidance is better than trusting intuition which has only a 50% probability of coming true (analogy to tossing a coin).
From judicious use of limited agricultural resources in daily farming activities to orchestrating sales success (or cutback losses) employing weather cues, the socio-economic rewards of the Indian economy run on weather forecasts are endless. Sensible use of energy (a critical resource whose demand fluctuates with weather) can also help remarkable cutbacks in carbon emissions. Coal fired energy constitutes for almost 60% of what 1.252 billion Indians consume!
This piece is incomplete without emphasizing that the status quo in weather forecasts can change. Significant government spending in upgrading the weather observation infrastructure and encouraging private enterprise in research and development can engender radical breakthroughs. One of the first moves can be to grant weather the status of an industry and sops for investments made in this sector.
In spite of everything, the experience of Indian users with respect to weather forecasts is on a correction path, riding on evolutionary changes ignited by private enterprise.
Columnist
Indranil is a weather industry expert with a decade long experience in the domain. He has been instrumental in setting up novel weather services across landscapes for both agriculture and industry, raising capital and crafting a growth story for weather forecasting in India. Currently he is Senior Vice President of Express Weather.
