<div>Weak economic revival and global trade continue to impact the traffic at 12 major ports in the country, according to a study by BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. </div><div>The weaker-than-expected domestic revival has impacted non-oil-non-gold imports while weak global growth continues to hit exports growth, says the study. The port sector witnessed a tepid 3.9 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in the first half of the calendar year 2015.</div><div> </div><div>After registering a robust 11 per cent y-o-y growth during 9MFY15, container traffic has slowed down to just 3 per cent y-o-y in in the first half of the calendar year 2015 due to weak EXIM trade. The BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research has recently cut its growth estimates for non-oil-non-gold imports as well as for exports.</div><div> </div><div>Despite India's muted power demand growth at 0.5 per cent in in the first half of the calendar year 2015 against robust 8.5 per cent domestic coal production growth, the study says that the growth in coal traffic has remained strong at 20 per cent mainly driven by a robust 24 per cent y-o-y growth in thermal coal.</div><div> </div><div>Coal imports growth would turn flat in FY17 before starting to decline from FY18 as Coal India to ramp-up its production at 11 per cent CAGR in FY15-19 (versus just 4 per cent in the last decade).</div><div> </div><div><img alt="" src="http://bw-image.s3.amazonaws.com/graphs.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 750px;"></div><div> </div><div>Port traffic growth has a strong correlation with GDP. However, despite an improving economy, based on bottom-up cargo-wise analysis, the study says port traffic to register a CAGR of only 4.5 per cent in FY15-19 against 4.7 per cent recorded during FY10-15. </div><div> </div><div>Weak port traffic growth for the sector would also impact private sector operators. The study has cut port traffic growth estimate for Adani Ports to 14 per cent Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in FY15-19 (against 18 per cent earlier) and for Gujarat Pipavav to 9 per cent CAGR in FY15-19. However, these ports would continue to gain market share from the inefficient and congested major ports operated by the government and given their strategic location on India's west coast.</div>
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