The results of elections to five states have changed many an equation. While the BJP claims PM Narendra Modi’s “Congress-mukt Bharat” dream is closer to realisation, it also says it’s now the only pan-Indian political party in the country.
While the political implications are obvious, it’s the economic and legislative impact of the results that will be interesting to watch out for. For instance, the passage of GST Constitution amendment Bill in the monsoon session has just got easier.
Consider this: Except for the Congress the entire political spectrum is behind the government in passing the GST Bill, save for the AIADMK. And there are indications already that the ruling party in Tamil Nadu may soften its position in the Rajya Sabha when the Bill comes up for discussion in the next session.
While a couple of Union ministers had antagonised AIADMK supremo J. Jayalalithaa no end — by calling her “inaccessible”, “most corrupt” — the BJP government, after the results were declared, sought to mend fences.
PM Modi was the first to call Jayalalithaa once it became apparent that the AIADMK would buck the anti-incumbency trend and form the government in the state again. The PM’s call was quickly followed by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley’s call to the TN CM, with the hope that the numerically important group of 12 party MPs in the Upper House doesn’t obstruct the Constitution amendment Bill’s passage.
With the entire opposition take care of, the Congress won’t find it easy to play the spoilsport when the GST Bill is taken up in the Rajya Sabha next session.
The assembly election results have also given PM Modi the reason to rejig his Cabinet. Sarbananda Sonowal, a minister at the Centre, is the CM-designate in Assam. There are already whispers in the capital that former Congressman and now BJP’s chief strategist in Assam, Himanta Biswa Sarma, would replace Sonowal in the Union Cabinet. Sarma’s supporters in Assam though would like him to be the deputy chief minister in the state.
While it’s unlikely that the biggies will be reshuffled in the Cabinet rejig, there’s a possibility that some ministers of state, especially from poll-bound Uttar Pradesh like Santosh Gangwar and Manoj Sinha may get elevated to Cabinet rank.
There’s also a possibility that UP’s Kalraj Misra is retained even though he touches the cut-off age of 75.
A simultaneous overhaul of the BJP party apparatus is also on the cards. Some Union ministers — including a couple of high-flying ones — might be drafted for party work, while there could be new faces in the team of BJP general secretaries, including from the states of Uttar Pradesh and Assam.
BW Reporters
Suman K Jha was the deputy editor with BW Businessworld
