Politics: The Game Of Gujarat
The Gujarat elections will impact national politics in ways more than one. For one, it’s the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) president Amit Shah. A win there would be a vote of confidence in the sons of soil. A loss would be nothing less than a loss of face. For Rahul Gandhi, about to be anointed Congress president, a win in the state would boost his sagging fortunes. BW Businessworld presents to you the battle of Gujarat as a ready reckoner:
Narendra Modi vs Rahul Gandhi: In the past, the outcome of such a battle has been a forgone conclusion. BJP has often joked that Gandhi’s rise as Congress president would be the biggest gift to them; so ineffective he has been in checking the BJP rise. This time round, however, it’s a different ballgame. Gandhi is getting traction in Gujarat. He has left no stone unturned in putting up a formidable challenge to the BJP. From soft Hindutva to cultivating various caste groups, Gandhi has done it all. OBC mascot Alpesh Thakore has joined him. Dalit leader Jignesh Mevani says 90 per cent of his demands have been agreed to by Gandhi. Patidar young turk Hardik Patel is ambivalent, though he may announce last-minute support. All in all, Modi’s BJP faces a formidable force in the social coalition that Gandhi has managed this election.
Gujarat’s social fabric: Patidars constitute about 12 to 15 per cent of the state’s population. Dalits are 7 to 8 per cent. Scheduled Tribe (ST) groups about 15 per cent. Rajputs are 5 per cent, Brahmins 2 per cent, and Baniyas 2 per cent. The OBCs (other backward caste) are around 40 per cent. This is for the first time since 1985 (when Madhav Singh Solanki stitched together a KHAM coalition), that a caste coalition is being propped up to capture power in the state.
Ear to the ground: The last two years in the state have witnessed the Patidar movement (led by Hardik Patel), OBC movement (a counter-agitation led by Alpesh Thakore), and Dalit movement (led by Jignesh Mevani, after the atrocities on Dalits in the state). The last one year of demonetisation and GST has led to large-scale disruption in businesses, especially small businesses, across the state. Gujaratis are extremely unhappy about it, and Gandhi is trying to tap into this, apart from caste discontent. What works in Modi’s favour, however, is that there is no one locally who inspires confidence. As a local observer says: “It’s all about TINA (there is no alternative)”. Modi remains the tallest Gujarati alive today. The state government, in the meantime, has withdrawn cases lodged against Patidar youth leaders. It has announced sops for ST government employees as well as farm loan waivers to the tune of Rs 3 lakh.
On the record: Gujarat chief minister Vijay Rupani said Gandhi’s campaign in the state has been a non-starter. Rupani sounded confident about BJP’s Mission 150 in the state that has a 182-member assembly. Alpesh Thakore, who hails from a Congress family, said the OBCs have found their ally in the Congress, especially Gandhi. Thakore has been drawing good crowds. This, however, makes Hardik Patel nervous. There’s been no firm commitment on Patel quotas from the Congress, so Patel sounded ambivalent. After meeting Gandhi, Jignesh Mevani said that he may not be there in the Congress, but the party had seconded most of his demands.
Surveys say their own tale: While there have been several surveys, BW Businessworld commissioned two more to gauge the public mood. Interestingly, both point to a clear Narendra Modi-BJP edge in the state. The BW-C Voter survey predicts that the BJP will win 50.7 per cent of popular votes, with 121-131 votes, while Congress will have to be content with 40.6 per cent of popular votes. In the BW-Traverse survey, 52.98 per cent of voters say the BJP will win the state, while only 36.04 per cent say the Congress will. All this despite the hype over the social coalition that the Congress has managed.
The final outcome: Modi and the BJP may still have the last laugh in the battle royale. It will, however, be largely due to Modi’s personal appeal. The state that made Modi and sent him to Delhi won’t let him down. This alone will save the BJP. Though the party may fall short of its avowed aim of 150 seats. Local observers say there may be another twist in the tale post-election results. There is no guarantee that Rupani will get to reoccupy the CM’s chair. Rupani was Amit Shah’s nominee when he was made the CM. For PM Modi, Anandiben Patel and then Nitin Patel were the first choices to helm the state. In that sense, the state could witness an anti-climax.
