Once Again, ‘Sharing’ Can Save The Day
Today, for someone staying in Dwarka, a sub-city in Delhi, commuting all the way to Faridabad (in Haryana) in less than half an hour, might seem unreal. But it can be a reality in the next decade or so, thanks to flying taxis that are under development by an American unicorn. In fact, there could be a plethora of similar seamless transportation solutions such as personal mobility devices, autonomous pods and taxis, drones, mass transit buses and trains, living spaces on wheels, robo taxis and air-taxis, etc., which will bring far-reaching changes to our cities and our lives by enabling quicker daily commutes, less traffic congestion, and cleaner air around the world.
However, such futuristic and groundbreaking innovations are likely to face compatibility issues in a country like India, which has its own set of challenges, issues and difficulties. At present, around 45 per cent of the working population in cosmopolitan cities go to work on two and three wheelers and another 40-45 per cent take the bus. With rising congestion levels and air pollution, most journeys are bound to become multi-modal in pursuit of time-efficiency and convenience. Our fast-digitising economy offers many unique opportunities for well-integrated mobility architecture. Industry analysts are predicting a convergence between automotive, technology and energy to offer seamless multi-modal transportation. So, soon Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) will gain traction, and there will be a decline in personal mobility ownership.
Says Chetan Maini, co-founder and vice-chairman at SUN Mobility, “While the world is focusing a lot on cars, India has to zero in on a very robust public transportation, efficient shared-mobility solutions, and also on solutions that are interoperable. Having one source of energy that can be used across multiple platforms is important because, from the cost point of view, India has to think differently. So broadly, the ‘Future of Mobility in India’ will be driven by five key areas: electrification of transportation, shared mobility, connectivity, autonomous vehicles and renewable energy sources. What is the going to happen in the future is the dots related to these five areas will be connected. We will see an emergence of new business model of technologies.”
According to Puneet Gupta, associate director at IHS Markit, a sales forecasting and market research firm, “Going forward, there will be a revolution in mobility, and the concept of the century-old model of selling oil-powered cars to consumers for personal use may die out in the years to come. I think we may see a few OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) such as Maruti Suzuki who may plan to set up new dealer sales channels with a focus to sell mobility as a service. Though in the beginning it may be selling cars, but ultimately it will be get converted to selling mobility. The entire supply chain may get challenged as the business can’t work the way it is working today. There would be an emergence of auto tech companies, technology companies who will be at the heart of the whole system. Mobility will help India take a leap to fulfil the growing demand of every individual who can’t afford to buy a motorised vehicle today or in the years to come. This is due to lower per capita income of the country which makes it challenging (for people) to buy their own vehicles.”
Seconding Gupta’s thoughts Christie Fernandez, founder of Sooorya Electrical Vehicles, says, “I foresee the automobile industry changing rapidly in the next two to three decades, with disruptive advancements taking place every six to eight years, similar to what happened in the computing world. While the developed world with a high percentage of personal car ownership will lead the way in autonomous vehicles and e-mobility, the developing world will quickly move to electric vehicles, but will be laggards in autonomous vehicles. In order to cater to the large unmet needs for affordable, comfortable and eco-friendly transportation, we are working on an eight-seater electric van, which is purpose built for ride-sharing in emerging markets such as India. I think the best way to reduce personal passenger cars on the road, is to provide air-conditioned public transportation (in India). Private operators should be allowed to operate buses and trains, and then the transformation will be quicker.”
Ridesharing Sees Massive Uptick
With the country’s road transport in a shambles, a lot of technology-enabled (seat-based) shared mobility providers such as Ola, Uber and Shuttl have demonstrated the ability to directly address the dual challenge of congestion and pollution, and provide a carbon-efficient, space-efficient, safe, and cost-effective solution for urban India. By leveraging technology and focusing on safety and comfort, these companies are not only catalysing a shift from private-vehicle use to shared mobility but are also encouraging more women to move into the workforce. The future of mobility, in the near to medium term, thus relies on shared and environment-friendly transportation that is scalable and easily accessible for all.
According to an Uber-commissioned BCG report, up to 89 per cent of people plan to buy a new car in the next five years. However, over 79 per cent would refrain from buying a car if ridesharing matches car ownership for affordability and convenience. The study titled Unlocking Cities: The impact of ridesharing across India also highlights that the top four Indian cities are today 149 per cent more congested than comparable cities in Asia and the country is losing over $22 billion a year in peak traffic hours compared to travel time during non-peak hours in those cities. In these circumstances, ridesharing would reduce private cars by 33-68 per cent. By reducing private cars, increasing vehicle utilisation, improving public transport adoption, and optimising infrastructure planning, ridesharing could reduce congestion by 17-31 per cent, the findings show.
“If car ownership trends continue, Indian cities risk coming to a complete standstill in only a few years,” says Barney Harford, chief operating officer of Uber. “Ridesharing can be part of the solution to traffic congestion because it uses technology to get more people into fewer cars. We can unlock our cities and their full potential, but we have to do it together,” he adds.
Shuttl co-founder Amit Singh says, “The current mobility models — dependent on single-occupied individual cars — have led to congestion and left a big per capita carbon footprint across our cities. Vehicular pollution from the transport sector is extremely high and we find ourselves under a cloud of smoke and in a perpetual gridlock. These trends have to be reversed and new models will have to focus on moving people and not vehicles, while at the same time addressing pollution, safety and overall passenger experience. We all know a bus at full capacity is road efficient, but service levels have to go up for people to make the shift.”
On the same lines, Ola CEO Bhavish Aggarwal says, “Rapid urbanisation and the problems of traffic congestion and pollution are forcing mobility stakeholders to rethink transportation. Technology is at the core of this movement where the focus is on building sustainable mobility solutions that are convenient, affordable, and safe at the same time. Shared mobility will definitely emerge as a preferred choice for transportation in the coming years across private and public transportation for daily commute. Ola Share has saved millions of litres of fuel and kilograms of CO2 since its inception and has made personalised transportation even more affordable for users. Scaling mass-shared mobility solutions, making them reliable, affordable, and safe will be a game-changer in this space.”
“We believe that urban mobility will be a seamless integration of efficient network of public transportation that will be complimented by services catering to the last-mile or short commute. So anyone who has to go from point A to B will use multiple modes of vehicles for the same journey which are deeply connected and seamless to make such travel most efficient in terms of time, money and impact on environment. We are transforming last-mile and short-distance commute by providing the most sustainable, efficient and affordable mobility as a service using human- and battery-powered mini two wheelers,” shares Amit Gupta, co-founder and CEO at Yulu.
Road Ahead
While industry observers are unanimous in their views that transforming urban mobility requires a multi-pronged approach, many have maintained that electric vehicles are not the only panacea. Many feel that urban and transport policy makers have an important role to play, taking into account local city conditions.
Celeris Technologies chairman and author Faster, Smarter, Greener: the Future of the Car and Urban Mobility, published by the MIT Press, V. Sumantran asserts that, “India needs to be inspired by the mobility architecture of high-density metros such as Tokyo, Singapore and Hong Kong. These cities support high GDP per unit area while simultaneously lowering carbon footprint and managing air-quality. Land-use, affordability and environment goals must guide Indian cities. There is a clear momentum globally to favour electrification, with lower storage cost and increasing scale of manufacture. Yet, total operating cost will remain a challenge for much of the next five years. In the meantime, I see a lot more opportunity for electrification in mass transit and public fleets (like taxis). Here, short-term subsidies can be more easily justified. India is poised for rapid urbanisation as our economy gathers pace. Mobility needs will multiply as per capita GDP increases. Supporting more mobility demands in ever more crowded cities will require a lot of technology and entrepreneurship. These trajectories must be guided and steered by well-thought policies and regulations oriented to serving public good.”
