The new year brings along with it a fresh set of challenges for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his NDA government at the Centre. Foremost is the challenge, including in Parliament, to take the economy into the fast zone. The government’s attempts to pass the GST Constitution Amendment Bill in 2015 winter session came to a naught — thanks to an unyielding Congress.
Whether the Congress will relent and the Rajya Sabha will function normally in the coming Budget Session is an interesting question. The next hearing in the National Herald case is on 20 February and the party insiders say that the Congress would like to keep up the momentum till then. So, as the party rediscovered the issue of resignations of BJP chief ministers after the National Herald case cropped up (after it had, sort of, buried the issue, after the monsoon session), will the main Opposition party come up with new alibi to stall Parliament if something unexpected happens in the case in the court? And will the coming assembly polls in five states cast a shadow on the session? We will have to wait and see.
It’s not the economic legislations alone that are waiting for the PM’s urgent attention. After electoral reverses in Delhi and Bihar, the BJP faces litmus test in Assam. For the party, it’s a must-win case if it has to get back its feel-good factor. In Delhi, and Bihar, PM Modi had led from the front and made the campaign Presidential (pitted against Arvind Kejriwal in Delhi and Nitish Kumar in Bihar). Party sources say that while Modi would campaign vigorously, local leaders like Sarbananda Sonowal — party’s CM candidate in the state — will also get their due.
In other four states going to polls in 2016, the BJP doesn’t quite have a presence though it hopes to improve its showing in Kerala and somewhat in West Bengal.
In the phase when the BJP scored impressive victories in states like Haryana, Maharashtra, and Jharkhand, PM Modi (along with confidants Amit Shah and Arun Jaitley) enjoyed near total control over the BJP. Ever since the debacle in Bihar, rumblings and voices of dissent have been coming out in the open in the BJP, and it will be a big challenge for the Prime Minister to take everyone along, specially when Jaitley has come under attack not only from the Opposition, but also some of his own in the DDCA “scam”. Modi will also have to be watchful for the oldies in the party — the “margdarshak mandal” who have been looking for reasons for relevance in the party.
This challenge for Modi extends to the position of party president. Although a number of party leaders have voiced their support for Amit Shah’s continuation in the position, post-January, it’s still not clear that the Modi protégé will get a fresh term, as the RSS is said to be itching to gain some control over the party apparatus.
(This story was published in BW | Businessworld Issue Dated 25-01-2016)
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Suman K Jha was the deputy editor with BW Businessworld