Major Agrarian States Have Lower Levels In Water Reservoirs
Amid the prediction of normal monsoon by IMD and warning for heat waves, there are states having lower storage in water reservoirs than last year for the corresponding period. Many of such states are considered as the backbone for India’s agriculture production.
In April 2018, Indian Meteorological Department had issued its temperature outlook for April to June 2018. This is when temperatures climb before the onset of the Southwest Monsoon. The forecast indicates warmer than normal temperatures in the North and North-Western India and normal to slightly below normal temperatures for Eastern, East-Central, and Southern parts of India. Monsoon progress, reservoir levels, and pre-monsoon showers deserve monitoring to assess India’s 2018-19 Kharif potential. Though there has been continuous information of rainfalls in most of the North Indian regions but it has only created difficulty for the farmers for cultivation of crops (wheat for instance). On 16th of April, IMD forecasted a normal rainfall at 97 per cent of long term average for this season with an error of five per cent on both sides. This is very much similar to what IMD had forecasted previous year. Though the heat wave conditions may prevail as per the earlier forecast, a major concern is the condition of reservoirs in worst of the cases.
Rainfall Distribution (pre-monsoon)
<iframe src="//datawrapper.dwcdn.net/XWJRt/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" width="600" height="344"></iframe>
Heat wave conditions
IMD had forecasted above-normal high temperatures for the months of April to June with above normal sub-divisional average seasonal temperatures (maximum, minimum, and mean) over most of the meteorological sub-divisions of the country. The IMD forecast also predicts slightly below normal seasonal temperatures in the Eastern, East-Central, and Southern subdivisions of the country. Overall, the seasonal temperature anomalies are likely to be colder than those observed during the corresponding season in 2017. Same has been observed in most of the North Indian region.
Concerns for Reservoir levels
As temperatures climb before the monsoon begins, greater attention is paid towards reservoir levels and pre-monsoon rainfall. Nationwide, rainfall has been lower than the fifty-year average though the land area in the Southern peninsula has witnessed greater precipitation. The additional rainfall in the Southern region is important as the area experienced deficient rains, last monsoon and reservoir levels remain lower considerably than the average for the past decade.
While few states are having better storage than last year for the corresponding period, for example, West Bengal, Tripura, Maharashtra, Uttarakhand, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Rajasthan is the only state having equal storage as last year for the corresponding period. States having lower storage than last year for the corresponding period are the states that are backbone for better yields of various crops, for instance, Punjab, Jharkhand, Odisha, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Telangana.
Storage in major reservoirs (Billion Cubic Meter)
<iframe src="//datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ihoxM/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" width="600" height="444"></iframe>
