Lull In Monsoon Weighs On Kharif Sowing: Crisil

The lull in monsoon over the past 15 days up to July 12 has impacted pace of sowing of kharif crops in 2021-22 crop year (July-June), ratings agency Crisil said on Monday.

'In our view, there could be a major shift in soybean, cotton and maize acreages across the rainfall deficit states if the monsoon fails to revive as forecast,' it said in a report.

Since the onset of monsoon, rainfall in India has been 7 per cent lower than long period average (LPA). On June 23, monsoon covered almost 93 per cent of kharif acreage — a week before its usual onset.

'However, the lull in monsoon over the past 15 days (up to 12 July) has weighed on the pace of kharif sowing,' the ratings agency said.

Further, it said cumulative sowing till July 16 was 12 per cent lower year-on-year attributable to the advancement in sowing last year.

The current sowing is 4 per cent lower than normal (average of last five years), it said.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) had forecast the revival of monsoon from July 10. However, in the last five days (July 12-16), rainfall has been 6 per cent lower than the LPA.

South India recorded 2 per cent lower than normal rainfall (June 23-July 12), while Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu received higher rains. Karnataka saw a 37 per cent deficit during this period, following which the state's total acreage reduced.

The east and northeast regions recorded rainfall that was 23 per cent lower than normal. However, this will not have a major impact as the sowing window for its key crop paddy will remain open over the next one month, according to the report.

'That said, the monsoon trajectory needs to be monitored closely to understand its impact on kharif crops in marketing year 2021,' it added.

Sowing of kharif crops like paddy normally begins with the onset of southwest monsoon, while harvesting starts from October onwards.

(PTI)