Is a vertical split in the BJP imminent? If the ongoing infighting within the party is any yardstick to gauge the situation, the answer is in the affirmative.
While the political bombshell dropped by party veterans like L. K. Advani, M.M. Joshi, Shanta Kumar and Yashwant Sinha on the Bihar poll debacle questioning the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi kicked off a storm of protest within the party, team Modi fuelled the discontentment by exercising oppressive measures against the elders.
In the garb of giving out a reply to the displeasure expressed by the veterans over Modi’s credentials, former party Chiefs and ministers in the Modi cabinet, Nitin Gadkari and Venkaiah Naidu, surcharged the situation within the party by questioning the locus standi of Advani to blame the present leadership for the poll-debacle. Gadkari unequivocally reminded that the party had to suffer defeat under the leadership of Advani too while Naidu suggested that Modi not be singled out and blamed for the defeat and to accept collective responsibility instead.
Incidentally, the suggestion about collective responsibility remained missing during the elections when the son of the soil and actor-turned-BJP MP from Patna Sahib, Shatrughan Sinha heaped scorn on the party’s central leadership for ignoring the local leaders. He was quite vocal throughout the elections against the manner he was kept away from the electioneering. Going across party lines, he made political overtures in public towards the party’s arch rivals including Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and RJD Chief Lalu Prasad Yadav during and after the polls, daring the BJP leadership to take action against him. Sinha called on both the leaders in person during the elections sparking off speculation. Even last week in Nagpur, Sinha reiterating his stand retorted, ‘
Agar sach bolna bagawat hai to hum bhi bagi hain (if speaking out the truth is rebellion, then I am a rebel).’
Similarly, former Union Home Secretary and BJP MP from Arrah, R.K. Singh had accused the party leadership of selling out party tickets to persons of criminal antecedents ignoring local leaders. Subsequently, speculation was rife that the BJP was contemplating major action against the two MPs after the elections.
The questions, however, that remained unanswered are: Why did the party veterans react to the poll-strategy so late while Advani and Joshi were playing the role of mentors in the party? Were the time, issues and sequence chosen by the party veterans to rant the air with their vociferous attacks in a sequel to the face-off between the BJP and RSS over the controversial statement on quota system merely a coincidence? Did the early reaction by the veterans script a different story for the BJP in the Bihar elections? And, why did the BJP high command remain reluctant to take action against the dissident MPs for their alleged anti-party activities during the elections?
In fact, there were factors that aided the suspicion to grow about the ulterior motive behind the delayed reaction by veterans. When Sinha and Singh questioned the modus operandi of the party leadership in the elections openly putting their political careers at risk, the veterans remained tightlipped. But, they were, subsequently, quick to wage a virtual war against the high command when the pro-Modi leadership was gearing up to initiate disciplinary action against adversaries within the party in the garb of their dubious role and pass the buck on to others like RSS for the poll debacle.
In order to salvage their credentials, the pro-Modi camp identified controversial statements by Sinha, Singh and RSS Chief Mohan Bhagwat as their tentative targets. RSS Chief Mohan Bhagwat had also made controversial statements on the quota system during the elections.
Bhagwat is, on the other hand, believed to have been on the lookout for some counter-offensive measures against the threat of suffering a possible loss of face for his politically sensitive suggestion to review the quota system in the country. It is largely believed that in order to settle his score with Modi and his confidants, the RSS Chief had been left with no option except to rope in the party veterans who have already been suffering humiliation for being ignored within the party since the formation of the Modi Government at the Centre. However, the reactions by veterans virtually rescued the RSS from being accused for the poll debacle and cautioned the high command against a possible backlash if action was initiated against the two disgruntled MPs.
On the part of the veterans too, it was an opportune time to cash-in on the situation to muster the RSS’ support in lieu of lending their voice against team Modi. Notably, it was the RSS that was supposed to have played a key role in the anointment of Modi as PM candidate before the Parliament elections and subsequently that of Amit Shah as BJP President. It is believed that even a few key portfolios in the Modi Cabinet were distributed to the leaders from the non-Modi camp at the behest of the RSS.
However, rapprochement measures are on to allay the discontentment within the party. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley held secret parleys with Advani and Joshi, while his deputy in the Finance Ministry, Jayant Sinha is supposed to have been drafted to make his father Yashwant Sinha understand the dire consequences of the protest that could jeopardize his (Jayant Sinha’s) political career too. Although the senior Sinha refused to divulge details about the future course of action after meeting Advani and Joshi recently, he is believed to have suggested the party mentors to go slow.
Significantly, the RSS is playing safe to retain its non-political identity. It kept itself away from being forced into in a direct confrontation with the BJP and preferred to carry out a tirade against the party by proxy instead. It is evident from the fact that the RSS neither held any secret parleys with the veterans so far to discuss the future course of action on the issue nor did it allow disgruntled leaders like Shatrughan Sinha to call on Bhagwat when the former sought an appointment with the RSS Chief for obvious reasons.
To top it all, the present infighting within the BJP may confound the crisis further in view of two major factors: First, the two-year tenure of Amit Shah as the BJP President is going to end in December itself and the RSS that is supposed to play a key role again in either extension of Shah’s tenure or appointment of a new incumbent, may stand by the nominee from the anti-Modi camp, presumably accentuating differences between the two factions within the party.
Second, the BJP cannot afford to go to polls that are due next year in Pondicherry, Assam, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Kerala without restoring its house in order. The present complex situation may amount to self-annihilation for the party in the forthcoming elections.
