India On Right Trajectory Despite Turbulent Period Ahead

India and the world are headed for a very turbulent period for the next few years, cautions Jayadev Ranade, President of the Centre for China Analysis and Strategy. Citing that there will be changes in the global world order, a resetting of alliances and relationships, and a “re-networking” of the distribution chains, Ranade points out that the decision-makers, governments and people of today will live through this period of change.

This is also the key driver behind his most recent book ‘Strategic Challenges India in 2030’.

“The book is about the strategic challenges that India is likely to face. I had some thoughts on this and as I spoke with more people, I felt we need to put things together and see what these challenges are, which directions they will come from, what is the nature of these challenges and whether can we spread them out,” Ranade explains in his address at the fourth edition of the India Business Literature Festival (IBLF)’s Gurugram Chapter that took place on January 11, 2023.

For the Policymakers

As Ranade laid bare the challenges, the book delved into the areas of geopolitics, ground, sea & air forces, science & technology and the environment. “These are all factors that will impinge on us directly. It does not have economics because without money, in any case, you cannot get anything done. But we also did not have the space,” says Ranade.

He adds here that if a book is very voluminous, people tend to not read it. “For the audience we were targeting, which is the policymakers, we needed something quick, easy to read and that delivered the punch. The book is meant as a concise but comprehensive understanding of what we are facing and from that, figure out what we should be doing.”

India on the Right Trajectory

In a conversation at the forum with Bhuvan Lall, Executive Chairman at Lall Brothers Media & Entertainment, Ranade addressed a question on whether this is India’s century.

“No rise is inexorable. History has shown that there is a cycle. Whatever goes up, has to come down. India is on the right track with a good trajectory. There have been hiccups but we have come out stronger. Some of our systems have shown they are capable of dealing with uncertainties,” Ranade says.

He also explains that while the same is the case with China as well, there are changes. China has had a good run so far and has on several occasions claimed that its system of governance is better than that of any other in the democratic world but Ranade contests this. The Centre for China Analysis and Strategy’s President says, “China is now getting into a difficult place. The country’s growth rate has dropped. Some Chinese economists put it at a negative or 1.5 per cent growth rate. Officially, they say it is over 3 per cent but they are in deep trouble.”

Ranade cites wage cuts and bonus withdrawals at the centre level in China, the mounting unemployment and the like as some of the markers of the troubled waters.

For him, India’s growth story is on track.