I Am Confused: Why So Many Got Bihar Poll Prediction Wrong

I was 100% accurate on my predictions of the outcome of the 2015 Bihar elections. Clearly I wasn't the only one. There were many others. In media, in the bureaucracy, and certainly in the non-BJP sections of society - even if in retrospect. But, if I - sitting outside the mainframe of Indian politics - could predict this outcome, why couldn't the smarter politicians of the ruling party. I am confused …

The charm of the BJP was that it worked collaboratively. Today the strong voice of dissent by BJP party elders has left the nation confused. I hope more than just a little confused. This personality cult thing was bad according to the BJP who swore to give the country "achche din". Then in the midst of the campaign we began to hear radio spots that said "every vote is a vote for Modi". Along with some 31% of the population I too got swept away. I voted for the BJP symbol and almost two years later still have no clue who my MP is. I voted for Modi since the personality cult thing was bad. I guess I was confused. I still am confused.

I didn't vote for Arun Jaitely primarily because I wasn't in Amritsar. But then neither did most people in Amritsar. I didn't vote for Amit Shah either - hopefully someone did - because between the two of them they run India. While our Prime Minister woos global audiences, ironically without our articulate and intelligent External Affairs Minister in tow. So what does she do? I am confused.

From the bastion of Benares - India's holiest and arguably one of its most delightful cities - and indeed all through electioneering in early 2014 we were told the BJP would deal effectively with the likes of daamaadji (as businessman Robert Vadra, husband of Priyanka Gandhi was affectionately referred to) who personified corruption along with the wily DLF group. Yet, the government in power waited for 18 months to remove a measly special security status at airports that he had asked to be removed from even during UPA2. I can understand UPA2 with its BJP-labeled-bad-thing of personality cult not doing this. But the BJP ruled government waited until Vadra went public saying he did not want special privileges and would go from airport to airport whitening out his name on the list of personalities exempt from security checks. Then they swiftly removed his name. Surely such names being included or removed go through a process. Or can anyone get his/her name included or removed at will ? I am confused.

As an ordinary Indian citizen I am missing my Prime Minister. I deeply appreciate the fact that globally he is on the front pages with is stadium jamborees filled to the brim with cheering NRIs. But, I am confused. NRIs can't vote in Indian elections. So why this fascination with a group that left India for brighter prospects? Is our Prime Minister hoping to attract them back to India? I am confused. These wonderful people succeeded brilliantly because conditions in the land of their adoption were conducive to such ballsy success. Unless we fix conditions in India to allow many such success stories we may end up just adding to the bottom-line of various airlines (poor Air India won't be the only beneficiary) with these global citizens flying back to their adopted countries. Unless we fix what ails India in terms of welcoming entrepreneurship and collaborative working we will merely add to the exploding population of frustrated Indians. So why is our beloved Prime Minister putting the cart before the horse? I am confused.