How Bihar Changes Things

The BJP-led NDA’s debacle in the Bihar state assembly election could well be a turning point in the party’s history, as well as in Modi’s government, for more than one reason.

Firstly, like the anti-Congress sentiment earlier, anti-BJPism will be the new mantra for many regional political formations, especially in states such as Assam and Uttar Pradesh, which go to the polls in the next two years, and where the saffron party has a sizable presence.

In the immediate context, the idea of anti-BJPism is likely to be very evident in the winter session of Parliament, which begins on 26 November.

Thus the BJP’s main challenge will be to negotiate bumpy rides and do business with opposition parties — coming together on a common ground on issues such as “rising intolerance in the country” and “provocative statements” made by a clutch of union ministers — without sounding arrogant or confrontationist.

A couple of NDA ministers told BW Businessworld that, emboldened by the Bihar verdict, the Opposition’s belligerence may result in a total washout, much like the Parliament’s monsoon session. Many Opposition leaders that BW Businessworld spoke to said that while the session would certainly be stormy, the responsibility of running Parliament “lay squarely with the government, particularly the Prime Minister”.

Fresh from the Bihar victory, the Janata alliance and Congress will try to rally other Opposition parties. As Janata Dal president Sharad Yadav told BW Businessworld, consolidating an anti-BJP alliance “would be his priority”.

If a rejuvenated Congress, the Janata parivar, the Left and other Opposition parties together succeed in making Parliament dysfunctional, crucial legislations such as the GST will be delayed.

Apart from GST, the government needs to build consensus on labour and environmental laws, the bankruptcy code bill, negotiable instruments arbitration bill, real estate regulation and development bill, foreign universities bill, and the National Judicial Appointments Commission issue, during the session.

And it’s here that the statesmanship and magnanimity of the Modi government — in how it reaches out to the Opposition — will be tested. It was found wanting in this respect during the last monsoon session.

Senior Congress leader P. Chidambaram sounded a warning of sorts when he said the PM had “two to three weeks for a course correction” (in piping down, and reaching out to the Opposition).

Several senior Congress leaders have told BW Businessworld that “in its arrogance, the government had kept Congress president Sonia Gandhi and Chidambaram out of the loop while negotiating for the GST Constitutional Amendment Bill”.

A chastened government, however, is willing to talk to everyone, including Chidambaram, Sonia and Rahul Gandhi on the GST, this time around.
But the main Opposition party won’t relent easily. Its deputy leader in the Rajya Sabha, Anand Sharma said, “They have to get off the high horse. There are issues like intolerance and the way social activists, scientists and historians have been treated. It’s the responsibility of the PM to ensure the smooth functioning of Parliament”.

If this sounds like an ominous warning, there’s more to come. JD (U) leader K. C. Tyagi said the combined Opposition would settle for nothing less than the resignations “of at least a couple of ministers who are in the habit of making controversial statements”.

A top government functionary said on condition of anonymity that the government was devising a strategy of doing business with non-Congress, non-Janata parties, if they are bent on disrupting parliamentary proceedings.

The Modi government, perhaps, had a clear inkling of things to come; it is already engaged in diplomacy with parties such as the Samajwadi Party (SP), Trinamool Congress, Biju Janata Dal (BJD), Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and AIADMK. In October, the government sent a team of MPs from SP, Trinamool, BJD and NCP to the UN on a 15-day tour, in an apparent effort to keep them in good humour.

The BJP hopes its efforts to win over the regional groupings would be reciprocated.

These regional parties, save for the AIADMK, meanwhile, are steadfast in their support for GST.

“On GST, real estate Bill, and FDI, Nitish Kumar is with the government, but there are other concerns of national importance,” said Tyagi.

Trinamool national spokesperson Derek O’brien told BW Businessworld: “On GST, our view has been and will be in support.”

Whether or not the government’s divide-and-rule gambit works with the Opposition parties remains to be seen. What is not open to question is that the winter session would be stormy — that is if Parliament is allowed to function at all.

The second important fallout of the Bihar verdict, government officials say, would be a Cabinet reshuffle, where the deadwood and underperformers would be weeded out, including some who are from Bihar.

The third fallout of Bihar is already being seen in the BJP’s organisational apparatus, with the Modi-Amit Shah-Arun Jaitley hegemony being questioned by party veterans. There have been other disgruntled voices as well. Sources say that in January, when Shah’s term comes to an end (he is serving the remainder of his predecessor Rajnath Singh’s term after he joined the Union Cabinet), he may not get another term — much against Modi’s wishes — and that the RSS may want to have a greater say in the running of the party.

(This story was published in BW | Businessworld Issue Dated 30-11-2015)