Globally, Only 16% Expect Stable Outlook In Next 2 Years: Report

Amid the ongoing geopolitical crisis around the globe, the World Economic Forum's global risks perception survey 2023-2024 (GRPS) has said that only 16 per cent expect a stable or calm outlook in the next two years. 

Surveyed in September 2023, the majority of respondents (54 per cent) anticipate some instability and a moderate risk of global catastrophes, while another 27 per cent expect greater turbulence and three per cent expect global catastrophic risks to materialise in the short term. 

The outlook is markedly more negative over the ten-year timeframe, with 63 per cent of respondents expecting a stormy or turbulent outlook and less than ten per cent expecting a calm or stable situation. 

The aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has exposed cracks in societies that are being further strained by episodic upheaval. Yet the global system has thus far proved surprisingly resilient. 

A widely anticipated recession failed to materialise last year, and financial turbulence was quickly subdued, but the outlook remains uncertain. Political strife and violent conflicts, from Niger and Sudan to Gaza and Israel, have captured the attention and apprehension of populations worldwide in some instances while attracting little focus in others. 

These developments have not yet led to wider regional conflicts – nor have they created globally destabilising consequences such as those seen at the initial outbreak of the war in Ukraine or the Covid-19 pandemic – but their long-term outlook could bring further shocks, the report added.

GRPS results for 2024, 2026 and 2034 highlight current crises that corrode resilience, as well as new and rapidly evolving sources of risk that will reshape the next decade. 

For the one-year time frame, respondents were asked to select up to five risks that they feel are most likely to present a material crisis on a global scale in 2024.

After the hottest Northern Hemisphere summer in recorded history in 2023,2 two-thirds of respondents selected Extreme weather (66 per cent) as the top risk faced in 2024. El Niño, or the warming phase of the alternating El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, is expected to strengthen and persist until May this year.

"This could continue to set new records in heat conditions, with extreme heatwaves, drought, wildfires and flooding anticipated," it added.